2012 Kempom System

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 2012 Kempom System
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 4:53:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fools_Gold:


I checked the results from that first year and it seems that BOTH have to be from "lined" conferences....

Seems those "unlined" conference teams are always such big question marks.... better to just lay off....


Exactly - you still could consider it for a play, but understand that many of the "advantages" of the system don't exist when its an "unlined" team. 
padre16 PM padre16
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Posted: 2/20/2012 4:54:32 PM

wow!

and more wow!

do you teach KINEsiology at a university?  more like probability and statistics!

thank you, sir, for your great contributions to this forum.

ryno23 PM ryno23
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Posted: 2/20/2012 4:55:52 PM

kine, just wanted to say thanks for the info...and yes...i like your idea about 'looking to limit ur plays'... more you play i think ithe more of a chance you have of not winning,.

gl the rest of way  ryno

 

KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 4:56:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

I'm not a profit of line movement and can tell you that I would rather grab a line .5 pts too soon, than 1-2 pts too late.  Amazon.com forgot to ship me my crystal ball so its pointless to ask me what I think the line will do, if this season is any indication, it will probably move down (away from us).

You may not be a prophet but you will profit!!! Hey Kine, thanks for your great help...you and nropp11 are the nuts in my humble opinion. Let's get 'em from here on out.


RebelTell2


Hahahaha - dang it!  Should have proofread it and not just trusted spell-check, promise that I know prophet from profit - dang me!  I'm also good with to, two and too and also by and buy.  Still working on principle and principal!

Thanks for the nice post and the passive aggressive way you called out my spelling - I certainly approve!
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 4:58:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ryno23:

thanks jegs,

yes i did the pre system...and it was profitable... 25 and 9 i beleive....as far as some plays in there that werent system...i would state when it wasnt a system or play that met the parameters ....other than that i wasnt real strict  with it.... all in all..glad kine wrote this thread.

gl the rest of way... ryno



25-9, not bad at all - and I bet ryno did even better as he was also playing those other plays that didn't exactly fit the system but they made profit too.  Thanks again Ryno
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:00:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by padre16:

wow!

and more wow!

do you teach KINEsiology at a university?  more like probability and statistics!

thank you, sir, for your great contributions to this forum.



Don't tell my peers that I spelled prophet like profit
Jose_Reyes PM Jose_Reyes
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:00:54 PM
Thanks for sharing KP    
npearl PM npearl
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:06:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Going to repeat there here just in case anyone missed it, your "opener" is the very first chance the game is made available by your online site, local, etc.


Thank you, Kine.
RebelTell2 PM RebelTell2
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:09:11 PM
It's the wicked English major in me...and likewise I rely on the spell-check crutch way too much. I copied your system into a word doc and plan on studying it.


BOL,
RebelTell2
U369151 PM U369151
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:10:35 PM
I'm such a duffs I'm just hoping somebody actually lists the plays
U369151 PM U369151
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:10:55 PM
Dufus that is
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 5:57:43 PM
I'm also going to use this thread to post games that I'm personally looking at - there really isn't any need to ask "what I'm on" as I'm happy to say what games I'm looking at as long as I have time to jump on. 

Only game I'm looking at is the Marist/Fairfield game.  Only side I would consider would be Fairfield and I do believe its the right side, just not much value in the line (aka I think the line is set right). 

I do see that there is some value on the under.  Marist has really been "locking down" (for them of course) on defense lately (still not great by any stretch, but they realize its the formula for them to compete and even win).  Fairfield, on the other hand, plays a slower tempo (and Marist tends to match the tempo of its opponents) and have really been shutting people down on defense.  Since the last time they played Marist, here is how many points they allowed: 53, 69, 56, 54, 51, 38, 67 (last game loss and wasn't a conference opponent).  The last time they played last month, the total landed exactly on 134, but you should realize that Fairfield shot 66% from the floor in the second half of that game (and 55% for the game) on their way to 81 points (their highest total of the season). 

Marist has actually played better defense in their last five.  From the most recent article in the poughkeepsie journal, they are SUPER focused and trying to build on their last few wins (although clearly they still suck) and they remember all the points they gave up in the last matchup.  I was hoping for 135, so now that the game has moved back down to 134 I'm on the fence about playing it. 


JEG53 PM JEG53
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Posted: 2/20/2012 6:56:43 PM
I took the 8 points with Marist,have a hard time passing up that many points on a home team against a little better team,could be a bad pick with FTs at end,but going to give it a shot.
ratbastard PM ratbastard
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Posted: 2/20/2012 7:00:35 PM
Ryno and Kine,
Thanks for your work.. it's appreciated! Good luck this last 2 weeks. Try not to get to disappointed and/or upset with some of the mental giants in this thread that have to be spoon fed!! "READ THE FIRST POST" ..great response! Crush the books!
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 7:54:13 PM
Fairfield 28-12 at half, my under looking good.  Now the classic question is do you go for the HUGE middle opportunity.  9 times out of 10 I'll just take the good possibility of winning the one unit.  I'd only go for it if I was tracking in the game and most (if not all) the angles point to a big regression back to the mean in scoring etc.  Since I didn't track too closely I'll just be letting it ride and try to cash the 1-unit.
PLAYAAAA1969 PM PLAYAAAA1969
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Posted: 2/20/2012 8:26:48 PM
12 pts in  a Half 
JimmyTheLegend PM JimmyTheLegend
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Posted: 2/20/2012 8:59:10 PM
Good call on the Under 134
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 9:06:19 PM
Cash it! Under 134 - Fairfield covers too - didn't bet that one but like being on the right side
roundrock9 PM roundrock9
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Posted: 2/20/2012 9:12:21 PM
i read the thread and last year thread too and understood the system and the predicates on which the system is built. now can we extend this system to other games likes women basketball, nba ? i can understand in nba with less number of teams bookmakers attention on ALL of them is still high and they may not make mistakes. but what i like is te motivation factor of a team thats not getting quailified into playoffs but still get points
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 9:43:15 PM
FYI - Texas Southern with a fairly easy cover tonight too - file these things away for possible future plays
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/20/2012 10:47:27 PM
Spoiler Alert: there won't be any system plays tomorrow, but I will have a "larger" than normal play on a game tomorrow.  I have to wait on some info in the morning, but I'll post it here sometime in the a.m. after I confirm some things if anyone is interested. 
mtndew146 PM mtndew146
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Posted: 2/20/2012 10:49:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

Spoiler Alert: there won't be any system plays tomorrow, but I will have a "larger" than normal play on a game tomorrow.  I have to wait on some info in the morning, but I'll post it here sometime in the a.m. after I confirm some things if anyone is interested. 
which game will it be thax
TDHCentral PM TDHCentral
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Posted: 2/21/2012 3:54:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by roundrock9:

i read the thread and last year thread too and understood the system and the predicates on which the system is built. now can we extend this system to other games likes women basketball, nba ? i can understand in nba with less number of teams bookmakers attention on ALL of them is still high and they may not make mistakes. but what i like is te motivation factor of a team thats not getting quailified into playoffs but still get points


I know you asked Kine, but if you don't mind, I'd like to interject my opinion here.  The answer is 'no'.  Firstly, WNBA lines are already skewed and easily capped for or against because there is very very little action on this sport wherein line movement or otherwise dictates vegas money.  In other words, it's just not a popular enough sport where large amts of money move a line and quite frankly for Oddmakers to spend much time on the games.  Over the years I've made a good amt of $$ on WNBA by just capping the games.

NBA is a different beast.  I do well at NBA, but it's far from easy, and I don't think there is a system out there that can be continuously profitable for the NBA. There are WAY too many angles, situations, rotations, etc to look at in the NBA games.

Kine's system here is basically to 'expose' the oddmakers' line's on crappy teams wherein either can win in a given situation. Again, look at the games yourself utiliziling KenPom and other sites based on the system to get an advantage on beating the lines.

Hope this made sense. 
Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 2/21/2012 4:37:01 AM
I'm from poughkeepsie and yes Marist does suck! Have faded them a few times this year. Nice work Kine.
ryno23 PM ryno23
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Posted: 2/21/2012 6:56:12 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

FYI - Texas Southern with a fairly easy cover tonight too - file these things away for possible future plays

gm kine...as i said when i posted the pre system...i was playing the almost and teams that didnt always have lines but warnedppl that they werent system plays..but i prsonally liked the value on them.

i didnt post but looked into the tex southrn game and i instantly jumped on them. hell they almost won!

gl today,i see nothing as far as system plays go today...thanks for the under in marist..i couldnt pass it up! lol :)

gl ryno

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