Low Post: TCU @ New Mexico

Question

Another edition of Low Post brings us to "The Pit" at New Mexico (UNM).

Tonight I look for the host Lobos to absolutely dismantle TCU. At first glance the teams SU records and recent form would make TCU +12.5 look awfully attractive, but we won't fall into that trap.

TCU comes in 10-11 SU with New Mexico coming in at 13-7 SU. Although its possible two teams with these types of SU records would garner a 10+ spread, it certainly isn't typical. Especially considering that New Mexico has lost 3 consecutive SU games.

It's with the last point (NM losing 3 in a row) that the really trickery in the line comes into play. It makes laying more then 10 a scary sounding proposition. But looking more closely, is it really that bad?

Consider that 2 of the 3 UNM losses came against teams that have a combined SU record of 36-5 (SDSU who is 20-0 and UNLV who is 16-5....please note 2 of UNLVs 5 losses were versus top 10 teams.)

UNM's other loss was on the road at Utah (a sandwich game between SDSU and UNLV.) In the Utah game UNM fought back in the second half, but the Utes hit 10 3-point shots in the game and it proved to much.)

So all the 3 UNM looses in a row look bad, they really (except for Utah) were probably expected. It is because of this reason, that an advantage for us has been created in the point spread, the oddsmakers are giving us a bargain on UNM (they have to in order to keep the money balanced.)

When at home this year, UNM is scoring an average 79.3 points FOR. UNM is only allowing an average 60.7 points AGAINST (including just 38% FG Against.) TCU conversely averages 64 points FOR on the road and 76 points average AGAINST. This is a delta of over +30 POINTS. New Mexico has scored 75+ in a game 11 times already this year.

Here are some other things to consider... UNM lost there last home game to 4th ranked SDSU, UNM has not lost back to back home games in Coach Steve Alfreds tenure as coach. In fact, the last time Alfred lost back to back home games was in 2003 as the coach of Iowa.The Lobos have been really tough in the Pit under Steve Alford, going 58-6 against all opponents in the Pit, but against non-conference foes, UNM has been downright nasty. With New Mexico’s 9-1 home start, The Lobos non-conference mark over the last four seasons under Alford stands at a near-perfect 36-2 in The Pit. The Lobos are 22-4 under Steve Alford in conference games in The Pit.

Since joining the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico is a perfect 8-0 SU against TCU. Those that fear New Mexico can't cover 12.5, note that in 9 games this year they have had a 20+ lead in a game 9 times (6 of those games were actually 30+ leads.) New Mexico has covered over 12.5 points 3 of the last 4 times they played home against TCU and UNM has covered 12.5 points in 5 of the last 6 games combined games versus TCU.

Lets NOT bite on a juicy looking line and tonight and instead play on the favorite New Mexico Lobo's -12.5 in what will be a total blowout!

Good Luck!

m15525 · Answer