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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Line Movement Question?
ATLGettinPaper
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ATLGettinPaper
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#1
Posted: 2/25/2012 3:04:03 AM
So when you bet, do you bet with line movement or against it?  Just curious?  Because I thought I knew what the darn I was doin concerning live movement, but apparently I have no idea, lol.

I went with the line movement in the Butler game and got fucked.  Wondering what you guys do?  I don't usually look at line movement, but I just noticed that the line moved in Butler's favor today, and we all know how that turned out.

Need some advice going into Saturday.
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KentuckyA-Lew send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#2
Posted: 2/25/2012 3:07:05 AM
Personally Im not much of a line movement guy.  Who the darn knows what the line makers are doing.  I cap a game if i see an advantage with 1 squad i back them...  Dont care which way the line moves after my bets placed. 
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ATLGettinPaper
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#3
Posted: 2/25/2012 3:09:33 AM
I don't usually look at it myself either, but I think it comes into play on certain games.
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#4
Posted: 2/25/2012 3:11:33 AM
Dont pay much attention before placing the bet as long as there is no key injuries/news etc im missing.

But i tell you what....I sure seem to win much more when line movement heads the direction I am betting after I place a wager. Not sure why but a weird anomaly for me
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#5
Posted: 2/25/2012 3:11:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KentuckyA-Lew:

Personally Im not much of a line movement guy.  Who the darn knows what the line makers are doing.  I cap a game if i see an advantage with 1 squad i back them...  Dont care which way the line moves after my bets placed. 

The End.



I made myself nuts for YEARS tracking line moves in hoops.  The truth is, none of it is worth two shits.  The moves are wrong as often as they are right.

The NFL is a different story.  Following the smart money usually pays off.
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#6
Posted: 2/25/2012 3:12:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ATLGettinPaper:

I don't usually look at it myself either, but I think it comes into play on certain games.


Yeah definitely agree.  

If a line is inflated to much i will pass...  For instance tomorrow Mizzou vs Kansas...  Started at -6, bet up to -8.  I will still be backing Kansas as i have it as a double digit win...  
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#7
Posted: 2/25/2012 3:14:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sal_Tessio:


The End.



I made myself nuts for YEARS tracking line moves in hoops.  The truth is, none of it is worth two shits.  The moves are wrong as often as they are right.

The NFL is a different story.  Following the smart money usually pays off.


 Yep
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#8
Posted: 2/25/2012 7:30:00 AM

Years ago a Tout who sells his picks on line and does very well told me this when I asked him about this topic.  "9 times out of ten,  the team that was originally favored still go with".  He said there are unusua situations when the lines jumps crazy like Alabama a couple of weeks ago then you have to re think it. 

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#9
Posted: 2/25/2012 7:37:45 AM
If you could bet the opening line into the closing line, you would be the best capper on here (or just about anywhere.) Problem is, by the time you know the closing line, it is too late. So, worrying about the line movement after it has already moved is mostly useless.

Here is a good article about this: http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue83/king-yao-beat-closing-line.php
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#10
Posted: 2/25/2012 8:26:25 AM
ATL, I watch line movement for THREE main reasons, BUT do NOT bet on line movements themselves, but rather the team. Always bet the team, NOT just according to which way a line is moving. There ARE people who bet that way, but IMO the key is knowing WHY a line is moving.

The first reason for watching line movement is it can show that there Could be something CHANGING under the circumstances of the game that were NOT originally calculated inti the opening spread. Things like injuries and kids not playing are some "live news" that can affect the outcome, or at least the margin of win.

Could you imagine what the Marquette/West Virginia line would have done had Buzz Williams OFFICIALLY made a statement that he was suspending 4 of his players for parts of the game and that got out via mass media on ESPN?

After inspecting a game to make sure a line isn't moving because of a previously unknown factor, there are two things you can gather are happening from line movement.

The 2nd thing line movement can show you is WHERE the BIG MONEY is. I hate using these words because of the rhetoric that comes back about them, but there is "Public" money and "sharp" money. All that is referring to is the difference in one team getting LOTS of SMALL bets on it where the Majority of consensus of bettors are AND the other side that has LESS people on, but is getting BIG amounts of money coming in on it. When the "unpopular" team gets MORE money on it than the "popular" side, the lines usually start to FIRSTLY change the money line odds of that spread to pull in money on that line to even it out monetarily BEFORE changing the spread number so that the book doesn't get screwed with Lopsided Monetary Action on a number.

I probably lost some of you on that, but it makes perfect sense when you sort it all out. When a line is moving in the OPPOSITE direction of the 70% consensus of people, all that is telling you is that there are LARGE SUMS OF MONEY coming in on the "unpopular" team.

Im not saying bet this or bet that. "Sharp" money loses too, but usually the people who have THAT much money to pop on a team USUALLY is the more informed and looks deeper into a matchup than the "public" that bets on brand name teams, nationally-ranked numbers beside the teams names, and teams that look good on the outside, but never get looked into deep enough.

Like I said, I don't bet with or against the BIG money, it's just cause for concern to DIG DEEPER (most-likely into the "unpopular" team) to find things that the Public Doesn't See At 1st-Glance.

The third thing that can be found that can be of value is that a line could just Flat-Out have been put out too high or too low. Oddsmakers and their computers are EXTREMELY accurate at putting out lines that'll attract EQUAL MONETARY ACTION so that Vegas and the sportsbooks can make 10% juice EVERYTIME versuses having LOP-SIDED MONETARY ACTION on a line and having the "wrong" team cover, hence losing the books money.

Oddsmakers and their computers HAVE to accommodate for the fact that there ARE "sharps" that can drop BIG amounts of money against the public. Usually you can tell THOSE lines when you look at FORUMS like this one and you see "WTF?!?!" and LOTS of disbelief that a line is "spool low". Usually you see people saying that it's a "sure" bet and you see them dropping their balance on a game.

WHENEVER YOUR EYEBROWS GO UP, YOU CAN'T BELIEVE A LINE IS SOOOO LOW OR A "GIFT" FROM THE VEGAS GODS.....just step back.....take some deep breaths....AND DIG DEEPER!!!!!! There may be something there that you misses.

Best of Luck Brother

TexasD
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#11
Posted: 2/25/2012 10:12:00 AM
Some people claim that Vegas puts out bad lines on some games to pull on boat loads of cash on one side like Vegas "knows" something or there is a game that's fixed. "Vegas" and all the other sportsbooks make money All the time by charging 10% juice on games. These sportsbooks are Businesses and THEY don't get gamble, WE the bettors do.

SOMETIMES oddsmakers may put out a line that was miscalculated and DOESN'T bring in equal money on each side and the line can't move fast enough to keep the money even. Very seldom does that happen, and sometimes the "right" team wins and they DO make more money than just the usual 10% juice. Sometimes the "wrong" team wins and some books can actually take a loss.

Sure Id imagine that there has been instances that a book DOES put a line out TRYING to get lop-sided action, but then that would make them Gamblers and not a Business.
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rxpert
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#12
Posted: 2/25/2012 10:17:55 AM
ignore them. I used to track them in FB &BB and found it's 50/50. If you win, you think you went w/ sharp $. If you lose, you think it's a trap. But as always, i'd say to set up some parameters. e.g. lines <10. move by 2 pts or more, & track for significant period. My guess is 50/50.
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#13
Posted: 2/25/2012 10:17:58 AM
Not all steam is good steam, if you touch it too late, you'll get BURNT. 
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#14
Posted: 2/25/2012 10:26:11 AM
Last night the Marquette halftime line went from -3.5 to -4.5. You typically never see a halftime line move a whole point, it was relevant in this case however I agree with earlier post that it means little overall. Good luck 
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Skipbone
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#15
Posted: 2/25/2012 10:28:42 AM

TexasD types too much w/o saying anything.

Bet THE TEAM YOU THINK WILL COVER.

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#16
Posted: 2/25/2012 10:54:25 AM
Skipbone, you've contributed soooo much to the debate of who will cover. You sound like you just pick names, cross your fingers, & hope for the best. Quit flipping coins and start doing research. I can tell you are you by your unwillingness to look at BOTH SIDES of a matchup. You seem rather blind, but sure...keep posting junk on my threads, you aren't contributing anything kid.

Best of Luck on wherever you put your money.
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#17
Posted: 2/25/2012 11:10:20 AM
TexasD post was a good one really, I make myself a shortcut to re-read it later.
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Skipbone
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#18
Posted: 2/25/2012 12:03:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TexasD:

Skipbone, you've contributed soooo much to the debate of who will cover. You sound like you just pick names, cross your fingers, & hope for the best. Quit flipping coins and start doing research. I can tell you are you by your unwillingness to look at BOTH SIDES of a matchup. You seem rather blind, but sure...keep posting junk on my threads, you aren't contributing anything kid.

Best of Luck on wherever you put your money.

I'm always entertained by guys who post basic information about handicapping and then act like they invented it.

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