Saturday Hoops

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Saturday Hoops
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:05:50 AM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 28-19, +29.90
February Leans: 30-27


UNLV hits the road for the second straight game, where the first game went into OT and hit 82 possessions and UNLV shot 54% and still lost (they actually were shooting 70% at one time in the 2H). Now, they travel to the Pit for an early morning tip. New Mexico has a few revenge angles here. Not only do they have the revenge angle from this years match-up (a game that happened directly after a rare home loss), but they're also avenging their home loss last year to UNLV. UNLV is in a weird spot here. They just gave up 100+ on the road, so the focus is going to be on the defensive side of the ball I would assume, and with that, the offense takes a hit, especially on the road after a good shooting game. Should be a nice spot for New Mexico in a statement game.
5* New Mexico -4.5

Horrendous spot for IPFW, today. If you look at their February slate, they went on the road for four games, just came home for their game of the year against conference champ Oral Roberts and their only home game in February, and now they hit the road for three more games. Not only that, but they had a good chance for a victory that would have put them in the last and final spot for the Conference Tournament (Sumitt takes the top 8 teams only). Should be a nice letdown spot for them today, and a possible lookahead to their final two conference games. Within the game itself, IPFW hasn't seen a Princeton offense this year, and haven't seen a match-up zone like EKU's either. The match-up zone will prevent a majority of the isolation plays that IPFW runs for Gaines with help coming from all angles, so IPFW's going to need some other sources of offense in this match-up. EKU's going to shoot a ton of three's, especially with the way that IPFW defends, so it's probably a game where they need to go in, but the open looks that come from the modified Princeton should be plenty available against a team that would rather go up and down than sit in the half court and defend. IPFW has two road victories, and they come against Nebraska Omaha and Tennessee Martin, two teams that combine for just three Division 1 victories on the year. 
5* Eastern Kentucky -3

Bad spot for Montana State. Went out on a two game roady, second game went to OT, before coming home to begin the ultimate Big Sky sandwich. They lost the first game at home to Weber State, now hit the road to Fullerton before coming back to Montana for the big rivalry game. Fullerton offense is a bit under the radar, and they should get a fast pace that they like today against a defense that hasn't been able to stop anybody. Not much more to it, just going with the better offense in the better spot I think. 
5* Cal State Fullerton -13

Lean: Indiana State +5.5
Lean: NC State -1.5
Lean: UTEP +14.5
Lean: North Carolina -12
Lean: Lasalle +3
Lean: Charlotte +6
Lean: Rice +8.5
Lean: Wyoming/Colorado State Under 125.5
Lean: Akron/Oral Roberts Under 142
Lean: Oakland/Illinois State Over 155
Lean: Morehead/Bowling Green Under 119.5
Lean: FAU/MTSTU Over 127.5
Lean: Ole Miss/Kentucky Under 134.5

GL
JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:08:25 AM
On EKU for many of the same reasons. Great combo of situational and matchup issues for IPFW.

Good luck today Neil.
lv2ftfire PM lv2ftfire
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:09:32 AM

Thanks Nropp,always happy to see you on here!

Any info on that Buffalo game? I think +7 is to much and Buffalo should cover that big number!

semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:09:48 AM
Neil, any feel for Drexel/CSU early with Brown still out for CSU
MadeMan4 PM MadeMan4
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:14:04 AM
BOL today Neil.


usmabama PM usmabama
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:14:16 AM
BOL
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:15:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lv2ftfire:

Thanks Nropp,always happy to see you on here!

Any info on that Buffalo game? I think +7 is to much and Buffalo should cover that big number!


Tough game. Buffalo off a tough loss and big game on deck. Game should feature some offense. Curious to see if Buffalo goes zone. If they do, SDST has the kids to shoot lights out. Tough call, don't see much value either way.

GL
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:16:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by semperfi19:

Neil, any feel for Drexel/CSU early with Brown still out for CSU

Extra Early Tip - Crossed it off. With these defenses, should be a game that comes down to the final possession and don't see much value. Would probably point Drexel with the injury to Brown, just a different "finesse" style of defense while they're offense is more accustomed to going up against a physical style in the CAA.

GL
lumpsluck PM lumpsluck
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:22:20 AM
Great stuff. i enjoy and respect this forum thanks for your insight and time.
Dosan23 PM Dosan23
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:23:28 AM
Hi Nropp, can I get your thoughts on Tenn +4 @ Bama, and Akron +3.5 @ Oral? Thanks much appreciated as always.

GL with your 3 plays!
michaelpaul1 PM michaelpaul1
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:26:08 AM
sportsanalyst PM sportsanalyst
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:27:45 AM
GL Neil. Can I get thoughts on Miss State at Auburn? Thanks. So many games today, I get overwhelmed.


Gordon Gekko PM Gordon Gekko
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:30:51 AM

Nropp, b

Like New Mexico's spot as well as I have UNLV at 5 but bought out of it at 4.5..lose the juice..Took Clemson at a nice number of 14 last night and took Drexel heavy with 3.5...

What are your thoughts on Notre Dame?  I have them as 5-6 pt winner on road.

J-HA PM J-HA
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:31:38 AM
GL today Neil. 
dougiemac PM dougiemac
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:34:08 AM
Neil, what do you think about Oral Roberts today. I see you leaned the under for the game.
wmi799 PM wmi799
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:45:57 AM
Good luck Neil!
t6rider PM t6rider
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:46:44 AM
You and JFen should work for ESPN, or better yet start your own Network for College Hoops similar to the MLB Network or NBA TV. Your guys knowledge to this sport just blows me away. Thanks for the hard work.
Oscarxena PM Oscarxena
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:54:50 AM

I see someone asked about the Buffalo game and just wanted to let everyone know that it is a horrendous travel aspect for the Bulls here. They left on Thursday so that they could get a flight into South Dakota but from there they had to bus another hour just to get to the venue. They also are forced to stay overnight because no flights leave until Sunday morning. I don't know if this will effect them but it is something to consider in this one.

Best of luck today NRopp, a really tough day to handicap as the board is so loaded, we need to clone you for days like this.

 

mtndew146 PM mtndew146
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Posted: 2/18/2012 10:58:07 AM
Drexel went from 3.5 to 2 now what a drop
lv2ftfire PM lv2ftfire
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Posted: 2/18/2012 11:01:37 AM
Thanks guys!
evilelvis PM evilelvis
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Posted: 2/18/2012 11:02:50 AM
jim spector PM jim spector
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Posted: 2/18/2012 11:11:18 AM
3 favs???
jim spector PM jim spector
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Posted: 2/18/2012 11:21:01 AM
do long beach st or akron have chance to win
PROPHET4 PM PROPHET4
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Posted: 2/18/2012 11:33:15 AM
gl nropp 
dmoore916 PM dmoore916
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Posted: 2/18/2012 11:59:26 AM

Nropp- On Eastern Kentucky as well. One game I been looking into and am leaning is Western Carolina @ Elon -2.5. Any thoughts?

Thanks in advance and good luck today. Like the New Mexico play but I am being a puss about playing it

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