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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: !!!! CBB Tuesday !!!!
oddsbuster send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#1
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:12:43 AM
92-67-2 ytd netting +238.8 units...
11-12 (POD's) -16 units...

1-0 on Monday  netting +20 units nailing another outright winner on a dog.  After Sunday i'm currently on a 19-4-1 run in the past 8 days on straight bet's netting +273 units & 34-14-1 since 12/03 on straight bets now netting a total of +292 units in 9 days work. As always here's yesterdays thread below...

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101208453&page=1


Tuesday looks to have about 8 games on the wagering card. I've got my laptop in hand chilling in the Jacuzzi tub along with my pen and lots of paper. Getting ready to start reading right now. Be back shortly...

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Kaka123
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#2
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:15:28 AM
Don't drop the laptop.
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#3
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:27:54 AM
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#4
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:29:00 AM
Mississippi St -13.5... theyve been on a roll lately, covering their last 4 games. FAU is also ranked 250th in scoring defense in the country. I see an easy 20+ point victory for MSU. Thoughts?
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#5
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:30:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:

Don't drop the laptop.
Got a nice breakfast in bed stand I made for it in my garage.It sits about 8 to 10 inches above the water. There is no better place for the work place to be...
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#6
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:32:17 AM
Already seeing some advantages reading through all these box scores in the Dartmouth/IUPU-FT Wayne game. This is going to take a while so I'll be back in a bit...
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#7
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:34:11 AM
You my friend live in the lifestyle of rich & famous.

Good luck to you Sir OB !



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#8
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:44:52 AM
I have two jobs... I will be up at 430am to place my beta thanks to u and it the door by 515! I see niAgra game going under and Michigan game going under.... looking forward to reading ur post... Didn't follows ur nfl picks and down for the day! Thank god for ur college pick and went under on Portland @ Org game... Down 260 mang! Ur opinion on Atl under for Thursday night? Rams under!!!!!! 
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#9
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:45:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fortmax:

You my friend live in the lifestyle of rich & famous.

Good luck to you Sir OB !



One day, maybe. My Jacuzzi tub sits in just your average 1900 square foot house with 3 beds, 2 baths and my 2 car garage. My old house in Michigan I had a loft I built on top the garage for my man cave. Just renting right now in Ohio until the wife and I know if she is going to stay here long term. I'm just your average guy making more than the normal average size wagers on sports. Don't be fooled, i'm no Wayne Root and we are not going to be making millions doing this....



BOL, time to get back to reading...
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#10
Posted: 12/13/2011 12:51:55 AM
Great stuff odds, u been hot lately good work. I'm from Ohio too, if u don't mind me asking.. Where u at in Ohio? Yet again u might be a Michigan fan lol
Posted using a mobile device.
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#11
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:31:57 AM
Appreciate all you hard work Odd. Good luck and hope you continue your streaks 
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#12
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:37:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fortmax:

You my friend live in the lifestyle of rich & famous.

Good luck to you Sir OB !





minus the ohio part
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#13
Posted: 12/13/2011 1:41:15 AM
Best of luck tomorrow odds.

Let's keep these wins rollin' in!

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#14
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:08:09 AM
1st play is:

Dartmouth@IUPU - Ft. Wayne over 136.5 for 20 units... It seems we have a situation here where a slow paced team meets the fast paced team. While Dartmouth is going to see many mid to 120's in their totals this season because of their 50.5 shots per game average IPFW is going to consistently see totals in the high 140's or even 150's as IPFW averages 63.5 shots per game. This is by far the fastest team Dartmouth has seen all season long as they have played against teams averaging 55.8, 52.1, 56, 53.1, 58.3, 56 & 54.5 shots per game. This is one of the main reasons you will see that Dartmouth is only allowing 62ppg on defense this season as their schedule has been a quite heavily in favor of slower to medium paced teams. Not to mention those teams that Dartmouth played are currently ranked in scoring offense as follows @ 175, 296, 266, 101, 209, 275 & 124. It's no wonder that Dartmouth is only allowing 62ppg against these numbers. IPFW comes into this game ranked 37th overall in scoring offense along with the already mentioned 63 and a half shots per game mentioned above. By far the fastest on highest scoring offense that Dartmouth as seen this year. It's also rather alarming that IPFW has allowed 5 of the 7 D-1 teams they have played this season to exceed their shot total per game average as here are their following opponents along with shot per game averages followed by the shots they attempted vs IPFW along with the score of the game.

(@NEBO) avg 61.3spg had 73 shots (83-80ot)w
(Valpo) avg 44.8spg had 57 shots (85-76)w
(South Dakota) avg 54.6spg had 57 shots (92-87)w
(UMKC) avg 53.5spg had 45 shots (66-81)L
(@Iowa) avg 60.8 spg had 51 shots (72-82)L
(@Xavier) avg 55.9spg had 57 shots (63-86)L
(NEBO) avg 61.3spg had 65 shots (83-72)w

So as we can see above IPFW games have had totals of the following: 163, 161, 179, 147, 154, 149 & 152 as the lowest total IPFWhas played to all season was 147. Hell IPFW has already handled the leagues 2nd to last shots per game team in Valpo as they average just 44.8 shots per game ranking 345th overall as that game totaled 161 surpassing the 130's by a long shot. I'm more than willing to wager that Dartmouth is going to have good looks as IPFW is allowing their opponents to shot an eye popping 50% from the field this season which is most certainly in direct relation to their style of play on offense. I'm throwing down right now on a hefty size bet that says the offense of IPFW gets the better of this game and controls this one to a game which exceeds only the 130's easily. It's no wonder with these results that the books have given us only one opportunity this season to wager on a total in a IPFW game...POD
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#15
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:13:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Messier-11:



minus the ohio part
Yeah no offense to anyone else living here but it's nothing special IMO. Although the Toledo and Columbus zoo's are about as good as it gets for zoo's in the United States. Much better than the Detroit zoo, San Diego zoo & Los Angeles zoo IMO. I also took a small trip from Toledo area to Columbus a few weeks back and must say Columbus area is freaking beautiful. There was an area I drove through with the wife and kids that made me feel like I was in Beverly Hills or something. I never would have guessed the Columbus area to be so beautiful. And I'm a wolverine fan....
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#16
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:18:35 AM
Nice write with great points. The total has gone down to 135 however which contradicts everything.  Dartmouths games have gone under just as much as FW has gone over.  Bet it's within 3 points either way.  BOL to ya keep the info comin
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#17
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:25:29 AM
Interesting stats on the total.

With this being a home game for IPFW I like them to be able to dictate the pace. Could be a long night for Dartmouth if they aren't able to stop the break. Hence the 10 point spread. 

Pinnacle has had $ come in on the under as I got the over at +102.
Should be interesting to monitor the line movement on this one, it may go down in my opinion but I think the over is the correct play. Especially with the poor defensive schemes that IPFW has.




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#18
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:27:32 AM
I actually just got it at 134.5 at bookmaker just now...

Dartmouth@IUPU - Ft. Wayne over 134.5 for 20 units...POD



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#19
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:32:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JimmyTarHeel:

Nice write with great points. The total has gone down to 135 however which contradicts everything.  Dartmouths games have gone under just as much as FW has gone over.  Bet it's within 3 points either way.  BOL to ya keep the info comin
But notice that Dartmouth has played a complete dosage of pretenders in relation to offense. I'm a believer here in this spot that the fact that we are even able to get a total in the 130's is strictly because of what you just said above as Dartmouth so far is 4-1 to the under so far this season. But noticing that Dartmouth has played again offense's that rank as the following at  175, 296, 266, 101, 209, 275 & 124 and combining that with the fact that IPFW is 37th overall in offense and on top of that the books haven't even given us but one total to bet on all season in IPFW games leads me to believe maybe they should have kept it that way for this game as well...
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#20
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:33:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MARKY212:

total went down what you think? this one may have a slow pace...
Well i'm glad I don't bet games based on just line movement along. That would almost defeat the process i just went through to formulate this pick...
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#21
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:35:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

Interesting stats on the total.

With this being a home game for IPFW I like them to be able to dictate the pace. Could be a long night for Dartmouth if they aren't able to stop the break. Hence the 10 point spread. 

Pinnacle has had $ come in on the under as I got the over at +102.
Should be interesting to monitor the line movement on this one, it may go down in my opinion but I think the over is the correct play. Especially with the poor defensive schemes that IPFW has.




I also lean heavily to a wager on IPFW laying the points here. Dartmouth is out of their element in this game IMO...
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#22
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:37:32 AM
Basically the math equation for this game would be the following:

Fast tempo + Good Offence + Bad Defense = IPFW

Slow tempo + Bad Offence + Good Defense = Dartmouth

As oddsbuster has said, teams who play IPFW end up shooting MORE shots than their average. This benefits the over. They also play poor defense, which benefits the over. IPFW can score the ball, which benefits the over. Dartmouth can play D, which benefits the under. Dartmouth has struggles on offense, which benefits the under.

Look for quick buckets from IPFW off Dartmouth misses.

Looking at Dartmouth boxscores, one would be heavily influenced to play the under, hence the early line movement. But when IPFW puts up 75+ points tomorrow, the OVER is going to have a good chance of hitting.


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#23
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:41:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

I actually just got it at 134.5 at bookmaker just now...

Dartmouth@IUPU - Ft. Wayne over 134.5 for 20 units...POD




I got 136.5 with positive juice.

Can't even get 134.5 on Pinnacle at this point in time. 

Kind of sucks that I'll need an extra basket scored but lets hope this game hits 140 with about 3 minutes left.

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#24
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:46:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oddsbuster:

But notice that Dartmouth has played a complete dosage of pretenders in relation to offense. I'm a believer here in this spot that the fact that we are even able to get a total in the 130's is strictly because of what you just said above as Dartmouth so far is 4-1 to the under so far this season. But noticing that Dartmouth has played again offense's that rank as the following at  175, 296, 266, 101, 209, 275 & 124 and combining that with the fact that IPFW is 37th overall in offense and on top of that the books haven't even given us but one total to bet on all season in IPFW games leads me to believe maybe they should have kept it that way for this game as well...

yeah i never said I was taking under but it will be close.  if it continues to drop ill be right there with you on the Over.  Gonna sleep on it adn see what it does...
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#25
Posted: 12/13/2011 2:54:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

Basically the math equation for this game would be the following:

Fast tempo + Good Offence + Bad Defense = IPFW

Slow tempo + Bad Offence + Good Defense = Dartmouth

As oddsbuster has said, teams who play IPFW end up shooting MORE shots than their average. This benefits the over. They also play poor defense, which benefits the over. IPFW can score the ball, which benefits the over. Dartmouth can play D, which benefits the under. Dartmouth has struggles on offense, which benefits the under.

Look for quick buckets from IPFW off Dartmouth misses.

Looking at Dartmouth boxscores, one would be heavily influenced to play the under, hence the early line movement. But when IPFW puts up 75+ points tomorrow, the OVER is going to have a good chance of hitting.


Except I think that IPFW has shown us their real identity as they have played slow teams already as well as medium to fast type teams also already. But Dartmouth seems to have not shown us their true identity just yet I have absolutely no faith in believing that Dartmouth is a good defense ball club based on their schedule alone...
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