Thursday "Presystem" Plays

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Thursday "Presystem" Plays
KineProfessor PM KineProfessor
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Posted: 2/2/2011 11:49:54 PM
If you haven't read about the system - here is the link: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100965010

Here is how the "Presystem" has done so far: 8-0

Jan 29th "Pre" System: 6-0

#293 Samford -6.5, LOST by 19 (system win)
#184 Miami (OH) -6.5, LOST by 5 (system win)
#226 Bowling Green -7.5 won by 5 (system win)
#259 Portland St. -9, won by 6 (system win)
#180 Penn -9, won by 2 in OT (system win)
#295 Eastern Illinois -7, LOST by 10 (system win)

Jan 30th "Pre" System: 1-0
#236 Illinois State -6.5, won by 2 in OT (system win)

Jan 31st - NO PLAYS

Feb 1st - NO PLAYS

Feb 2nd "Pre" System 1-0
#203 Southern Illinois -8, LOST by 21 (system win)

Also - the "almost" plays are above .500 as well

Here are today's system plays:
Feb 3rd: PLAY AGAINST #201 Middle Tenn St -12.5
SYSTEM PLAY: UL Monroe +12.5

PLAY AGAINST #189 Western Kentucky -10.5
SYSTEM PLAY: South Alabama +10.5

PLAY AGAINST #278 Tenn Chatt -12.5
SYSTEM PLAY: Georgia Southern +12.5

Normally, all of our system plays aren't very attractive and when you wait, you normally get a better line.  That being said, I think you might consider grabbing South Alabama and Georgia Southern sooner rather than later as I don't think these lines will move our way (but I could certainly be wrong).  I do think that if you wait to get Monroe, you will probably be able to get atleast +13 (and maybe even better than that)

We do have a few "almost" "pre" "system" plays that you might want to consider and look more closely at:

REPEAT THESE ARE NOT PRESYSTEM PLAYS - just ones that were kind of close so you might want to look at them:
#151 Detroit -11 against Illinois Chicago
#282 Troy -4 against Florida International
#150 Idaho -5.5 against San Jose St

LET ME REPEAT ONE MORE TIME - I would bet the three presystem plays without hesitation and the less you look at those three games the better off you will be.  As I am sure someone will come into this thread and warn us "to be careful" betting one (or all) of these crappy teams - hahahaha

I would, however, look closely at the three "almost" pressystem plays to see if the above mentioned teams are getting too much credit for being at home (Troy) or getting too much credit for winning the previous matchup (Detroit). 

Lastly, I would suggest that you look at the Sac St/Portland game.  If you remember Sac St was a presystem play last Saturday and fell behind by 20+ points in the first half and were down as many as I believe 26 or so before posting a miraculous 56 2nd half points to get us a relatively easy cover.  Now Sac St is -1 at home in the rematch 5 days later which begs the question, did they find something out that they can exploit in this matchup or are they getting too much credit for being at home and for miraculously catching fire from the field and making the score way more respectable than it should have been?  It really seems like there is an angle here that we should exploit.

I'll be around tomorrow periodically throughout the day to discuss, we are all in this together
PurduePride2206 PM PurduePride2206
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Posted: 2/2/2011 11:56:55 PM
fantastic...interesting point in the sac. st game
nbafan88 PM nbafan88
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:04:14 AM
Jaysvdubwhat PM Jaysvdubwhat
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:07:14 AM
I would say in that Sac st gm . They miraculously caught fire

Sac st is pretty terrible team
tinfoils PM tinfoils
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:10:56 AM
As always, A GREAT READ! Good luck!
stlkid0587 PM stlkid0587
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:11:35 AM
Hey buddy just wanted to come back in and tell you great job with the Drake pick... I was completely wrong...Keep the winners coming 
Fishscale PM Fishscale
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:27:03 AM
Good god, those "almost system" plays are just downright hideous.  Looking at the splits now, which turd do I want?
bense197969 PM bense197969
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:31:16 AM

Keep it rollin'

Reach PM Reach
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:44:11 AM
TheShotDoctor PM TheShotDoctor
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:44:16 AM


Lastly, I would suggest that you look at the Sac St/Portland game.  If you remember Sac St was a presystem play last Saturday and fell behind by 20+ points in the first half and were down as many as I believe 26 or so before posting a miraculous 56 2nd half points to get us a relatively easy cover.  Now Sac St is -1 at home in the rematch 5 days later which begs the question, did they find something out that they can exploit in this matchup or are they getting too much credit for being at home and for miraculously catching fire from the field and making the score way more respectable than it should have been?  It really seems like there is an angle here that we should exploit.

Confused Here...I UNDERSTAND Your Statement...but What's The ANGLE...SAC ST -1 or PORTLAND +1???

Heatseeker PM Heatseeker
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:45:27 AM

 

NORCALPLAYA PM NORCALPLAYA
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:50:55 AM
TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 2/3/2011 12:56:16 AM
My man
mike214 PM mike214
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Posted: 2/3/2011 1:02:07 AM

thanks for all the hard work day in and day out! hope we have a succesful season once the pre systems are out the way!!

 

BrownBearBets PM BrownBearBets
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Posted: 2/3/2011 1:11:06 AM

Best system I've seen so far on covers...waiting till the real system starts but the pre system is killin it...nice work
Ools PM Ools
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Posted: 2/3/2011 1:47:38 AM
Kine question - since Chatanooga is in 1st place in their conference, isnt this really against the spirit of the "system"? I may lay off this one
JDubs800 PM JDubs800
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Posted: 2/3/2011 2:09:56 AM
Port +1  - Shocked that Sac St is favored in this one. Kine, you are the best on here, your plays have been magic. Love the "pre-system" and the write-ups. Thanks again!
paul_scholes PM paul_scholes
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Posted: 2/3/2011 2:13:45 AM
I know nothing about college basketball (happily) so these system plays are no-brainers for me. Cheers.
nanihuntah PM nanihuntah
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Posted: 2/3/2011 2:38:38 AM

Chimpo PM Chimpo
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Posted: 2/3/2011 3:22:46 AM
Orangemen44 PM Orangemen44
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Posted: 2/3/2011 4:53:23 AM
n2418 PM n2418
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Posted: 2/3/2011 5:12:13 AM

wow kine. love the system. gonna play it out.

SteelCrush PM SteelCrush
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Posted: 2/3/2011 6:22:44 AM
KBrick84 PM KBrick84
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Posted: 2/3/2011 6:40:58 AM
I really think Sac St just happened to catch fire in that game, and even with throwing down a 56pt half...they still gave up 44.  Which tells me Portland St was likely okay with just running up and down the court cause they knew Sac St couldn't stop them.

They have basically have Toles-Bay as the main threat.  I think the scoring was bolstered by Walter Jackson going for 16pts when he averages only 5ppg and hasn't scored more than 10 in well over a month.  They also shot 91% at the charity stripe when they are typically under 70%  So something tells me it was just a random hot shooting night.
fishsticks PM fishsticks
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Posted: 2/3/2011 7:07:28 AM
Great Work Bro
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