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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Kentucky-4.5@Vandy
MistakeHitter send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/10/2012 5:16:36 PM
Kentucky-4.5

That line has got to be going up
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Posted: 2/10/2012 5:31:54 PM

Actually, line seems spot on to me and is exactly what I expected.

Check out each team's recent line against Florida:

Kentucky at home vs. Florida -9

Vanderbilt @ Florida -6.5 (meaning they would have been about -1 at home)

That's an 8 point different between Kentucky and Vandy. Give Vandy the usual 3.5 to 4 points for being at home and you have your -4.5 UK line.

Now, you can say Kentucky blew out Florida and Vandy didn't cover against the Gators and therefore the line should be higher. But unlike most of the betting public, Vegas does not massively overreact to recent performances.

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#3
Posted: 2/10/2012 5:50:15 PM
Kentucky Gun Kill it ... This for the first time in college we have a number 1 team that is WIDELY better then the rest
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#4
Posted: 2/10/2012 5:59:15 PM
Last time Ky was a -4.5 fav they lost. Probably doesn't mean much...just saying.
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#5
Posted: 2/10/2012 6:38:07 PM
Yeah but think of the market guys, Kentucky will be 5.5 at tip at minimum IMO, 
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#6
Posted: 2/10/2012 6:49:33 PM
call me crazy but i smell an upset in nashville tomorrow
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#7
Posted: 2/10/2012 6:50:22 PM
yeah, if you want to bet Vandy hold off until at least tomorrow morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 6.5 on the board...public will HAMMER UK
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Posted: 2/10/2012 6:52:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rollbama1237:

yeah, if you want to bet Vandy hold off until at least tomorrow morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 6.5 on the board...public will HAMMER UK
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#9
Posted: 2/10/2012 6:55:05 PM
Read this today

Notre Dame has beat the spread +10 in 5 straight games  THAT IS RARE.

Lets see if they beat Depaul by 25
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JD232
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#10
Posted: 2/10/2012 7:02:12 PM
Vandy's going to have a full house and their hosting ESPN's College Gameday for the first time. UK's been rolling as of late (5-0 ATS in their L5) but I think it's going to be close 
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Posted: 2/10/2012 7:02:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Rollbama1237:

yeah, if you want to bet Vandy hold off until at least tomorrow morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 6.5 on the board...public will HAMMER UK

The public does not move lines... sharp money moves lines. My opinion, if you like Vandy I would grab the +5.5 out there right now. I think this closes at +4.5 tomorrow.

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Getty3
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Posted: 2/10/2012 7:02:33 PM
Kentucky might have the overconfidence thing going on against a Vanderbilt team that has at least 3 players who can shoot the outside jumper than anybody on their team can. If Ezeli stays out of foul trouble(which is likely on the home court), he'll neutralize the interior advantage of the Wildcats for as long as he's able to stay in the game.
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#13
Posted: 2/10/2012 7:04:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:

The public does not move lines... sharp money moves lines.



True story (contrary to what most people think, of course).
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#14
Posted: 2/10/2012 7:12:34 PM
Did you watch the superbowl?  The public got the game off of 3 which aint easy.  And they will move this line up as well.  
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Posted: 2/10/2012 7:13:43 PM
I agree that for the most part sharp money moves lines but dont kid yourself into thinking the public cant move it as well
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#16
Posted: 2/10/2012 7:37:42 PM
Kentucky already 5.5 at most books
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#17
Posted: 2/10/2012 7:45:45 PM

Let that line go up and up and up...

Vandy has a veteran group-don't forget that KY is a young  team... that is going to be the most hostile environment they've seen all year...

Hoping Vandy get's to +6, but will be on them either way-think they win outright as well so a sprinkle on the ML will be in order as well

GL whatever way you go

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#18
Posted: 2/10/2012 7:50:06 PM
Calpari's teams have struggled in Nashville, partly due to the absurd configuration of the court. He's a hands-on coach but spends most of the game about 70-90 feet away from his team as the benches are situated next to the baskets.

For a team heavily-reliant on freshmen year to year, this has proven to be a major problem. There's just no way to simulate the layout of the court.

Add in that this will be far and away the toughest SEC environment UK has faced to this point in the season and it's not hard to make a case for Vandy.

I'll be playing the Dores at 6 or higher.
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#19
Posted: 2/11/2012 12:25:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:

Kentucky might have the overconfidence thing going on against a Vanderbilt team that has at least 3 players who can shoot the outside jumper than anybody on their team can. If Ezeli stays out of foul trouble(which is likely on the home court), he'll neutralize the interior advantage of the Wildcats for as long as he's able to stay in the game.


AT LEAST 3 people that can shoot better than anyone on UK?  Please explain. 

Keep an eye on the point guard position tomorrow. This could be one of Teague's best games of the season. Vandy doesn't have anyone who can stay in front of him. Dee Bost scored 24 on Vandy. Walker for Florida scored 11, Beal scored 16, and Boynton had 18. Arkansas' 5 guards combined for 67 points. Teague could cause Vandy major issues. And I expect Lamb will get some open looks as well, for that matter.
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#20
Posted: 2/11/2012 12:29:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:

Kentucky might have the overconfidence thing going on against a Vanderbilt team that has at least 3 players who can shoot the outside jumper than anybody on their team can. If Ezeli stays out of foul trouble(which is likely on the home court), he'll neutralize the interior advantage of the Wildcats for as long as he's able to stay in the game.


Davis > Ezeli

Also, Terrence Jones has absolutely owned Goulbourne in the past, OWNED.  This is a mismatch of epic proportions.




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#21
Posted: 2/11/2012 12:31:39 AM
The only thing Vandy has going for them is that their at home on their converted Roller Rink of a gym. If Jenkins gets hot, there is an opportunity for Vandy to pull this out.  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will draw the Jeff Taylor assignment
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#22
Posted: 2/11/2012 12:37:45 AM
Vandy did look a step slow against Arkansas and Florida, and I'm sure that hasn't escaped Calipari's eye. I would be shocked if UK didn't press and didn't keep pressing as long as they're forcing some turnovers and not giving up a bunch of threes in transition. Vandy is definitely vulnerable to the press. Florida pressed them most of the game, forced them into 17 turnovers, and held them to only 8 threes out of 32 (25%). If UK come close to that, they'll win comfortably.
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#23
Posted: 2/11/2012 11:43:24 AM
Line down to 4.5 as I expected. Still a lot of time till tip though.
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#24
Posted: 2/11/2012 12:41:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jusballin32:


Also, Terrence Jones has absolutely owned Goulbourne in the past, OWNED.  This is a mismatch of epic proportions.

I agree this matchup will decide the otutcome of the game....if TJ has a big game Ky wins and covers....if he is average to below average Vandy wins.
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#25
Posted: 2/11/2012 3:23:19 PM
I got both sides, praying for a 5 point Kentucky win
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