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Another addition of Low Post, though I am not sure what my record is on here for the year (or all time) for that matter, I do know we haven't lost a post in a while and have been hot for several years on my write-ups. Tonight should be another notch on the bed post when Wake heads to FSU.
Quietly (so to speak) FSU has become a force in the ACC. This is not an easy task when you look at the usual forerunners on Tobacco Road. However lately, Florida State has been the 2nd winningest program in the ACC over the last 3 seasons (since the start of the 2008-09 season) in total ACC regular season and also ACC Tournament games.
The Noles have won 27 games against ACC teams. FSU played in the 2009 ACC Championship game and is one of only two teams in the ACC (they are joined by Duke) who has finished with double digit wins and in the top four of the final ACC standings in BOTH of the last two seasons.
Wake Forrest comes i a pretty below average overall squad, a bad ACC squad and most importantly a terrible road team as they are 0-5 on the road this season. They have lost their past 3 road games by a total 73 points combined.
At first glance, a quick look at the two squads statistical per game averages seem fairly close. Overall FSU averages 69 points FOR and so does Wake. But on D overall games FSU only allows an averages 60 AGAINST to Wake's 75 AGAINST.
The big factor, as I alluded to above, is Wake being on the road. Boy how the numbers get out of whack when they travel. Wake drops to an average 64 points FOR on the road and an abominable 86 AGAINST. Thats a differential average of -22.
To make matters worse for Wake...FSU is 9-2 at home (and one of the losses was Ohio State.) FSU averages 70 FOR at home and only 57 AGAINST. A differential of +13.
Though I don't use it as an exact science, these +/- ratios are very helpful in determining whether these teams are even in the same ballpark in a home and away situation. Clearly with a 36 overall differential in this spot, I wouldn't even consider these teams surprised if the final score wasn't around 36 point spread or more...
If your thinking dead spot for FSU tonight, consider they are coming off an embarrassing 18 point loss (as 2.5 point dog) at Clemson. The spread of the Clemson game is noteworthy because it means FSU was probably very upset with the result of that game they obviously thought was winnable (or at least the oddsmakers did).
The Wake problem tonight... like the past games I have posted in NCAA BB, the big problem wake will have covering the 18.5 is the FSU Defense. I find that over the years, the road dogs that cover big spreads do so by geting some scoring when the game sis seemingly out of hand (hitting easy shots and 3's while the favorite costs and gives away an easy cover.)
Here is why that won't happen here. FSU will get a big lead, but the difference here is FSU Defense. Currently FSU ranked #1 in the ACC and #1 in the Nation in FG% AGAINST. They are ranked #1 in the ACC in 3-point FG% AGAINST (11th in the Nation) and are ranked # 1 in the ACC in blocked shots (#8 in the Nation). FSU also boasts the ACC's 2nd best PPG AGAINST defense in the ACC )allowing an average 60.)
Tonight FSU will blow by Wake early.... and unfortunately for Wake... FSU will not let them back in the gym with the stifling defense. FSU rolls, lay the -18.5!
Good Luck!
Quietly (so to speak) FSU has become a force in the ACC. This is not an easy task when you look at the usual forerunners on Tobacco Road. However lately, Florida State has been the 2nd winningest program in the ACC over the last 3 seasons (since the start of the 2008-09 season) in total ACC regular season and also ACC Tournament games.
The Noles have won 27 games against ACC teams. FSU played in the 2009 ACC Championship game and is one of only two teams in the ACC (they are joined by Duke) who has finished with double digit wins and in the top four of the final ACC standings in BOTH of the last two seasons.
Wake Forrest comes i a pretty below average overall squad, a bad ACC squad and most importantly a terrible road team as they are 0-5 on the road this season. They have lost their past 3 road games by a total 73 points combined.
At first glance, a quick look at the two squads statistical per game averages seem fairly close. Overall FSU averages 69 points FOR and so does Wake. But on D overall games FSU only allows an averages 60 AGAINST to Wake's 75 AGAINST.
The big factor, as I alluded to above, is Wake being on the road. Boy how the numbers get out of whack when they travel. Wake drops to an average 64 points FOR on the road and an abominable 86 AGAINST. Thats a differential average of -22.
To make matters worse for Wake...FSU is 9-2 at home (and one of the losses was Ohio State.) FSU averages 70 FOR at home and only 57 AGAINST. A differential of +13.
Though I don't use it as an exact science, these +/- ratios are very helpful in determining whether these teams are even in the same ballpark in a home and away situation. Clearly with a 36 overall differential in this spot, I wouldn't even consider these teams surprised if the final score wasn't around 36 point spread or more...
If your thinking dead spot for FSU tonight, consider they are coming off an embarrassing 18 point loss (as 2.5 point dog) at Clemson. The spread of the Clemson game is noteworthy because it means FSU was probably very upset with the result of that game they obviously thought was winnable (or at least the oddsmakers did).
The Wake problem tonight... like the past games I have posted in NCAA BB, the big problem wake will have covering the 18.5 is the FSU Defense. I find that over the years, the road dogs that cover big spreads do so by geting some scoring when the game sis seemingly out of hand (hitting easy shots and 3's while the favorite costs and gives away an easy cover.)
Here is why that won't happen here. FSU will get a big lead, but the difference here is FSU Defense. Currently FSU ranked #1 in the ACC and #1 in the Nation in FG% AGAINST. They are ranked #1 in the ACC in 3-point FG% AGAINST (11th in the Nation) and are ranked # 1 in the ACC in blocked shots (#8 in the Nation). FSU also boasts the ACC's 2nd best PPG AGAINST defense in the ACC )allowing an average 60.)
Tonight FSU will blow by Wake early.... and unfortunately for Wake... FSU will not let them back in the gym with the stifling defense. FSU rolls, lay the -18.5!
Good Luck!
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