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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: ***GWarner27's 11/14 NCAAB Picks (3-2 60% YTD)***
GWarner27
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#1
Posted: 11/13/2011 10:25:56 PM
+0.80

Dogs 2-1 +0.90
Faves 1-1 -0.10
Over 0-0 +0.00
Under 0-0 +0.00
1st Half 0-0 +0.00
Halftimes 0-0 +0.00
Buybacks: 0-0 +0.00

Posted records:
2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657
2009-10: 141-136-4 (50.9%) +1.294
2010-11: 114-79-4 (59.1%) +31.085

November 3-2 +0.80
December 0-0 +0.00
January 0-0 +0.00
February 0-0 +0.00
March 0-0 +0.00
April 0-0 +0.00

Notes:
-Vandy's loss was the big shock of the day, much of it was thanks to Cleveland State reflecting the toughness of their coach expecting rebounds instead of wanting them. CSU was much smaller yet they looked really good rebounding and were scoring inside, too. The Vikings finished the day shooting 50% thanks to easy inside shots while the 'Dores struggled with no inside threats. I'm not sure how they're going to work that out until Ezeli returns and that's not anytime soon
-Arizona is going to struggle against good big men this year as evidenced by a decent one from Ball State going off for 25 and 9 while his team collapsed around him
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#2
Posted: 11/13/2011 10:32:20 PM
GWarner, before last year, you were around 50% and last year jumped big to 59%. Congrats. How did you change the way to cap the games? 
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GWarner27
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#3
Posted: 11/13/2011 11:03:47 PM
from yesterday's thread...

quick thoughts:
-Cooley at PC against his last team Fairfield is interesting, Fairfield may be better
-Richmond lost a ton, Davidson returning a good amount
-Fresno will have to play with pace considering they don't have size, Stanford not a great frontcourt either
-Both SMU & CSU looking to run this year according to their coaches
-UNI isn't as good as they looked yesterday, SMC always dominates at home cuz they hit their shots and a ton of travel for UNI heading from one coast to the other with hardly any time to practice/prepare
-Zags should own the middle vs. Wazzu, Cougs with a bunch of shooters
-Nebraska will be much better with Bo Spencer at PG and they have size inside, USC way down missing their MVP Vucevic and with Jio Fontan out
-UNLV would be a great team to play considering their defense and how Nevada couldn't do anything in the half-court vs. Mizz St but this game will be played with pace and should have a bunch of open floor scenarios
-Notre Dame is down this year, if Holman is playing for Detroit they could pull an upset especially when you consider McCallum (coach's son)
-UW-MIL should be a lot better than NIU, not sure how much they lost on top of my head though
-FSU with a huge advantage inside against anyone, UCF returns some talent

add
Detroit +8.5 (-110) @ Notre Dame
-Both teams aren't at full strength as it looks like Holman will be missing from Detroit's frontcourt and Tim Abromaitis still suspended for a few more games. Basically this Notre Dame team is nothing like what they have been for the past few years and they face a team with a player who could easily start for them in Ray McCallum (coach's son) who played with the US National team this summer. Without Abro, they have a new PG starter with some experience and then a swingman who hasn't been a focal point in any offense whether it was at ND or at Purdue. Their frontcourt doesn't have much in it and I'm not sure this squad will be able to continue the dominance at home like their predecessors even with Abromaitis.
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GWarner27
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#4
Posted: 11/13/2011 11:05:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hyvong:

GWarner, before last year, you were around 50% and last year jumped big to 59%. Congrats. How did you change the way to cap the games? 


good question, I think I was a lot more selective and probably a little fortunate though I still had my share of bad beats
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zamigo6
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#5
Posted: 11/13/2011 11:23:25 PM
Love the Detroit play...on it as well

BOL
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GWarner27
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#6
Posted: 11/14/2011 12:27:42 AM
interests:
UCF-- I'm of the opinion that last year's FSU offense was terrible, but they're going to have more trouble trying to score this year than last now that Derwin Kitchen has exhausted his eligibility. Kitchen wasn't the perfect PG, but he made the big plays when FSU needed them and we all saw how bad that offense was when he wasn't in and even when he was. The 'Noles will have a huge advantage inside as the only proven big for UCF is 6'8" Keith Clanton, but the Knights have some bodies in a few big-time transfers and then a highly-rated recruit.

leans:
NEB pk

add
Davidson -4 (-110) vs. Richmond
-This isn't the same Spiders team that made the Sweet 16 last March, they actually struggled to get past American in their first game of the season while the Wildcats destroyed a Division II team. Travel is a negative for the Spiders, actually just read a starter tweeting about being across the street from a Bojangles restaurant so who knows about their nutrition for tomorrow (kidding). Back to reality, Davidson has a ton of size returning as their shortest starter is 6'3" plus they can shoot the ball. The shooting should get them a big lead against the odd defense Richmond plays that closely resembles a matchup zone and they'll shoot well from the line if they need to late. The Spiders miss Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper for leadership, and we'll realize how much Mooney misses them when the replacements struggle to score tomorrow against a high-flying team with a smart coach.
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#7
Posted: 11/14/2011 5:40:33 AM
Good Luck G.  Leaning on Detroit
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GWarner27
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#8
Posted: 11/14/2011 8:53:39 AM
orange, zamigo


Not playing UCF based off the suspensions including their head coach, also not interested in Nebraska until their offense starts to gel because they really struggled in their first game of the season and I'm sure Kevin O'Neill will use the zone which NU hasn't demonstrated they could beat for years now
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#9
Posted: 11/14/2011 9:37:34 AM
 Agree with Davidson..lean Detroit but no play for me.
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TRoe15
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#10
Posted: 11/14/2011 9:41:11 AM
Davidson is on my short list for today. Good luck.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#11
Posted: 11/14/2011 9:53:37 AM
BOL G

Nebraska/USC will be a very interesting game
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#12
Posted: 11/14/2011 10:02:10 AM
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#13
Posted: 11/14/2011 10:02:20 AM
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GWarner27
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#14
Posted: 11/14/2011 10:15:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by npearl:

BOL G

Nebraska/USC will be a very interesting game

it sucks that everything is televised so sparingly at the beginning of the year, but if I can't watch it'll be definitely worth it to look at the box score because a lot of the recent conference doormats are set to have much better years this year (i.e. Nebraska, Iowa State, Oregon)

tmp, jr, bearcat 
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GWarner27
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#15
Posted: 11/14/2011 10:15:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRoe15:

Davidson is on my short list for today. Good luck.

if I were you, I'd grab it ASAP before it hits 6 
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#16
Posted: 11/14/2011 10:44:21 AM
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#17
Posted: 11/14/2011 12:05:34 PM
davison -6.5 now
detroit +7

still plays or should i pass on these?

Thanks
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GWarner27
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#18
Posted: 11/14/2011 3:10:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BlackCat:

davison -6.5 now
detroit +7

still plays or should i pass on these?

Thanks

Tough call, BC, I would say yes on Detroit, 6.5 is the lowest I'd go and probably no on Davidson at 6.5 despite the fact that Davidson should cover anything below 10, imo 
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#19
Posted: 11/14/2011 3:46:19 PM
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#20
Posted: 11/14/2011 5:01:42 PM
nebraska moneyline
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GWarner27
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#21
Posted: 11/14/2011 5:15:23 PM
Tuesday's marathon thoughts:
-WVU down a little with the loss of glue guy PG and my HS classmate Joe Mazzulla, also lost a good defender in John Flowers. Return plenty inside and they will kill the glass, which should be a good matchup for Kent State who is good inside as well. WVU better and at home, but this could be a good-sized spread
-Baylor's zone should make it really hard for a depleted SDSU team to score if the BU offense cooperates, also an early start for a West Coast team at noon local time
-Baby Longhorns will play at pace and they have some shooters along with defensive bigs. URI has a shooter of their own, a lengthy defender and not much else
-Thug U without DeQuan Jones due to suspension and then Reggie Johnson with the injury and same for Julian Gamble. Rutgers with a solid coach but new PG and ? in the entire backcourt. Miami has two awesome guards
-Dayton new coach but they have a 3pt shooter, new PGs and depth inside. MIAoh with a solid C and some solid perimeter players minus a 3pt shooter
-Villanova isn't great but La Salle is terrible
-Charlotte with speed on perimeter and post scorer, CMU with a good wing in the coach's son but not much outside in terms of shooting and not much inside either
-Duke with the guards to score and the bigs to rebound, Sparty doesn't have the talent in the backcourt and their frontcourt won't be able to push the Plumlee's around like they did with UNC's softees
-Mizz State looked fantastic vs. Nevada with a shooter playing the 5, a baller at the 3 and some new guards that can spell each other at the point. Ark State was great at home LY with great FG% defense, but they have a new PG and that's always scary. 
-Ohio State one of the most complete teams in the country with shooting, a big guy and solid D. Florida with nothing inside to the point where Sullinger should do whatever he wants inside with Patrick Young. Florida is going to play uptempo with the small lineup, but they're never the same on the road and will have to get easy buckets in transition or make perimeter shots. I'm not sure how deep tOSU is on the perimeter, though
-Saint Louis is supposed to be great this season returning a lot and playing their slow pace. SoILL has a good big but two big guys are gone and D is a question. Backcourt looks okay, while SLU has some guys blocking shots ranging from 6'5" to 6'8" to 6'11"
-Iowa State too hard to predict at this point
-Arizona State isn't good, but Pepperdine has a new PG an JUCO players and lost their top scorer.
-Kentucky is 1A to UNC's #1, which looks in doubt after playing so poorly on the ship. As for UK, they are young but extremely talented while Kansas has experience but nowhere near the talent nor depth because of some ineligible players going to phony prep schools. I have serious questions about KU and they won't have the HCA for them which is a huge difference just being away from the Phog while Rupp will add it to the home team
-No clue on Santa Clara-UCSB but Kevin Foster vs. Orlando Johnson should be fun to watch
-MTSU has a big disadvantage inside although Dendy is good, Ucla should be angry after the loss to LMU who MTSU beat on Sunday
-Drexel with great defense and rebounding plus a top scorer returning heading to Rider off a close loss @Pitt. Rider with size and shooters, but still not sure their offense is as fluid as it was after losing two big scorers to graduation
-Belmont should be cheap @Memphis considering they were cheap @Duke and almost won. Belmont with the full-court press and a bunch of 3pt shots. Memphis returns a ton with scoring in the BC and a similar 3pt talent despite youth. They are at home and they will shoot better plus they have a very good incoming freshman big and depth to counter the press.
-Cal with a short turnaround with only a day off before Austin Peay comes in, who returns the OVC leading scorer and then the team's top scorer in 2009 who returns from injury. A good defender is back with very little lost. Cal with Cobbs at the point looked good the other night, then a good defender and shooter in Gutierrez plus a scorer in Allen Crabbe. Kamp in the post is scary but AP has a solid 6'8" center.

guesses:
WVU 6-8
BAY 8-9
TEX 17-19
MIAfl 8
MIAoh 1-2
Nova 23-24
CHA 2-3
Duke 7-8
Ark State 2
tOSU 8
SLU 4-5
ASU 15-16
UK 13-14
Ucla 9
Rider 5-7
Memphis 8
Cal 10-11
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badlands
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#22
Posted: 11/14/2011 6:13:38 PM
gl this year g 
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#23
Posted: 11/14/2011 6:15:10 PM
BOL this year G    
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GWarner27
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#24
Posted: 11/14/2011 6:17:27 PM
leans:
MIAoh +3.5
Ark State +3
Rider +3
Memphis -4
Austin Peay +12.5

add
Kentucky -4 (-110) vs. Kansas
-Didn't realize the game is in NYC so my guessed line is high, but I think UK is good enough to cover a possession even on a neutral.
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GWarner27
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#25
Posted: 11/14/2011 6:41:27 PM
jose, bad 
scratch Miami OH off that list because they are down to 1 returning starter with their best 3pt shooter gone to graduation, 2nd best gone due to suspension (theft) then the last one missing preseason with a bad foot before you get to the first guy off the bench with a bad knee
updated leans:
Ark State +3
Rider +3
Memphis -4
Austin Peay +12.5
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