Coming off a nice Thursday, presystem went 2-1 (14-4 since Feb 1st, see Ryno's threads if your interested as I won't be making threads about it) and had a few nice wins with the Denver comeback, LMU, Nevada and an easy Riverside cover.
I'm on Iona tonight (got the moneyline reduced juice on 5dimes at a good price early this morning but I don't have a problem laying -2ish either). I'm fairly confident that this will be a popular (possible: square) play so I probably don't need to convince you, but here are a few quick hitters:
The MAAC is one of the conferences that I have specialized this year and if you have followed it much at all you probably understand the Loyola MD is a terrible matchup for most of the MAAC teams and a great matchup for Iona. Loyola has been able to ride a very solid defense (and slow tempo) against a conference full of mediocre (niagara, rider, manhattan, fairfield) and terrible (marist, siena, canisius, St. Pete) offenses. Of course, Iona is the 21st ranked offensive efficiency team in the country according to Kenpom and in their first meeting they were able to score 74 points when no other team in the MAAC has cracked 63 against them all year. Loyola simply does not have the pace or offensive firepower to win high scoring games, which plays right into Iona's hands of course.
Another interesting fact is that Loyola's conference record is a bit deceiving as they have played
most of the bad teams in the MAAC twice and still have THREE more very tough games after
this one (Fairfield at home in TWO DAYS, and still have matchups with
Rider and Manhattan on the road - Kenpom has them a slight fav against
Rider and a 4-pt dog against Manhattan). Iona will be DD favs in all four of their final four conference games. This game has Iona's full and undivided attention, while Loyola MD still has plenty of work to do the rest of the season.
I also like the fact that Iona is coming off of arguably their most
complete game of the season (12-pt win AT Manhattan) which was 6 days
ago and from all accounts and quotes they are singularly focused on
winning this game tonight which will put them in the driver's seat (control their own destiny) to
lock up the regular season
crowd (and avenge the overtime road loss at Loyola last season which
effectively cost them a chance at the regular season title last
season). Loyola lost their best player from that squad last year, while
Iona is bringing almost everyone back and combining them with their
juco transfers who have played in much better games and much tougher
environments.
I could also go on about how the teams have played in their last five games and how Iona has an awesome assist to turnover ratio and has also cranked up the defense creating almost 16 turnovers per game in their last five. I could also mention how Iona is only putting their opponents on the line 12 times per game over that span and how getting to the line is an important part of Loyola's game (they are 21st in the country in percentage of their offense that comes from free throws) as they don't shoot many 3's and are not very efficient from inside the arc (264th in the country). But I assume that you were already going to bet Iona anyway when you saw the line so small so all I'm posting this thread for is to say that I suggest that you not get "too cute" and look for reasons to back Loyola but go ahead and feel free to bet the square play that I know you were going to bet anyway. Good luck with whatever you decide and the rest of your card.
Coming off a nice Thursday, presystem went 2-1 (14-4 since Feb 1st, see Ryno's threads if your interested as I won't be making threads about it) and had a few nice wins with the Denver comeback, LMU, Nevada and an easy Riverside cover.
I'm on Iona tonight (got the moneyline reduced juice on 5dimes at a good price early this morning but I don't have a problem laying -2ish either). I'm fairly confident that this will be a popular (possible: square) play so I probably don't need to convince you, but here are a few quick hitters:
The MAAC is one of the conferences that I have specialized this year and if you have followed it much at all you probably understand the Loyola MD is a terrible matchup for most of the MAAC teams and a great matchup for Iona. Loyola has been able to ride a very solid defense (and slow tempo) against a conference full of mediocre (niagara, rider, manhattan, fairfield) and terrible (marist, siena, canisius, St. Pete) offenses. Of course, Iona is the 21st ranked offensive efficiency team in the country according to Kenpom and in their first meeting they were able to score 74 points when no other team in the MAAC has cracked 63 against them all year. Loyola simply does not have the pace or offensive firepower to win high scoring games, which plays right into Iona's hands of course.
Another interesting fact is that Loyola's conference record is a bit deceiving as they have played
most of the bad teams in the MAAC twice and still have THREE more very tough games after
this one (Fairfield at home in TWO DAYS, and still have matchups with
Rider and Manhattan on the road - Kenpom has them a slight fav against
Rider and a 4-pt dog against Manhattan). Iona will be DD favs in all four of their final four conference games. This game has Iona's full and undivided attention, while Loyola MD still has plenty of work to do the rest of the season.
I also like the fact that Iona is coming off of arguably their most
complete game of the season (12-pt win AT Manhattan) which was 6 days
ago and from all accounts and quotes they are singularly focused on
winning this game tonight which will put them in the driver's seat (control their own destiny) to
lock up the regular season
crowd (and avenge the overtime road loss at Loyola last season which
effectively cost them a chance at the regular season title last
season). Loyola lost their best player from that squad last year, while
Iona is bringing almost everyone back and combining them with their
juco transfers who have played in much better games and much tougher
environments.
I could also go on about how the teams have played in their last five games and how Iona has an awesome assist to turnover ratio and has also cranked up the defense creating almost 16 turnovers per game in their last five. I could also mention how Iona is only putting their opponents on the line 12 times per game over that span and how getting to the line is an important part of Loyola's game (they are 21st in the country in percentage of their offense that comes from free throws) as they don't shoot many 3's and are not very efficient from inside the arc (264th in the country). But I assume that you were already going to bet Iona anyway when you saw the line so small so all I'm posting this thread for is to say that I suggest that you not get "too cute" and look for reasons to back Loyola but go ahead and feel free to bet the square play that I know you were going to bet anyway. Good luck with whatever you decide and the rest of your card.
Very nice write-up, thank you for the time and effort. If only EVERY person posting would do this. You are most likely spot on, but my gut tells me LMD. Probably going to lay off now.
Very nice write-up, thank you for the time and effort. If only EVERY person posting would do this. You are most likely spot on, but my gut tells me LMD. Probably going to lay off now.
kine..just a question that was raised: if a line opens +5.5 or +6...and moves to +6.5 or better is it a system play.? i know appy was beat down to +6.....so that constitutes asystem play cuz it opened +6.5 right?
just was brought up..if you can give me a quick briefing..if not... we will live :) gl ryno
kine..just a question that was raised: if a line opens +5.5 or +6...and moves to +6.5 or better is it a system play.? i know appy was beat down to +6.....so that constitutes asystem play cuz it opened +6.5 right?
just was brought up..if you can give me a quick briefing..if not... we will live :) gl ryno
kine..just a question that was raised: if a line opens +5.5 or +6...and moves to +6.5 or better is it a system play.? i know appy was beat down to +6.....so that constitutes asystem play cuz it opened +6.5 right?
just was brought up..if you can give me a quick briefing..if not... we will live :) gl ryno
People can do whatever they want, if you are strictly following the system and can get 6.5 its a play for you, if someone else couldn't get that number, it technically "not" a play for them but, of course, they are free to play it anyway. More importantly, the question should be, how can we use the principles of the system to look at games and side we wouldn't normally consider. Take the Columbia game tonight for instance, Columbia - going into the Thursday night games they were 176 in the KP rankings, had a few of the teams just above (worst) than them played well on Thursday they would have dropped to 180 or worse, hence, making it a pre-system play. Instead numerous teams right above (better) than Columbia played badly, so when Kenpom rankings updated they became 170, hence, not a pre-system play. But why would the performances of other teams even effect if we look at this game or not? I literally haven't seen anyone talking about this game or, for sure, even begin to make the case for Brown (although the line has drop .5). But the performance of the pre-system (currently 14-4 in Feb) should be atleast getting people to CONSIDER Brown and other games that they normally wouldn't. Don't get to caught up in the details to miss the principle.
kine..just a question that was raised: if a line opens +5.5 or +6...and moves to +6.5 or better is it a system play.? i know appy was beat down to +6.....so that constitutes asystem play cuz it opened +6.5 right?
just was brought up..if you can give me a quick briefing..if not... we will live :) gl ryno
People can do whatever they want, if you are strictly following the system and can get 6.5 its a play for you, if someone else couldn't get that number, it technically "not" a play for them but, of course, they are free to play it anyway. More importantly, the question should be, how can we use the principles of the system to look at games and side we wouldn't normally consider. Take the Columbia game tonight for instance, Columbia - going into the Thursday night games they were 176 in the KP rankings, had a few of the teams just above (worst) than them played well on Thursday they would have dropped to 180 or worse, hence, making it a pre-system play. Instead numerous teams right above (better) than Columbia played badly, so when Kenpom rankings updated they became 170, hence, not a pre-system play. But why would the performances of other teams even effect if we look at this game or not? I literally haven't seen anyone talking about this game or, for sure, even begin to make the case for Brown (although the line has drop .5). But the performance of the pre-system (currently 14-4 in Feb) should be atleast getting people to CONSIDER Brown and other games that they normally wouldn't. Don't get to caught up in the details to miss the principle.
People can do whatever they want, if you are strictly following the system and can get 6.5 its a play for you, if someone else couldn't get that number, it technically "not" a play for them but, of course, they are free to play it anyway. More importantly, the question should be, how can we use the principles of the system to look at games and side we wouldn't normally consider. Take the Columbia game tonight for instance, Columbia - going into the Thursday night games they were 176 in the KP rankings, had a few of the teams just above (worst) than them played well on Thursday they would have dropped to 180 or worse, hence, making it a pre-system play. Instead numerous teams right above (better) than Columbia played badly, so when Kenpom rankings updated they became 170, hence, not a pre-system play. But why would the performances of other teams even effect if we look at this game or not? I literally haven't seen anyone talking about this game or, for sure, even begin to make the case for Brown (although the line has drop .5). But the performance of the pre-system (currently 14-4 in Feb) should be atleast getting people to CONSIDER Brown and other games that they normally wouldn't. Don't get to caught up in the details to miss the principle.
...good take...it was brought to my attention about brown being an 'almost' play... and i am adhering to strict guidelines and now reading above...i want to take the dog here. i remeber last year also there was discussion about 'almost' plays.. your input makes me look at more things in depth and gives another angle to wager on a 'good' number.i am going to play a unit on brown tonight as i liked ther points early on this am. go gaels also! thanks for your response...ryno
People can do whatever they want, if you are strictly following the system and can get 6.5 its a play for you, if someone else couldn't get that number, it technically "not" a play for them but, of course, they are free to play it anyway. More importantly, the question should be, how can we use the principles of the system to look at games and side we wouldn't normally consider. Take the Columbia game tonight for instance, Columbia - going into the Thursday night games they were 176 in the KP rankings, had a few of the teams just above (worst) than them played well on Thursday they would have dropped to 180 or worse, hence, making it a pre-system play. Instead numerous teams right above (better) than Columbia played badly, so when Kenpom rankings updated they became 170, hence, not a pre-system play. But why would the performances of other teams even effect if we look at this game or not? I literally haven't seen anyone talking about this game or, for sure, even begin to make the case for Brown (although the line has drop .5). But the performance of the pre-system (currently 14-4 in Feb) should be atleast getting people to CONSIDER Brown and other games that they normally wouldn't. Don't get to caught up in the details to miss the principle.
...good take...it was brought to my attention about brown being an 'almost' play... and i am adhering to strict guidelines and now reading above...i want to take the dog here. i remeber last year also there was discussion about 'almost' plays.. your input makes me look at more things in depth and gives another angle to wager on a 'good' number.i am going to play a unit on brown tonight as i liked ther points early on this am. go gaels also! thanks for your response...ryno
Tough game to bet against loyola. Loyola home win gives them control of the conference. GL
Its easy for me as I'm a stats and matchups guy, but I completely agree that this is a gritty, hard-nosed team that I would normally like to back, but not here - too many things have to go right for them to win tonight (not saying it won't just saying I wouldn't want my money on it).
Tough game to bet against loyola. Loyola home win gives them control of the conference. GL
Its easy for me as I'm a stats and matchups guy, but I completely agree that this is a gritty, hard-nosed team that I would normally like to back, but not here - too many things have to go right for them to win tonight (not saying it won't just saying I wouldn't want my money on it).
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