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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Early Wednesday Leans
berghawk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
berghawk
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#1
Posted: 2/8/2011 11:20:06 PM

Had a nice night behind Kentucky and the 2nd half under.  Going ahead and writing off the Utah game as a loss and moving on to Wednesday.

Early Leans

Northwestern +3

Notre Dame -4 (Been fading away on Louisville for some time gonna continue here)

Syracuse -4.5 (Cuse's inside game will be too much and I think GTown will settle for a lot of bad shots against the zone)

Memphis +2.5

Villanova -6

South Carolina +4 (Will probably go up and I think its a let down spot for Florida)

South Florida +6

Mississippi St -1

Iowa +7 (Look ahead to the weekend showdown with OSU for Wisky)

Will probably narrow it down.  thought?

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berghawk
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#2
Posted: 2/9/2011 4:28:45 PM

Locking in the following for tonight:

Large Plays

Notre Dame -4 (Louisville isnt nearly as good as their Big East record suggests and I dont think the books have caught up with them.  They stole games against Marquette, West Virginia and UConn.  Not to mention Knowles having an issue with his hamstring and Van Treese coming down with an illness.  Ive watched Louisville bail themselves out with three pointers all year long and it has made me sick.  They just arent that great of a team and tend to turn it over a lot.  I think Notre Dame is a team on a mission and I see this as being a blowout tonight in South Bend.)

Syracuse -4.5 (Has anyone watched Georgetown attempt to beat a zone this year?  It been atrocious in my opinion.  Unless Chris Wright decides to drive all night long or Freeman is lights out I see GTown struggling to score.  Their frontcourt just doesnt have the passing skills or the depth to match Syracuse.)  Orange in a rout!

MEDIUM PLAYS

Air Force +10 (Air Force hung around at BYU the first time and lost by 10.  BYU outrebounded Air Force by 13 in the first game and 13 of their rebounds were offensive boards.  I think Air Force makes it a priority to rebound and hangs around in this one and scares BYU but comes up just short

Iowa +7 Taking this because the line seems small and I think its a sandwich game for Wisky between Michigan State and Ohio State.  Iowa has been playing pretty solid at home and they just beat Indiana on the road who (save for last night) has given the top teams in the Big Ten some fits.

Rutgers +6 Was thinking about making this a big play.  In the first game Rutgers actually led by four at the half.  However Villanova won by 16.  Reason being:  Nova shot 35 free throws, three guys (Beatty, Biruta and Miller) fouled out and the Wildcats shot a blazing 53% from deep.  I also have a small amount on the moneyline here as I think Nova also has a major look ahead game with Pitt on Saturday.

SMALL PLAYS

Colorado -3 A&M has been struggling to shoot the ball of late and teams are really focusing on ball denial on Middleton.  No one else has stepped up and they have been beaten like a drum recently.  I made this a small play because the Aggies do still have some talent and play some stingy man to man defense; plus I just struggle putting a lot of money on the Buffaloes in any instance as they have been so bad for so long.

South Carolina +4.5 The Gamecocks already won in Gainesville straight up.  Florida is leading a pretty much mediocre SEC and I think USC comes out and beats them again, esp after their emotional win against Kentucky on Saturday.

Memphis ML Might be a trap but I think the young Tigers may be learning how to play.  Dont forget they had the #1 recruiting class in the nation and while there is talent, that talent takes awhile to adjust to the college game and Vegas hasnt adjusted to them.  Plus what on earth has UCF shown anyone in the C-USA?  Thanks for the juice Vegas.  Ill take it.

Leans but no play - Miss St -1, South Florida +6

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berghawk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
berghawk
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#3
Posted: 2/9/2011 4:37:10 PM

Adding one more play

Oklahoma +11 Texas has been winning by double digits everytime out.  I see an off shooting night for the Longhorns here and a possible loss and a big night from Cade Davis.  This bet is nothing more than a team (Texas) being due for a close one on the road that goes down to the final few possessions.

Also parlayed a very small amount on the OU and Rutgers moneyline as a nice little bonus bet.

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$$CMoney$$ send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
$$CMoney$$
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#4
Posted: 2/9/2011 4:47:27 PM
Great write ups Berg...Good luck tonight
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berghawk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
berghawk
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#5
Posted: 2/9/2011 5:38:46 PM
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