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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 2012 Kempom System
KineProfessor send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KineProfessor
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#701
Posted: 2/26/2012 6:57:07 PM
*As I've mentioned many times before, updating the system record is problematic as people will have different opening lines and will lock it in at different times - for those who didn't have Eastern Illinois a play in the middle of last week - they were 7-3 coming into today, others were 7-4 if they had that a play, other were 8-5 if they had the other two openers on Saturday's list etc.  It really doesn't matter and if anyone has been listening at all, the theme is to look at sides and games that would normally fly under the radar.  As I'm sure you know now, Citadel and Marist are 7-1 ATS in their last eight, yet those are teams that people are still avoiding or, even worse, betting against.  So, with that being said, if you played the games before tip, you went 0-0 with 2 pushes or if you got Canisius 11.5 you went 1-0-1, if you grabbed Canisius early you went 0-1-1, it doesn't matter to me how we grade them - I'm happy calling Canisius a loss off the opening line or a push since that is what the majority got.  Anyway, if we count it as a loss - the system is 7-5-1 or 7-4-1 which would be what the majority (atleast 5dimes users would have). I actually like giving it a worse record to weed out some of the troublemakers - I want them to think this sucks.   Anyway, I went 1-0-1 but have been on the wrong side of it plenty also.  Hope you looked at Denver (great spot play) and Marist (super undervalued) today.

*There is one system play tomorrow: Northern Arizona +9 (I hope this line moves up as I actually have it closer to +10.5, +11). 

Remember that the Big South conference tourney lines don't count towards the system as they are un "unlined" conference.  That doesn't mean that I'm not interested in those games.  On the contrary, Garner Webb is interesting at +6 as both regular season matchups went with High Point went to overtime.  Also, Radford +8 is interesting only because they lost both matchups with VMI by 5 and 4 but because they are in such poor form, I don't think that line is off at all.

Besides Garner Webb +6, I also looking into: Baylor/Tech under (hoping the total climbs like they normally do), and I expect to get Ok St's best tomorrow so +10 is tempting.

Feel free to buck the trend and discuss/share info and opinions and help each other out, good luck with whatever you decide.  
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#702
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:06:35 PM
....Anyway I went 1-0-1...not if you want to have any credibility!
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#703
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:23:27 PM
Hmmm.....a Baylor under on a Big Monday
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#704
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:31:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Marist

Denver

Definitely the difference in winning and losing over the course of the whole season as well, not just on the system.  Before I published it four years and the first year it was starting up we were getting 1-3 pts in our favor in almost all the plays (as so many people wouldn't dare but on those "horrible" teams; then last year, especially when the pay touts were giving out the system plays etc., we had less move our way, many hold solid, and a few move against us - that hurts long-term profitability to be sure.  Nice thing is that non-system teams are still not getting respect, like Marist and Citadel (both 7-1 their last 8 ATS) and a few others as well - that is why I keep insisting that the almost system plays and the under the radar plays are so important to the thread.


When you state that you "are looking at" a game, I assume it is a lean until you lock it in. I checked back on the days thread and did not see Marist or Denver as locked in plays.

In most cases in the past when you had a play it was labeled as an "alert play" with the amount of units and the line you bet it at. Since you have such an enormous following and so many people do follow your plays, would it be too much to ask  you to let us know it is a play and what line you actually played it at.

Thanks again for your dedication and all the information you share with us.
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#705
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:34:48 PM
PitchBlack...let it go...it's wherever he got his points. I went 0-2 by 1/2 point on each end...point is the system was still in the pocket and there is simple logic behind it.  Please fade it all the way. 
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#706
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:44:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

*As I've mentioned many times before, updating the system record is problematic as people will have different opening lines and will lock it in at different times - for those who didn't have Eastern Illinois a play in the middle of last week - they were 7-3 coming into today, others were 7-4 if they had that a play, other were 8-5 if they had the other two openers on Saturday's list etc.  It really doesn't matter and if anyone has been listening at all, the theme is to look at sides and games that would normally fly under the radar.  As I'm sure you know now, Citadel and Marist are 7-1 ATS in their last eight, yet those are teams that people are still avoiding or, even worse, betting against.  So, with that being said, if you played the games before tip, you went 0-0 with 2 pushes or if you got Canisius 11.5 you went 1-0-1, if you grabbed Canisius early you went 0-1-1, it doesn't matter to me how we grade them - I'm happy calling Canisius a loss off the opening line or a push since that is what the majority got.  Anyway, if we count it as a loss - the system is 7-5-1 or 7-4-1 which would be what the majority (atleast 5dimes users would have). I actually like giving it a worse record to weed out some of the troublemakers - I want them to think this sucks.   Anyway, I went 1-0-1 but have been on the wrong side of it plenty also.  Hope you looked at Denver (great spot play) and Marist (super undervalued) today.

*There is one system play tomorrow: Northern Arizona +9 (I hope this line moves up as I actually have it closer to +10.5, +11). 

Remember that the Big South conference tourney lines don't count towards the system as they are un "unlined" conference.  That doesn't mean that I'm not interested in those games.  On the contrary, Garner Webb is interesting at +6 as both regular season matchups went with High Point went to overtime.  Also, Radford +8 is interesting only because they lost both matchups with VMI by 5 and 4 but because they are in such poor form, I don't think that line is off at all.

Besides Garner Webb +6, I also looking into: Baylor/Tech under (hoping the total climbs like they normally do), and I expect to get Ok St's best tomorrow so +10 is tempting.

Feel free to buck the trend and discuss/share info and opinions and help each other out, good luck with whatever you decide.  



Kine,

That is exactly what I'm looking for out of this discussion.  The plays, the near plays and anything under the radar.  Those who take everything literally (what's the exact record, etc.) are missing out.

Shopping for line value is always #1 or near #1 in what makes sound handicapping. 

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#707
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:50:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

....Anyway I went 1-0-1...not if you want to have any credibility!

Hahaha - just ignore the entire paragraph and pick out what you want to focus on - I will count all games including Denver and Marist as losses to restore my credibility, 0-4 day today boys.  

If my four years of documented winning isn't enough credibility for you I apologize, ask the vets of this site how my credibility is and they will be glad to tell you.  And I always post the worst possible record for the system too and still get these kinds of replys, unreal and halarious!  

This is the perfect example of what's wrong with the thread, instead I focusing on tomorrows games and discussing plays and lines, people are worried about my personal 5dimes account - read the freaking paragraph and I gladly took the eiu loss which I personally played and posted on the system record too, even though it wasn't a play for many.  I could care less what the system record is, I'm concerned about pointing people towards games they should look at that could produce winners (see last nights post about today's games for more proof).  If anyone has a problem my credibility AT ALL please ignore this thread for the rest of the season 
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#708
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:54:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whisperman:



When you state that you "are looking at" a game, I assume it is a lean until you lock it in. I checked back on the days thread and did not see Marist or Denver as locked in plays.

In most cases in the past when you had a play it was labeled as an "alert play" with the amount of units and the line you bet it at. Since you have such an enormous following and so many people do follow your plays, would it be too much to ask  you to let us know it is a play and what line you actually played it at.

Thanks again for your dedication and all the information you share with us.


Did that they first day and everyone got MEGA SUPER confused as to what were my plays and what were the system plays - the purpose is to point people in the right direction, but you are right, I pumped out tons of alert plays the last few years - trying now to just pick out games and let people decide for themselves, if you would like me to post alert plays on games I really love, I'm happy to do so.
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#709
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:57:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Philbert:




Kine,

That is exactly what I'm looking for out of this discussion.  The plays, the near plays and anything under the radar.  Those who take everything literally (what's the exact record, etc.) are missing out.

Shopping for line value is always #1 or near #1 in what makes sound handicapping. 



Agree with every single thing you said.  Still trying to get these points across one full week after the initial post.  I can't imagine anyone else has pointed more toward Citadel and Marist (although they weren't system plays) than we have in this thread.  Just want to get people to put there head together and find info, angles and other aspects of the games to help us all out. 
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#710
Posted: 2/26/2012 7:58:16 PM
It's simple really...no rocket scientists needed in this thread...Thank God...

You posted them as plays (not as leans) at +10 both of them...so be willing to take that as your line...and that should be the line you accept  for posting your record...if you are waiting for a better line then don't post them as plays at +10...

See how simple that is....
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#711
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:03:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mickalicious:

PitchBlack...let it go...it's wherever he got his points. I went 0-2 by 1/2 point on each end...point is the system was still in the pocket and there is simple logic behind it.  Please fade it all the way. 


This was the main problem I was trying to avoid after three seasons of these threads now.  Thought by making it "the opening line" to clarify what makes system plays it would cut down the million posts about whether one "moved into system range or not" (and it has helped).  The other huge problem is the system record for people who are sour about losing by .5 or 1 point if they locked in a bad line.  I locked in numerous bad lines yesterday - towson and monroe were both one point worse, thankfully it didn't matter one way or the other.  But it would take so much useless energy to try to post a hundred different system records, the close games always win for some, lose for some, and push for some (and I've been on the wrong end plenty as well), no point in focusing on it.  I've not locked in Northern Arizona at +9 and I'm going to be tracking it all day (and its easy to track when you watch the 5dimes "reduced juice" and it normally gives clues as to which way a number is moving).  I really think the line should be +11 so I'm hoping the line gets bet up some throughout the day, if someone doesn't believe it will, they should lock it in now (please remember that this was covered in detail in post 1 and 2 as well).  Lets focus on what to do with the Big South Tourney games  


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#712
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:04:43 PM
I've got no problem going on record to back the Professor.  Although we disagree greatly on number of plays, (I've played 213 plays so far this season.  How many have you played Professor?) there is no doubt KP's understanding of line movement, steam value and line shopping has led him to more ATS winners than most. I believe the more plays the better because it helps weed out 1/2 and 1 point losses on missed free throws, bizarre last second shots, etc.  More plays helps even out the randomness that comes with the territory. 

Anyway no harm today on 2 pushes with the system.  Let's see what's on tap for tomorrow.  Nice call with Marist today, they are hot. 
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#713
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:13:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

It's simple really...no rocket scientists needed in this thread...Thank God...

You posted them as plays (not as leans) at +10 both of them...so be willing to take that as your line...and that should be the line you accept  for posting your record...if you are waiting for a better line then don't post them as plays at +10...

See how simple that is....


Unfortunately, people want to know what the plays are the night before (how they can't figure it out is beyond me) so the plays will be posted the night before at the opening line so everyone can see what the plays themselves are based on the opening line.  What you, me or anyone else locks in the plays at (or whether they play them at all) is completely up to them.  Also, 5dimes reduced juice doesn't even begin until the next morning so there is no way I would ever lock these games in at worse juice when I can wait till the next morning and save plenty.  Feel free to do things however you see fit in your thread and if I have credibility issues in your eyes, the fix is simple - stay out of the thread.  You can make the system record whatever you want and IF YOU READ POST 701 I graded it a loss for the system (even posted the updated record of 7-5-1 in that case) and said if the majority wanted it counted as a push then that is fine too (even posted the record of 7-4-1 for anyone in that boat). How anyone can find something to complain about in that post is unbelievable.  

I can guarantee you one thing, the only thing the people in thread (myself included) care about is what the system record is FOR THEM, what it says in the beginning of each day's post is inconsequential.  Believe me, I'm trying to weed people out of this thread not bring more knuckleheads in so I'll never fudge the system record, in fact, I'll post the worse of the two records to keep people out. 
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#714
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:17:27 PM
Exactly and for records sake the easiest way to keep track of the record is by what you posted the plays as...both were posted at +10...everyone gets what they get but you have to be willing to track the record with what was posted as a PLAY...
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#715
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:18:51 PM
0-1-1 for the day...7-5-1 for the year...
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#716
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:25:29 PM

Kine

 

Fellow professor here (ironically NIU), do you think your system would work early in the season or say start it in January once it is known in general how good or bad teams are? Great system with a sound basis behind it.

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#717
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:35:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Agree with every single thing you said.  Still trying to get these points across one full week after the initial post.  I can't imagine anyone else has pointed more toward Citadel and Marist (although they weren't system plays) than we have in this thread.  Just want to get people to put there head together and find info, angles and other aspects of the games to help us all out. 



And that is why I'm looking forward to a healthy discussion on anything interesting related to March Madness under the radar systems, angles, historical data, etc, as a way to gain an edge on the oddsmakers that can be useful to ALL

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#718
Posted: 2/26/2012 8:54:02 PM
KP,

You missed my point - my lines missed the push by 1/2 point and this just means I need to pay attention to watching the moves. Had I waited an hour later, I would have had at least one push. Buy the point and I'm golden.

The system was still "in the pocket" and all we can hope for is any chance to swing odds in our favor...I'm a believer...thanks for your efforts. 

Mick
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#719
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:02:45 PM
I wonder why the REAL vets of this site don't frequent this thread...hmmmmmmmmmmmm...no troe...no train...no nropp...nojfen...nope just a man and his aliases...it seems like the vets here stay way from this thread!  
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#720
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:08:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

0-1-1 for the day...7-5-1 for the year...

Dude when playing garbage dogs, usually it works best to wait out the line..........like 10 - 15 minutes before. What I don't understand though is why U in this thread bust'n KP when with all them red stars U should just be playing ur own plays...............

These type of plays may not be for U.......

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#721
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:11:58 PM
Somebody has to keep the Professor company...I mean he might just go crazy in here posting to himself...
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#722
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:14:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

I wonder why the REAL vets of this site don't frequent this thread...hmmmmmmmmmmmm...no troe...no train...no nropp...nojfen...nope just a man and his aliases...it seems like the vets here stay way from this thread!  

Wrong again Son........these guys respect KP's abilities & knowledge to cap games........

Again, these type of plays may not be for U.....

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#723
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:15:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

I wonder why the REAL vets of this site don't frequent this thread...hmmmmmmmmmmmm...no troe...no train...no nropp...nojfen...nope just a man and his aliases...it seems like the vets here stay way from this thread!  

PitchBlack2011
looks like you've been kept in the dark your whole life 

i see that you're not even a capper yourself, you're just a clueless parasite tailing others picks. if you can't take a loss(tailing), then gambling is not for you. Real Vets as you called them are busy with their own threads so that should answer your dumb question. Kineprofessor has more than earned the respect from "REAL Vets" that's why you don't see them talking trash in here.PROSPECTS like you on the other hand, seem to just pop out from nowhere and ask too many questions(typical for a prospect). Go make your own thread and get out of here. 
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#724
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:24:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Marist

Denver

Definitely the difference in winning and losing over the course of the whole season as well, not just on the system.  Before I published it four years and the first year it was starting up we were getting 1-3 pts in our favor in almost all the plays (as so many people wouldn't dare but on those "horrible" teams; then last year, especially when the pay touts were giving out the system plays etc., we had less move our way, many hold solid, and a few move against us - that hurts long-term profitability to be sure.  Nice thing is that non-system teams are still not getting respect, like Marist and Citadel (both 7-1 their last 8 ATS) and a few others as well - that is why I keep insisting that the almost system plays and the under the radar plays are so important to the thread.

Thanks for the Marist pick bud. Saw your analysis , Looked in to it myself and played it. Thanks.  

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#725
Posted: 2/26/2012 9:38:50 PM
Kp you really are a person. You only post your condescending crap for ego preservation. Whatever system guy. 
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