2/28/12 - Avoiding a 96% Trend

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 2/28/12 - Avoiding a 96% Trend
GameHunter PM GameHunter
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Posted: 2/28/2012 5:44:18 PM
Sorry to all who followed me on Samford this past Saturday. They built a 9 point halftime lead and spit the bit in the 2nd half. No excuses but a painful loss it was.

I really like Indiana tonight. I think it's a great spot but I have to avoid one of the strongest and most impressive trends of the CBB season.

Tom Izzo is a brilliant strategist and tactician and there is clearly no better CBB coach at making halftime adjustments. How else does one explain that Michigan State is an incredible 24-1 ATS in second halves this year? THAT'S ASTOUNDING!

Well, I want to use those numbers to my advantage. If Indiana is the right side in my opinion, they are going to need to do it with a good first half and I don't want to flirt with bucking a 24-1 ATS record.

INDIANA +1.5 (1ST HALF) (2.25 UNITS)



Laroja PM Laroja
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Posted: 2/28/2012 5:50:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GameHunter:

Sorry to all who followed me on Samford this past Saturday. They built a 9 point halftime lead and spit the bit in the 2nd half. No excuses but a painful loss it was.

I really like Indiana tonight. I think it's a great spot but I have to avoid one of the strongest and most impressive trends of the CBB season.

Tom Izzo is a brilliant strategist and tactician and there is clearly no better CBB coach at making halftime adjustments. How else does one explain that Michigan State is an incredible 24-1 ATS in second halves this year? THAT'S ASTOUNDING!

Well, I want to use those numbers to my advantage. If Indiana is the right side in my opinion, they are going to need to do it with a good first half and I don't want to flirt with bucking a 24-1 ATS record.

INDIANA +1.5 (1ST HALF) (2.25 UNITS)





That's crazy man.
POTUS PM POTUS
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Posted: 2/28/2012 5:54:28 PM
moslo35 PM moslo35
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:04:40 PM
Thanks for posting this gamehunter . R u playing anything else ? Any NBA ?
Posted using a mobile device.
composite PM composite
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:07:14 PM

Where'd u get this stat?  Are there other stats on 2H trends?

I think I'm betting Michigan State 2H no matter what the number is....

tmoney618 PM tmoney618
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:08:50 PM
GameHunter PM GameHunter
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:09:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by moslo35:

Thanks for posting this gamehunter . R u playing anything else ? Any NBA ?


Wisc GB +3
GameHunter PM GameHunter
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:09:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Where'd u get this stat?  Are there other stats on 2H trends?

I think I'm betting Michigan State 2H no matter what the number is....



Read about it a few games ago and have been following it since.
composite PM composite
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:16:40 PM

Well, according to this site, Michigan State is good (11-1-1 ATS is damn good), but not 24-1 ATS good.

http://beyondthebets.com/2012/02/18/one-half-at-a-time-looking-at-the-best-worst-teams-nationally-by-1st-2nd-half-ats-records/

I was gonna pound Michigan State 2H no matter what, but perhaps I'll temper that a little bit.

oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:26:53 PM
MSU is 23-1-1 unless I added them wrong. Still by far a phenomenal accomplishment. If we all bet like maniacs we could have retired of this sick, sick run...  
GameHunter PM GameHunter
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:34:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Well, according to this site, Michigan State is good (11-1-1 ATS is damn good), but not 24-1 ATS good.

http://beyondthebets.com/2012/02/18/one-half-at-a-time-looking-at-the-best-worst-teams-nationally-by-1st-2nd-half-ats-records/

I was gonna pound Michigan State 2H no matter what, but perhaps I'll temper that a little bit.



Your info is wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!

They are 23-1-1 or 24-1 ATS their last 25 depending on what line people got Feb 5th against Michigan as MSU won by 2 and the line was -1.5 and -2 depending on where you shop.
GameHunter PM GameHunter
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:35:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Well, according to this site, Michigan State is good (11-1-1 ATS is damn good), but not 24-1 ATS good.

http://beyondthebets.com/2012/02/18/one-half-at-a-time-looking-at-the-best-worst-teams-nationally-by-1st-2nd-half-ats-records/

I was gonna pound Michigan State 2H no matter what, but perhaps I'll temper that a little bit.



MSU has clearly played more than 13 games this season.
MistakeHitter PM MistakeHitter
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:39:19 PM
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101279868

Posted MSU 2nd half stats 4 days ago and jez and MR only two who noticed
composite PM composite
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:40:20 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by GameHunter:



Your info is wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!

They are 23-1-1 or 24-1 ATS their last 25 depending on what line people got Feb 5th against Michigan as MSU won by 2 and the line was -1.5 and -2 depending on where you shop.

Don't shoot the messenger. That site only had it going back 13 games or so, and it was the only thing I could find after a few minutes of googling. 

I'm not accusing you of lying or anything. I just went to verify the gaudy 24-1 ATS stat and when I found different info, I thought I'd share it.

I guess I am pounding Sparty on the 2H after all.

 

oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:40:48 PM
This should clear any confusion...

http://halflines.com/team/?id=1105&fullschedule=1
svensk PM svensk
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:41:16 PM
moslo35 PM moslo35
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:41:39 PM
gamehunter just the 2 plays tonight?  btw thanks man i look for ur posts everyday....please post if u play anything else..
composite PM composite
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:43:01 PM

What I love about this trend is I could it being something that oddsmakers *don't* adjust to. 

2H is normally based on a formula - 50% of the FG line, 100% of the FG line, dog favored if fav jumps to DD lead, etc, etc.

composite PM composite
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:44:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

This should clear any confusion...

http://halflines.com/team/?id=1105&fullschedule=1

Thanks!!! I've been looking for a site like this for awhile. 

oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:44:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Don't shoot the messenger. That site only had it going back 13 games or so, and it was the only thing I could find after a few minutes of googling. 

I'm not accusing you of lying or anything. I just went to verify the gaudy 24-1 ATS stat and when I found different info, I thought I'd share it.

I guess I am pounding Sparty on the 2H after all.

 

He's not shooting you. BeyontheBets is usually a solid read and good reference. Not exactly sure why that article that is dated Feb 18th only has certain games listed in the ATS. Even 10 days ago they still would have been better than 11-1ats. That said if you blindly bet on MSU tonight 2nd half you clearly arn't reading enough stuff from Beyondthebets as they religiously preach betting market value. And after wind of this sick stat 7 trend it's more than safe to say that the value flew out the window a long time ago. 

Just my 2 sense. BOL 2night game...
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:46:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

Thanks!!! I've been looking for a site like this for awhile. 

The link you posted actually had a link for it. I'm guessing you didn't read it...

Halflines is a solid site for any 2h bettor...
sloop703 PM sloop703
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:51:01 PM
yep, i saw this on twitter last week and i had to rub my eyes. but MSU's still strong against the spread in the first half, so i'm just gonna sit on my hands and see what the line is for the 2nd half.

definitely some teams out there that have opposite spread numbers for the 2 halves. tennessee state's one that comes to mind.

good looks GH, hope you get it
oddsbuster PM oddsbuster
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Posted: 2/28/2012 6:55:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sloop703:

yep, i saw this on twitter last week and i had to rub my eyes. but MSU's still strong against the spread in the first half, so i'm just gonna sit on my hands and see what the line is for the 2nd half.

definitely some teams out there that have opposite spread numbers for the 2 halves. tennessee state's one that comes to mind.

good looks GH, hope you get it
I was cashing in very quietly recently on Tenn St 2h overs. Tenn St 2h half games have encountered like 14 of 15 of the last 15 games have had higher scoring 2h's which has led to many 2h over tickets cashing. Lot's of rock solid info out there to cash in on the past couple weeks. 
PorkyinNS PM PorkyinNS
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Posted: 2/28/2012 8:00:53 PM
nice hit....I'm on Indiana +3.5 FG....you playing MSU -5 2h?
composite PM composite
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Posted: 2/28/2012 8:08:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

The link you posted actually had a link for it. I'm guessing you didn't read it...

Halflines is a solid site for any 2h bettor...

nope. totally missed it. just focused on Mich St 2H ATS record.

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