Friday Hoops

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Friday Hoops
iceroadtrucker PM iceroadtrucker
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Posted: 11/18/2011 3:15:45 PM
nropp, uc is now at +4...still pull the trigger with a 2* play?
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 3:18:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iceroadtrucker:

nropp, uc is now at +4...still pull the trigger with a 2* play?

I don't see it +4 anywhere other than the site here.
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 3:20:33 PM
Saturday Regular Games Projected's
PK Buffalo
PK Princeton
-7 Louisville (injuries)
+7 Butler
+7 Southern Illinois
-7 Northeastern
+13 NC Wilmington
-13 Dayton
-2 James Madison
+2 LaSalle
+19 CS Northridge
-19 Boise State
-2 George Mason
+2 Florida Atlantic (hope I’m wrong – want more)
+10 Wyoming
-10 Wisconsin Green Bay
+1 Southern Miss
-1 Colorado State
+10 UTEP
-10 New Mexico State
+19 Hawaii
-19 Gonzaga
-2 Harvard
+2 Loyola MMT
+13 San Jose State
-13 Santa Clara
+4 Long Beach State
-4 San Diego State
+9 Cal Poly SLO
-9 USC
+15 Coll Charleston
-15 Coll Charleston
-6 Weber State
+6 UC Irvine
+15 Montana State
-15 Utah
+20 Wofford
-20 Wisconsin
+4 Appalachian State
-4 Tennessee Tech
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 3:20:42 PM
Hall of Fame Tip Off (CT)
-14 Kentucky
+14 Penn State
-1 Old Dominion
+1 South Florida (expected total: 110)

Maui Regional (TN?)
+31 Towson
-31 Belmont
+15 NC Greensboro
-15 Middle Tenn State

2K SubRegionals (Valpo, IN)
-2 Duquesne
+2 Akron

2K SubRegionals (Lynchburg, VA)
+7 Eastern Kentucky
-7 William & Mary
PK Lehigh
PK  Liberty

Ticket City Legends Classic (NJ)
-8 Vanderbilt
+8 NC State
-19 Texas
+19 Oregon State
semperfi19 PM semperfi19
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Posted: 11/18/2011 3:23:35 PM

For those that are paragraphed challenged. See Below

  If you just skip to the picks you are not getting the full value of this thread.  A lot of this stuff is very helpful in capping for yourself.

 

I have no feel for Villanova yet, and the same can be said for Delaware.

About the only thing I dislike about UC Riverside walking into Youngstown State and stealing a win is the travel to get to Ohio. They match up eerily well with this Youngstown State. Youngstown State who is a team this year who is going to push the pace and make every game into an up and down track meet and they have acknowledged that on more than one occasion. The problem? They don’t really have the type of players to do it, and combine that with a lack of depth and this is a cover up. This team is running b/c it needs to get a quantity of shots rather than quality. Sure, the offensive numbers will look good at some point, and the guards have shown flashes of talent, but this system is quantity over quality this year. They need to attempt a high # of shots to have a chance, and Slocum knows it. One glaring weakness when playing this style of basketball also shows up on the defensive side of things. If the other team is attempting the same high # of shots, then you are going to have to stop them at some point and I’m not sure that’s going to be the case. They return nearly the same team as last year, and their strength is on the inside. The problem with this style is that the interior offense usually comes off an offensive rebound from a dumb shot from a guard b/c the guards will force a bit too much. Which leads me into this matchup tonight. If they can’t run and get the max shot attempts, they’re going to struggle. It showed last season as they struggled immensely to put the ball in the hoop against slower paced teams, and it carried over to their first game this year with Samford where they trailed until late. Cal Riverside brings in the exact style of play that Youngstown State doesn’t want to see. Slow it down, move the ball, wait for Youngstown to get out of position defensively, and take advantage. UC Riverside brings back pretty much their entire lineup, including a possible second-best backcourt in the Big West (LBSU better definitely). Having an experienced PG who can not only score, but dish the ball in Nitoto will be key as he should be able to find the gaping holes in this Youngstown State defense. Youngstown really has nobody to guard Martin on the perimeter as well, so I think he will get 20+ and they’re generally in good shape when he does that. Just a few of constants I like in this matchup, and I’ll be backing the team that is taking the better shots with the more sound offensive style of play. Youngstown State has a bit of revenge as they went to Riverside last year and lost, but again, they lost b/c they hate this slow game play. There is a reason to believe that we see a slight letdown from Youngstown as well. In the opener, they went on the road an ended a 23 game road losing streak, then they followed that up playing a D-II school at home where they set the school record for most three pointers in a single game. Once you start shooting those three’s and do something like that when you generally aren’t that talented to do so, you become complacent, and you’ll rely on those tendencies. I’ll take my chances, but again, I hate the travel. I’m getting a really experienced squad in a nice situation. Youngstown has Penn State on deck as well. Arkansas LR and Eastern Michigan should be a snooze-fest.

 I like St. Bonaventure, just a bit confused why they’re playing so slow when they have talent. I need to see a bit more.

This is probably not a good spot for Miami OH coming off a tough physical encounter with rival Dayton a few nights ago in OT. They go into Xavier, who has revenge from last year’s loss at Miami OH. Some value in the under I believe. Last year’s game was lined at 125, and it went over thanks to a totally different style of play from Xavier in the 2H as they tried to battle back into the game. The 1H totaled 47 points. After the switch in style, the 2H totaled 92. With Miami OH coming off the OT, and Xavier with revenge, I doubt we see a half of 92 again.

 No feel on Houston or Arkansas this early in the season

Arizona State with slight revenge and New Mexico coming off an awful loss.

No interest in Stanford. I can’t see myself venturing into the Paradise Jam all that often, the night games aren’t all that appealing

That beautiful offensive display from Maryland in yesterday’s 42 point victory was due in large part of the Alabama defense, so that gives us an ounce of value here.

Turgeon wants to go up and down as much as possible, and while he doesn’t have all that great of talent, increasing the # of possessions will increase the score. I have seen nothing from Colorado or Boyle in the last year and a half that makes me believe he’ll slow it down either. This one should get into the 70’s and neither defense is worth much in the grand scheme of things. Really just basing this play on hope for a slightly less defensive effort after a back-to-backers and two offenses that will get out and go.

I’m playing Alabama keeping everything in mind I wrote about Wichita in yesterday’s thread and I get a nice little postseason revenge angle to go along with it.

Seton Hall & St. Joseph’s should be a pretty good ballgame defensively. Unlike VCU, St. Joe’s brings some nice offensive firepower in the backcourt, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this one.

 I like Arizona, but they showed some weaknesses last night, primarily the inside game and the ability to depend on the three-ball. I think they’re offense is enough to win this thing, but they’ll have to keep shooting it as well as they have. Will be a really nice story for the Parrom kid if they can get the win.

The little tournament going on in Lafayette, LA is awful; no interest

We’ll know a lot more about Akron by the end of the weekend. Go to Valpo tonight, and get Duquesne on a neutral tomorrow. I give Akron the value here, but tough to win at Valpo.

Hunch in the Davidson/Duke game is an under, but not going to take a chance with those offenses. Projected’s for the weekend coming shortly.


 

 

 

 

DynastyOne PM DynastyOne
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Posted: 11/18/2011 3:46:44 PM
Thoughts on marquette ? 
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 3:53:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DynastyOne:

Thoughts on marquette ? 

I'm a big believer in Winthrop's defense and I think they can hang here for a while. Threw some monopoly money at Winthrop on here, but their offense cannot be trusted if this game happens to be played at the pace Marquette wants to.
fortunerich01 PM fortunerich01
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:05:24 PM
Nropp,

Would you be fading VCU again today against GTECH?  I have to think everyone is going to want a piece of that team this given their amazing run last April.  VCU opened as a 2.5 point fav.  Thanks man!
cashColt PM cashColt
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:07:41 PM
+15 Coll Charleston
-15 Coll Charleston

I'm gonna go ahead and say it. POY on CoC tomorrow 

But in all seriousness, at those numbers I'd lean

NE -7
CS North +19
Montana St +15
UTEP +10 
Dukes -2 
OSU +19 
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:10:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fortunerich01:

Nropp,

Would you be fading VCU again today against GTECH?  I have to think everyone is going to want a piece of that team this given their amazing run last April.  VCU opened as a 2.5 point fav.  Thanks man!

Wasn't interested. Would give Gtech advantage with getting Rice back. Probably a close, low scoring, defensive battle type game.
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:11:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cashColt:

+15 Coll Charleston
-15 Coll Charleston

I'm gonna go ahead and say it. POY on CoC tomorrow 

But in all seriousness, at those numbers I'd lean

NE -7
CS North +19
Montana St +15
UTEP +10 
Dukes -2 
OSU +19 

 (should read Clemson)
GetEveryDollar PM GetEveryDollar
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:11:53 PM
...as always...appreciate your time, insights, information, and plays...thank you...
lottamoneynono PM lottamoneynono
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:27:26 PM
Hey Nropp In need of a parlay package can you put together a 3 teamer for me Cool Breeze...On tonights contests.....
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:38:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lottamoneynono:

Hey Nropp In need of a parlay package can you put together a 3 teamer for me Cool Breeze...On tonights contests.....

I'll pick one, you pick the rest. You can pair any two games with Xavier ML -1400.

GL
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:50:23 PM
Nropp,

Huge fan here.  Just out of pure curiosity, why did you pick Purdue in your contest picks when you took Temple for 2 units?  Was this an accident, or does this just mean you don't put a whole lot of thought into those picks so followers should tread lightly when looking at them?
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 4:55:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Nropp,

Huge fan here.  Just out of pure curiosity, why did you pick Purdue in your contest picks when you took Temple for 2 units?  Was this an accident, or does this just mean you don't put a whole lot of thought into those picks so followers should tread lightly when looking at them?


Definitely did not realize I took Purdue in the contests, LOL. Was an accident.

Contests are just fun. I play way too many games in them.

GL
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 11/18/2011 5:04:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:

Night Notes: I have no feel for Villanova yet, and the same can be said for Delaware. About the only thing I dislike about UC Riverside walking into Youngstown State and stealing a win is the travel to get to Ohio. They match up eerily well with this Youngstown State. Youngstown State who is a team this year who is going to push the pace and make every game into an up and down track meet and they have acknowledged that on more than one occasion. The problem? They don’t really have the type of players to do it, and combine that with a lack of depth and this is a cover up. This team is running b/c it needs to get a quantity of shots rather than quality. Sure, the offensive numbers will look good at some point, and the guards have shown flashes of talent, but this system is quantity over quality this year. They need to attempt a high # of shots to have a chance, and Slocum knows it. One glaring weakness when playing this style of basketball also shows up on the defensive side of things. If the other team is attempting the same high # of shots, then you are going to have to stop them at some point and I’m not sure that’s going to be the case. They return nearly the same team as last year, and their strength is on the inside. The problem with this style is that the interior offense usually comes off an offensive rebound from a dumb shot from a guard b/c the guards will force a bit too much. Which leads me into this matchup tonight. If they can’t run and get the max shot attempts, they’re going to struggle. It showed last season as they struggled immensely to put the ball in the hoop against slower paced teams, and it carried over to their first game this year with Samford where they trailed until late. Cal Riverside brings in the exact style of play that Youngstown State doesn’t want to see. Slow it down, move the ball, wait for Youngstown to get out of position defensively, and take advantage. UC Riverside brings back pretty much their entire lineup, including a possible second-best backcourt in the Big West (LBSU better definitely). Having an experienced PG who can not only score, but dish the ball in Nitoto will be key as he should be able to find the gaping holes in this Youngstown State defense. Youngstown really has nobody to guard Martin on the perimeter as well, so I think he will get 20+ and they’re generally in good shape when he does that. Just a few of constants I like in this matchup, and I’ll be backing the team that is taking the better shots with the more sound offensive style of play. Youngstown State has a bit of revenge as they went to Riverside last year and lost, but again, they lost b/c they hate this slow game play. There is a reason to believe that we see a slight letdown from Youngstown as well. In the opener, they went on the road an ended a 23 game road losing streak, then they followed that up playing a D-II school at home where they set the school record for most three pointers in a single game. Once you start shooting those three’s and do something like that when you generally aren’t that talented to do so, you become complacent, and you’ll rely on those tendencies. I’ll take my chances, but again, I hate the travel. I’m getting a really experienced squad in a nice situation. Youngstown has Penn State on deck as well. Arkansas LR and Eastern Michigan should be a snooze-fest. I like St. Bonaventure, just a bit confused why they’re playing so slow when they have talent. I need to see a bit more. This is probably not a good spot for Miami OH coming off a tough physical encounter with rival Dayton a few nights ago in OT. They go into Xavier, who has revenge from last year’s loss at Miami OH. Some value in the under I believe. Last year’s game was lined at 125, and it went over thanks to a totally different style of play from Xavier in the 2H as they tried to battle back into the game. The 1H totaled 47 points. After the switch in style, the 2H totaled 92. With Miami OH coming off the OT, and Xavier with revenge, I doubt we see a half of 92 again. No feel on Houston or Arkansas this early in the season. Arizona State with slight revenge and New Mexico coming off an awful loss. No interest in Stanford. I can’t see myself venturing into the Paradise Jam all that often, the night games aren’t all that appealing. That beautiful offensive display from Maryland in yesterday’s 42 point victory was due in large part of the Alabama defense, so that gives us an ounce of value here. Turgeon wants to go up and down as much as possible, and while he doesn’t have all that great of talent, increasing the # of possessions will increase the score. I have seen nothing from Colorado or Boyle in the last year and a half that makes me believe he’ll slow it down either. This one should get into the 70’s and neither defense is worth much in the grand scheme of things. Really just basing this play on hope for a slightly less defensive effort after a back-to-backers and two offenses that will get out and go. I’m playing Alabama keeping everything in mind I wrote about Wichita in yesterday’s thread and I get a nice little postseason revenge angle to go along with it. Seton Hall & St. Joseph’s should be a pretty good ballgame defensively. Unlike VCU, St. Joe’s brings some nice offensive firepower in the backcourt, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this one. Georgia Tech gets Rice Jr back today right? One would think that would be enough offense to be enough to beat VCU. Tough to say, might take a bit to gel and get back into things. I like Arizona, but they showed some weaknesses last night, primarily the inside game and the ability to depend on the three-ball. I think they’re offense is enough to win this thing, but they’ll have to keep shooting it as well as they have. Will be a really nice story for the Parrom kid if they can get the win. The little tournament going on in Lafayette, LA is awful; no interest. We’ll know a lot more about Akron by the end of the weekend. Go to Valpo tonight, and get Duquesne on a neutral tomorrow. I give Akron the value here, but tough to win at Valpo. Hunch in the Davidson/Duke game is an under, but not going to take a chance with those offenses. Projected’s for the weekend coming shortly.

2* UC Riverside +7
1* Maryland/Colorado Over 140
1* Alabama ML -130
Leans: (Miami/Xavier Under 133.5)

GL



Read back through my November thread and studied this game a bit more this afternoon. Said coming in I thought they get this tournament, and their motivation to get it is at a high level. Adding: 

3* Arizona -3

GL
einyx PM einyx
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Posted: 11/18/2011 5:17:54 PM
Liking Zona
JEG53 PM JEG53
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Posted: 11/18/2011 6:30:16 PM
That total for MD-Colo down to 136.5,if your right I have a great #,lol but if not the winners will pay for it,cause you been money so far.
AgainstDaConsen PM AgainstDaConsen
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Posted: 11/18/2011 8:58:12 PM
Just need to avoid the OT moose in Youngstown...

I am on UC +7.5 Huge, just hoping for the best...  Regardless, good capping job.

Zona came out flat tonight.. 
einyx PM einyx
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Posted: 11/18/2011 9:00:03 PM
Zona just couldn't handle Bost's penetration into the lanes all day to feed the bigs
AgainstDaConsen PM AgainstDaConsen
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Posted: 11/18/2011 9:00:28 PM
two missed free throws to start for Riverside... 

I hate CBB sometimes...

Peace and GL to us
monkeebooger PM monkeebooger
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Posted: 11/18/2011 9:46:12 PM

UC Riverside

bullmoose PM bullmoose
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Posted: 11/18/2011 11:13:23 PM
nice day
iceroadtrucker PM iceroadtrucker
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Posted: 11/19/2011 12:18:30 AM
nropp, your analysis is greatly appreciated. i don't play every game you do.. but i do take into consideration everything you have to say- as your information is more vital than most analysts on ESPN. I havent bet on college basketball all year until today. I followed you last yr when you killed it all year and then fell off due to bad luck... However, this post is for the doubters. The people who come on here and bash you not coming through. I admire what you do. People need to realize, NROPP is human. A successful gambler breaks even. If he didn't post on here, which I personally think it makes him obligated to post plays, I think the guy could be unreal. If he played one game a day, a few a week then he would be amazing. But either way, all I wanted to say was take his information and run with it. Play what you want. He gives such valueable info- all of which is legit. If you take his play and lose, keep it to yourself. Through a yr + of following him I've learned to take what he says, respect his opinion, and go from there. In my first day of ncaa I took St.Johns(NROPP didn't know what to think, both coming off bad losses he said AM had the bttr team which was true as they were winning all game by a good number, however felt ST JOHNS had better coaching and better recruits and figured they'd be a ranked team this yr// playing at home helped)  I liked what he said about Maryland ovr and played that. Won. Took UC Riverside b/c of his opinion and won. I also took GTECH which he suggested but was worried about them not being in sync b/c of Rice JR being back. I'm not trying to hype myself up as a great gambler. I'm not. But I'm good enough to stick in the game rather than paying for bookies boats, homes, bikes, vacations ETC. NRopp can help, take his advice, pick your spots, make your own decisions. Don't make the guy hate coming on this site when he loses b/c all your bitter DGs are sick of losing and can't pick a game on your own.  
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