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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Tuesday Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:12:14 PM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 35-24, +36.60
February Leans: 36-33


Couple weeks back, I played Evansville in this spot (post #31 here), but the shoe’s on the other foot now. Rather than Creighton going from physical to finesse, now it’s Evansville doing that for two straight games and hitting the road here. When Creighton is hitting shots, they’re good, and they’ve now scored 80+ two straight games. Evansville last couple games on the road have scored 52 and 54. Creighton should exact some revenge in a big-time way here and it should be another 80+ night with a slight bump in the Evansville offense going from weird styles to a more up and down here. Bad spot for Creighton first meeting, but not this time. They shot a season low 18% from the perimeter, and the second season worst 40% from the floor against one of the worst defenses in the MVC and scored less than 60 points for the only time this season. They played their worst game of the season in their worst loss of the season, and were still tied with 3 minutes to go there. Also had an awkward scheme in that game, too. Evansville let them shoot. When Simmons saw that they weren’t hitting, he packed the defense in the paint and basically said if they’re going to lose, they’re going to lose by Creighton hitting jump shots. Probably a good chance he can’t do that tonight on the road, and if he does, well, I don’t think it’s going to end good. First game was Evansville’s title game, revenge should show up here. And I only have a four point difference in home/road line here? I see value.
5* Creighton -10

I will start this by saying that if there is one spot that Illinois gets up for a game the rest of the year, this is probably it. But, I’m going the other way based on a few things. For one, Bruce has lost the players, I’m fairly confident of that. For reference, check out the halftime lead at Nebraska that quickly turned into a 43-7 second half run they allowed to…Nebraska of all teams. Illinois just couldn’t defend, and didn’t look like they cared to do so, either. And, it actually led to tears on the bench and in the locker-room. First meeting this year was the Brandon Paul show, couldn’t miss, and he was the sole reason they were even in the game. I assume Bruce changes the lineup tonight for some odd reason, and if that happens, the offense takes a huge hit regardless of who see’s time on the floor and the defense doesn’t get any better, either. Thad hates Illinois. No reason he takes it easy off a loss, tonight. Thad off a loss last couple years: Win by 24, Win by 31, Win by 17, Win by 10, Win by 10, Win by 19. Again, just a lean. Scared of Illini going in with the motto of doing whatever they want, whenever they want, and I think that’s possibly a good thing if Bruce just lets the talent play without any awkward direction.
Lean: Ohio State -15
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#2
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:12:30 PM
Lean on Wofford here in what I feel is a very good situation in terms of style. UNC Greensboro is the type of team that’s going to depend on quantity rather than quality and there is a good chance they don’t get that quantity value tonight against a snail Wofford squad. If you look at UNC Greensboro’s season thus far, the two lowest possession totals of the season thus far have come in at 64 (Citadel) and 66 (Samford). Other than that, they’ve had the luxury of playing all of their games how they like them: Fast.  If you look at Wofford, they’ve only hit 66 possessions one time in the conference. They lost a few key players off last year’s roster, but they did return quite a bit of minutes, and it’s showing as they are able to control the tempo of the game in almost every game they take part in. Since Wes Miller took over for UNC Greensboro, they’ve played pretty well. They’re actually 10-3 in the conference under Miller, and hold a two game lead over that half of the conference, largely in part to how bad that half of the conference actually is. In fact, they could clinch that half tonight, thus making the season ending game with Elon on Saturday pretty much worthless. Which is part of a reason for a play here. This team isn’t in the best of situations at the present moment. Upset COC, hit the road against Georgia Southern and lost outright, now need and have the chance to clinch the conference tonight at home, otherwise they’re hitting the road on Saturday to face an Elon team for the title. Every single ounce of pressure is on UNC Greensboro to win this game, and pressure versus style really raises a concern here. As I mentioned, Wofford’s going to take this game to a snail. In games that come in at under the average 67 possessions, UNC Greensboro has only partaken in two of those as I mentioned. They beat Citadel by 1, and beat Samford by 2. Is it a coincidence that those are the two worst defenses in the Southern Conference? I don’t think so, and they struggled with them. It should also be pointed out that they have not had the greatest of results  against the other half of the conference. Against the top two teams (Davidson and Georgia Southern), they lost both games rather easily (92-63 and 83-69). They did beat a reeling College of Charleston team twice, but they play essentially the same style. They also have another loss to Furman, who also is in the other half, and that game they gave up another 93 points. In games against the South, teams are averaging 76 points per game on them. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the South is the better half. Better offenses, better defenses, and all-around better basketball. In terms of styles for each team, UNC Greensboro’s going to try and pick up the pace a bit. They pick up the pressure around half court and try to force teams into quick shots. They don’t mind giving up open outside shots, and don’t mind if you score quickly because they’re getting out and running on a make or a miss. With Wofford, they’ll get across half court and get into a Princeton style, quite a few back-cuts, and they make a consistent effort to get the ball in the post. They take a ton of three’s, but those are generally coming on balls that are coming from the inside back out. They look to score in the paint quite a bit, and if the outside shots are falling, then the inside opens up even more. Teams that face UNC Greensboro will get open looks, and I think Wofford will have plenty of them tonight. Defensively, Wofford is pretty sound. They defend pretty decent, and the help defense will always be there. Their defense is really only as good as their offense is. If they can work the ball on offense and run off some clock, then their defense takes care of itself b/c the other team is worn down. It’s been a philosophy of Mike Young since he stepped foot on campus, and something that he has never changed. So, tonight, I think we get quite a few errant shots from UNC Greensboro who will not only be under the pressure of having to win this game to avoid the possible Title game Saturday, but they will also be under the pressure of having to play a totally different style than what they’re accustomed to playing. Within the matchups itself, I like Wofford’s size at the guard/forward position as they have numerous 6’6 or 6’7 mobile guys that can make life difficult on Trevis Simpson for UNC Greensboro, who will be taking a majority of their shots. Simpson’s been dealing with a toe injury, but he did return in their previous game and shot 5/18. Aside from that match-up, there really isn’t a spot on the floor that concerns me on either side. I think Wofford definitely has an advantage in the paint just by having more big bodies, and I would assume UNC Greensboro is going to have to use one of their bigs rather than going with the four guard offense they utilize at times, just to combat the Wofford scoring that occurs in the paint. Wofford’s playing for quite a bit here, too. If they win out, they probably get the #2 seed in the conference tournament which includes a bye. They need a couple Georgia Southern losses, but Georgia Southern still plays Davidson and College of Charleston, two games they probably will indeed lose. A lot of rambling, just a lean.
Lean: Wofford -1.5

A few more leans:

Lean: Wisky GB +1.5
Lean: Georgetown/Seton Hall Under 124
Lean: New Mexico/Colorado State Over 134.5

GL
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#3
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:14:17 PM
Already on it...glad to see you on it as well.
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#4
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:14:46 PM
Agree with Creighton....They will open up the entire Can on Evansville tonight

78-61
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#5
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:29:31 PM
as always, best of luck! Any thoughts on the Virginia game? Want to play them with the Hurricanes on a parlay. Thanks for any response.
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#6
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:29:42 PM
Thoughts on NW/Michigan?...one of my bigger plays....just wondering what your thoughts were on this one.  Thanks in advance.
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nropp11
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#7
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:32:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by edwardjohn70:

as always, best of luck! Any thoughts on the Virginia game? Want to play them with the Hurricanes on a parlay. Thanks for any response.

Don't like Virginia tonight off a game they defended extremely well. Don't really like Virginia Tech either off of OT, but Virginia's been garbage on the road. Both have look aheads, tough game.

GL
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nropp11
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#8
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:36:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by qbbearcat:

Thoughts on NW/Michigan?...one of my bigger plays....just wondering what your thoughts were on this one.  Thanks in advance.

Obvious Michigan letdown spot, but going into a style they're all too familiar with. Should be a close game, I just wouldn't have any confidence in Northwestern guarding Michigan with a zone. First meeting this year, Michigan shot 33% and still won (NW shot 50%).

"Must-win" for Northwestern in terms of getting into the tournament, but the last few years they've folded like a _______ in these types of games. Until they get over the hump, no reason for me to expect anything else from them. Can argue value either way here, think the Michigan letdown is a bit bigger of a possibility, but keep in mind it's a letdown into a zone where they're just going to launch 3's from the perimeter.

Game should come down to the wire.

GL
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#9
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:40:20 PM
Neil,

I like the Creighton play.

I see tons of love got MSU +9 today. Did you take a look at this game and what are your thoughts?

thank you
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nropp11
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#10
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:41:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pitbull666:

Neil,

I like the Creighton play.

I see tons of love got MSU +9 today. Did you take a look at this game and what are your thoughts?

thank you

I have no interest in fading Kentucky anymore this season. Didn't even look at it.
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#11
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:41:43 PM
Don't mean this as bashing, but do you have a job? How do you have time for such lengthy write-ups each day? They are fantastic. 

Already locked in Wofford last night,  as I agree this is a tough matchup of styles  for UNCG. In tight pressure games I will take the team that plays defense versus the run and gun team. There is a reason the Suns never won anything big in the NBA. Best of luck on your plays tonight. 
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#12
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:42:48 PM
Neil,

Any chance miss st takes one from kentucky tonight?

Also not the greatest spot for NM coming off Wyoming, SDSU and UNLV, you think CSU could steal one from the Lobos? 

Thanks in advance & GL tonight.
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nropp11
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#13
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:51:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DrWebster:

Neil,

Any chance miss st takes one from kentucky tonight?

Also not the greatest spot for NM coming off Wyoming, SDSU and UNLV, you think CSU could steal one from the Lobos? 

Thanks in advance & GL tonight.

Have no clue on Kentucky. Has the possibility of being a good game, just not sure MSU has enough weapons on the perimeter to do the trick.

As for the New Mexico game, really weird game and I pointed over here. Colorado State can't use the four guard offense it wants to against a team like New Mexico (see the first meeting for example), so they're at a big disadvantage here. But, you also have New Mexico coming into altitude off of two huge victories. I couldn't figure it out. Came to the conclusion that the game should feature some points with CSU being at home where they shoot it well, and them not really having the ability to stop NM from scoring in the paint. Definitely a game I'm interested in seeing the outcome, and what each does differently as opposed to the first meeting. Should be a good one.

GL
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#14
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:53:52 PM
Thanks for the answer. I thought you may say something like that.... they lost like 12 or 13 straight ats, law of avgs may start to play a role.

GL tonight


P.S- I do see some value on GB at home tonight, I think clev st may have just about given up and could be fade material.

Im on em
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#15
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:59:37 PM
QUOTE
Originally Posted by nropp11:

I will start this by saying that if there is one spot that Illinois gets up for a game the rest of the year, this is probably it. But, I’m going the other way based on a few things. For one, Bruce has lost the players, I’m fairly confident of that. For reference, check out the halftime lead at Nebraska that quickly turned into a 43-7 second half run they allowed to…Nebraska of all teams. Illinois just couldn’t defend, and didn’t look like they cared to do so, either. And, it actually led to tears on the bench and in the locker-room. First meeting this year was the Brandon Paul show, couldn’t miss, and he was the sole reason they were even in the game. I assume Bruce changes the lineup tonight for some odd reason, and if that happens, the offense takes a huge hit regardless of who see’s time on the floor and the defense doesn’t get any better, either. Thad hates Illinois. No reason he takes it easy off a loss, tonight. Thad off a loss last couple years: Win by 24, Win by 31, Win by 17, Win by 10, Win by 10, Win by 19. Again, just a lean. Scared of Illini going in with the motto of doing whatever they want, whenever they want, and I think that’s possibly a good thing if Bruce just lets the talent play without any awkward direction.
Lean: Ohio State -15


I was already on Creighton for similar reasoning and your lean on OSU is enough to make me pull the trigger...didn't know Thad was anti-Illini moreso than the rest of the conference. Seeing Nebraska pull away from Illinois was evidence enough that Weber was indeed dead-man walking.

Looking ahead tomorrow to Purdue/Nebraska and think they Hummel/pummel NU by DD. 
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#16
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:01:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pitbull666:

Thanks for the answer. I thought you may say something like that.... they lost like 12 or 13 straight ats, law of avgs may start to play a role.

GL tonight


P.S- I do see some value on GB at home tonight, I think clev st may have just about given up and could be fade material.

Im on em

I see the value on GB only b/c of Brown and the possibility of him missing the game. Think some major value on CSU if he does play, but then again, it's a groin injury and not sure how much he goes. But yah, this team appears to be done without him. Been shooting turrrrrrrrrribly terrible.

GL
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#17
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:06:59 PM
NROPP11 = ROBIN HOOD!!!
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#18
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:22:46 PM

Any chance for KState at Missou, 2 game roady, etc?  They sure played well against Missou at home.

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nropp11
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#19
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:27:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lbreno:

Any chance for KState at Missou, 2 game roady, etc?  They sure played well against Missou at home.


I don't see it. I do see a much faster paced game and would point to the over (this total was 147 the first meeting).

Can't trust K-State here. At Texas, home against Kansas, then at Baylor, and now here? Wheels on the bus might fall off. 

GL
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#20
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:28:03 PM
yeah damn that write up was insane. The best play on the ncaa board tonight is definitely Michigan. they have tremendous value either +the pts or ml. Trey Burke is quitely turning into a great point man. i have hime as possibly of the nations best next year as a sophmore. He can shoot a good % and has an awesome ability to take it to the bucket. everyone, including Hardaway Jr. is getting beter every game because of his penetration. i  agree with peoples let down theory but they dont realize Michigan is still playin for a possible big 10 regular season title. so they will be amped and ready to go. another great advantage for the maize and blue is the numerous defenders they can uses on Schurna, NW's biggest weapon, could face 3 or 4 different defenders tonight thanks to guys like smotryc and novak who can step out and defend him on the perimeter or be helpful with helpside defense. forget about a let down, Michigan is only gettin better and have a great matchup advantage v NW. Go Blue and go BIG!........
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#21
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:28:56 PM
NROPP for President!
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#22
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:33:26 PM
Nropp- very nice job on your picks and thoughts....i dont always tail but sometimes you have some very good points and i have tailed, sat was a perfect example of that.....anyways bol the rest of the season
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#23
Posted: 2/21/2012 4:59:34 PM
I would appreciate your thoughts on the Kent State game.
 
Thanks
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#24
Posted: 2/21/2012 5:02:45 PM
Do you have any lean on the total in the Creighton game?
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#25
Posted: 2/21/2012 5:02:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TexasTman:

I would appreciate your thoughts on the Kent State game.
 
Thanks

Thanks as always for the write-ups Neil. Playing Creighton -10 and Kent St -2 tonight myself

BOL!!!

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