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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Buying points...
Cubbies0011 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:05:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VandalRevival:

I teased Kentucky down to 4.  Thats my style and it works for me. 


I have no problem teasing kentucky, thats much better and more profitable than buying points straight out
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moslo35 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#27
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:13:33 AM
im still waiting to see u post the ticket u said u would post...i guess u lied again
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#28
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:19:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by moslo35:

im still waiting to see u post the ticket u said u would post...i guess u lied again


wow i guess u really do have NO life, if u can see, u cant post attachments here dumb behind, i live in vegas so i actually go to a real casino not some stupid online bull garbage
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#29
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:20:55 AM
oh but ur the one that said u were going to post the ticket..i knew u were a lier...that proves it
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#30
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:29:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by moslo35:

oh but ur the one that said u were going to post the ticket..i knew u were a lier...that proves it


cause i care what u think...go back to the middle east and learn english friggin raghead
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#31
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:33:02 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Cubbies0011:



cause i care what u think...go back to the middle east and learn english friggin raghead

im not from the middle east im actually from the middle west....dont be a lier and a racist...u not good man...u go to hell if u be lier and say u bet miss st when u lost on kentucky

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#32
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:34:03 AM
i think its depend on how you look at it. i buy alot of pts and sometime i lose but a lot of times i win too. i dont buy points for big spreads cause you need blow outs to win those kind of games anyways. but i do buy pts moving lines from like 3pts to 5pt. i play alot of small moneylines. so in some sense thats kind like buying pts. like if a team is -2 pts. i rather just play the moneyline and not even mess with the spread cause why bet on a team thats -2 and have them win by 1. rather just pay the extra 10percent.

i have won alot of games buying the pts. i figure if you hit one game buying the pts. it makes up for all the other time you lose doing it
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#33
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:35:58 AM
Well I bought Vagina to -1.5 tonight and won.  Every single dingleberry who took Vagina -2 or Va Tech +2 didn't win... just a thought.  Also, most pushed on Miss State and most pushed on Illinois.  You buy Illinois to 16.5 and it's a lucky cover.
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#34
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:37:16 AM
By the way, I went 2-0-1 on the games above.  Buying points likely isn't a great investment in the long run, but it's sure nice when you win while others push.  Bough KU to +3.5 @ MU in a game where I had a dime riding a few weeks ago and got the win while everyone else watching the game got a push...
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#35
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:39:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PDiddyDD:

Well I bought Vagina to -1.5 tonight and won.  Every single dingleberry who took Vagina -2 or Va Tech +2 didn't win... just a thought.  Also, most pushed on Miss State and most pushed on Illinois.  You buy Illinois to 16.5 and it's a lucky cover.
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#36
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:40:24 AM
for example lets just say that kentucky game. if kentucky was -9.5 and you took kentucky -8.5 (-130) buying 1 pt. and bet 100 dollars. now instead of losing 110 you just won 100. so thats a 210 dollar swing that you should of lost. now you can use that 210 and buy 1pt for like 10 games and if you lose an extra 20 percent its ok. you break even from the money you have recently won from doing it

just a rough estimate so dont qoute me on the exact numbers
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#37
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:52:27 AM
YO PACKERS 92! I have been betting since you were in diapers & buying half-points isn't always dumb.  You have to know when the spread are tight and bet accordingly.  Seems like when I'm rolling well, I'm buying half-points that turn losses into pushes and pushes into losses. 

You peeps who don't understand the value are ignorant.  Most of the large casinos in Vegas won't even allow you to buy half-points.  Also, in football, do you love having -3.5 or +2.5 when you could have -3 or +3 instead... How about when you have -7 and could get +7.5 or -6.5... dingleberry morons in general talking in this thread.
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packers1992 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#38
Posted: 2/22/2012 12:54:56 AM

diddy it's not the half point dude. The reason i have theis you wrote vagina. Not becaus eyou buy a half point. I do occasionally too

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#39
Posted: 2/22/2012 3:03:31 PM

Here's the real story on buying points for all you crackheads out there (just kidding - about the crackhead part, not about the real story part). Let's use the example of buying a half point to the push - that is, buying a half point off of a hook, and lets say you bet $100 a game, and say you're an average capper and your win % without buying points would be 50%, winning as many as you lose. But you are buying a half point each time, and each time the number that you bought onto falls it saves a loss and wouild mean a $120 difference, (normally $110 but its $120 here because you're buying a half point) . But each bet you do lose costs you an extra $10. And so for the amount you save to cover the higher juice you pay on your losses, the number you bought onto would have to fall once out of every 12 would-be losses, and since you're a 50% handicapper and there are 12 wins to go along with every 12 losses on average, you're talking about the number falling once every 24 games, or 4.17% of the time. History has shown that in basketball, (and college ends up working out a little differently than pro) certain nunbers fall a litlte more frequently than others. So if history shows that the number you're buying onto falls more frequently than 4.17% of the time, its slightly (there are no numbers where there's what you would call a big edge in doing this) to your advantage to buy, and if the frequency of the number you're buying onto is less than 4.17%, its not. There are more numbers where its not in your favor than numbers where it is. If you buy half points indiscriminately, its not in your favor: after all, why would the house sell you a half point for 10 cents if overall its worth more than that. 

 

   

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#40
Posted: 2/22/2012 4:14:02 PM
I don't buy points, but I don't disparage those who do. I'd tell those who do, just keep track for a statistically significant period. (I used to know this). e.g. After 100 plays of buying points, compare to NOT buying. Math clears up all arguments. Although I doubt most of you have ever done this to determine the viability of buying points. My guess is it's a slight disadvantage to buy points (just imho), but that might be enough to pay for your peace of mind.
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Northernstar send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#41
Posted: 2/22/2012 4:36:24 PM
I agree totally.  Buying points will never be profitable.  I saw Big East on his tweet buy a half on a total.  Even more laughable.  Makes zero sense.  On totals I would rather "sell" and get a plus money proposition if possible.

Don't buy and you will be ahead in the long run.  I would challenge any of the buyers to start a thread and show how buying is profitable.  Do it for just one month.  You will be behind.
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#42
Posted: 2/22/2012 4:48:51 PM
In football, buying half-points can be extremely smart... especially when you have a line like 9.5 or 10.5 and want the 10 number.

In hoops, buying around key numbers like 1.5 to 7 can be smart as well.... just my $.02 and I'll leave it.  You guys go and make fun of peeps for buying half-points, but they buying sure saves my behind a lot of times like last night's Virginia game.
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#43
Posted: 2/22/2012 5:32:13 PM
100% agree with you Cubbies. I've already sampled games, found the percentages that games are even decided by the amount of points bought, and posted all the stats on it.

POINT BUYING IS NOT HELPFUL IN ANY WAY.

People can always point out the 1 or 2 recent times that buying points helped, BUT they will never Look at the 95% of the rest of the games that they are Paying More or Winning Less (depends on how you bet and look at it, it's either/or).

Main thing you can say about buying points:

If a person is buying points, THEY AREN'T SURE ON THE PICK. Why are they betting on a game if they think it's going to be a close game?!?!

These point buyers are NOT gambling to MAKE money...they are gambling because IT WOULDN'T BE FUN IF THEY DIDN'T HAVE MONEY ON A GAME THAT THEY ARE GOING TO WATCH.

PERIOD!

BUT...it IS their money. As long as it ain't MINE! All you can do is try to get them to think about it and change their ways.

Really, what they are REALLY buying is just PIECE OF MIND.
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#44
Posted: 2/22/2012 6:50:37 PM
There CAN be an argument for buying points in football because the point INCREMENTS are 3 and 7, whereas in basketball the increments are 1, 2, and 3.

Basketball points are LINEAR and the Percentages of buying points actually coming into play, are Linear also. Don't forget that the JUICE for buying points is incrementally the same;10 cents per 1/2 point...linear. A lot of books charge Even More Juice than 10 cents for the more you buy, making your odds of making money Even Slimmer.

What's really funny is when people say that they ONLY buy during the games that matter. REALLY?!?! Isn't it illegal for Psychics to gamble? That's not fair that they know what is going to happen! If they really "knew" that they "need" to buy points to win this game....why don't they just take the OTHER TEAM and cover without paying extra juice????

It's amazing what people come up with to make it Right in their heads. Sounds a little crazy to me.
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#45
Posted: 2/22/2012 8:16:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PDiddyDD:

YO PACKERS 92! I have been betting since you were in diapers & buying half-points isn't always dumb.  You have to know when the spread are tight and bet accordingly.  Seems like when I'm rolling well, I'm buying half-points that turn losses into pushes and pushes into losses. 

You peeps who don't understand the value are ignorant.  Most of the large casinos in Vegas won't even allow you to buy half-points.  Also, in football, do you love having -3.5 or +2.5 when you could have -3 or +3 instead... How about when you have -7 and could get +7.5 or -6.5... dingleberry morons in general talking in this thread.

I missed this post by PDiddy. He proves my points Exactly.

"when the spread are tight and bet accordingly" means he is betting on a game that he shouldn't be.  If you don't have a GOOD lean on a team and you have to Buy Points just to make yourself feel better, why even bet the game?

Because you are betting on a game either JUST to bet, or can't ENJOY a game for what it ORIGINALLY IS.

He's a Coin-flipper.

"do you love having -3.5 or +2.5 when you could have -3 or +3 instead" means he is buying PEACE OF MIND...AND betting on a game he thinks is going to be close.

If you bet on a line that is around a Field Goal, you SHOULD only bet on it if your lean is that the -3-ish favorite is going to run away with the win and win by Double Digits or if the +3-ish underdog is going to AT LEAST win Straight Up.

NO NEED TO BUY THE HOOK IF YOUR LEAN IS GOOD.

I second Northernstar with the challenge of starting a thread, making picks, buying points, mark the FEW where the points ACTUALLY changed the outcome of the cover, and tally up the other 85-95% where you PAID MORE on lossed and WON LESS on wins.

I only challenge this because MAYBE this would open some rather closed minds in this forum.

Close-minded to making MORE MONEY?!?!?  Your book loves you.

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