Monday Hoops

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Monday Hoops
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:49:55 PM
1/23 Results: Butler falls, Iona falls, Valpo falls. Horizon is shaking up to be a mess outside of Cleveland State. Went 2-1, juiced.

Sides: 51-42, +0.80
Totals: 48-26, +24.00
DNP: 71-59


1/24 Notes: Georgia State had won all of their home conference games (including JMU and VCU) up until Saturday when they laid an egg against Delaware. Their lone road win came at Chattanooga who is an exact mirror image of Georgia State in terms of makeup, style, and juco talent. Other than that, they have been awful on the road including losses to McNeese State, Hampton, Georgia Southern, and UNC Wilmington. Their most recent three game road trip was a tough one with JMU, GM, and VCU back-to-back in a six day stretch. I’m not sure how it gets any easier as this will be their fifth game in 11 days, and only one day of prep with travel to Drexel. Then they have one day of prep and are back at it on Wednesday which is a lookahead to ODU. Drexel on the other hand, has taken care of business at home primarily b/c of their defense and that should help them tonight against a “juco-style” program. They don’t take chances, they stay in position and make you score out of your offense with very few transition opportunities. And it’s pretty much the same replica of defense they went against in Delaware last time out, which resulted in a home loss. In that game, they had 25 1H points, and had a late surge to end up with 62. In that game, they led with a few seconds remaining and fell at the buzzer to a three-pointer. Drexel’s defense is much better, and they bring in more length, and it’s hard to see Georgia State putting up anywhere close to that # tonight given the situational scheduling spots (too many game, too little prep time, road history, tough emotional loss) as well. They have yet to score 60+ on the road against a slow style all year in regulation. All in all, the two teams have different approaches. Georgia State plays ten players are aren’t afraid to sub and get them in. Drexel goes seven deep (no clue how CAA freshman of the year last year Fouch does not start).  I would point under, Drexel’s offense doesn’t really scare me and their main focus will be defending. I’m eager to see the Pitt/ND game and see what each coach will do. Last year’s meetings were extremely slow paced, and Pitt has double revenge. In both wins last year, Notre Dame only made 18 and 22 shots. I think the verdicts still out on Notre Dame, they haven’t looked good on the road, and I’m not sure they’ve looked all that great at home, but they’re getting it done. They get a nice break here before going to Depaul which falls under Brey having more than a week to prep as I’ve mentioned before. Sandwich game for VCU on the second of a two-game roady as they just knocked off Old Dominion and Hofstra on deck. With that said, Towson is on its way to not winning a game in the conference all year. Their defense is flat out awful. B/c of that, I’d point over, but it’s risky with this VCU defense. James Madison and Hofstra should be a pretty good game between two of my projected uppers in the CAA. Situationally, it’s not a good spot for James Madison. They’re coming off consecutive losses to ODU and George Mason, and go back on the road against a Hofstra team that only has one conference loss. There are two keys here that point to the over. One, neither team’s defensive style is built to stop the opposing offenses. Traditionally, when I look at Hofstra, the first thought that comes to mind is their defense. It’s been awesome the past few years and that’s what has kept them competitive. However, they’ve taken more of an offensive approach this year. They’ve brought in some talent to surround Jenkins and it’s helped a large amount. At the same time, it’s hurt their defense. The defense is designed and has been designed to basically wreak havoc, produce steals, and get out in transition for some easy buckets. They’re still playing the same way, but outside of Jenkins, the experience factor is proving to be a bit too much. Their 7-1 conference mark is impressive, but they have played a majority of some of the worst teams in the conference to achieve that feat. Teams like James Madison will take advantage of this defense, whereas with some of the lesser, the weakness doesn’t really show up. Second thing pointing to the over is that both teams are coming off snail pace teams. Hofstra is coming off three of the slowest teams in the country, and James Madison has been playing snails all of January. Situationally, not a good spot for James Madison. But in terms of what they want to do, this is about as good of a spot as any to get out and go. Hofstra won’t shy away, they’ve shown no ounce of it yet this year against teams who like to get up and down. Coming off George Mason and Old Dominion is a tough thing for James Madison to bounce back from, but this will be one of the easiest defensive styles to do it against. There should be a bit of motivation here too, JMU hasn’t beaten Hofstra in years and they were blown out in a home game last year. No thoughts on ODU/UNCW. Tough spot for ODU to rebound from just two days after a tough loss, but I guess the little time might help. Northeastern and William & Mary are two of the under achievers thus far this year in the CAA. Both teams defenses are the culprit, especially playing as slow as they do game in and game out. If Bill & Mary hit their three-pointers, this game goes over. If they don’t, it stays under. It’s really the only option when looking at the total. With that said, Northeastern is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three-ball. George Mason & Delaware get my vote for snooze-fest of the night. I can actually see GM struggling with Delaware’s defense which forces you to slow your offense down and work the ball around before attempting a shot. Two more underachievers in their conference, Kansas State and Baylor. I’ll sit on the sidelines for this one. Furman and Wofford could have potential to be a really good game. Both teams matchup exceptionally well, and both teams are similar in makeup. It’s probably a good thing for Morehead to get outside the OVC at this point in the season coming off of two straight losses. Now, they play someone they have never played before in Ball State, and the big problem will be familiarity...
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:50:36 PM
...Ball State has only played three top 100 teams all year (Butler, St. John’s, Valpo). In two of those games, they were blown out. They’ve now won seven straight against virtually nobody. Five of those wins came against the other five teams in the MAC West, which is far and away, the worst conference in basketball this year (323, 277, 258, 210, and 247). The second best team in the conference is Western Michigan, and they lost at Toledo. The other two wins in this horrid win streak come to SIU-E(340), and NC A&T (286). Because of this conference, and b/c of the out of conference schedule, they currently own the worst SOS in the MAC. I’m not discrediting their current run, it’s fantastic that they’ve won seven straight, but they should have won those seven, and realistically probably shouldn’t lose a game against this half of the conference the rest of the year. Their greatest offensive strength is getting to the foul line, but that again, can be attributed to the poor schedule. They’ve had a lead on 90% of their schedule, and with that comes extra foul shots at the end of games. After this game, they start the second portion of their schedule which includes the East, and we should see some slide. As for the game tonight, they should struggle to score against a physical and tough defense in Morehead State. In Ball State’s games against top 100 defenses this year, they have halves of 22, 41, 20, 35, 25, and 27. The first meeting of the year came against Butler, where they scored 20 1H points, and were routed and scored a majority of their 2H points on the Butler bench. The second meeting of the year came against St. John’s where they scored 22 in the 1H, and put in 41 in the 2H to send the game to OT (shot unreal % 2H). The third meeting came against Valpo, where the offense looked lost posting half totals of 25 and 27. Statistically, as it stands right now, Morehead State is not a top 100 defense, but they probably will be by year’s end. They have actually played some decent opponents as well. They held Florida to 61, Ohio State to 64, College of Charleston to 69. They even held Kent State to 59 (they also come from the MAC, the better half though). From a style standpoint, Ball State has yet to play a team that puts pressure on the guards and I fully expect it to be a major factor in tonight’s matchup (maybe Valpo, but not this much pressure). Both teams will be familiar enough with the opponent as they have both played teams from both conferences (Ball State played EIU twice – EIU slowed them down the second meeting and it made a huge difference). Coming into the year, Ball State returned everyone that led this half of the conference last year with three games to play and completely faltered and put up a bad showing in the conference tourney. Both the offense and defense have improved as expected, but a majority of that is b/c of the rest of the conference being terrible. In the long range of things, this game means nothing. They’re focused on the conference, and they have a big matchup on deck with Kent State. As for Morehead State, their offense has sort of taken a nose dive. They’re coming off two extremely slow games in EIU and EKU, and they scored 40 and 49 in those two matchups. Their defense however, did hold their opponent under 60 in both games, and it’s going to be the focus of this play tonight. Morehead State had won 24 in a row at home before the loss Saturday, I should get their best effort tonight and the defensive pressure should tell the story of the game. I’m playing to the Siena/Rider over the total. Neither team plays defense, and Siena could get any shot they wanted in the first meeting which was lined at 145.5 but stayed under due to a poor 2H from Rider. Siena’s coming home after a snail of a national televised game and the Rider offense has been unstoppable as of late aside from the poor outing against top 15 defense in the country in Fairfield. Not really much more to it, both teams should smell 70’s. I like Montana State, but not interested in backing a horrid road defense with rival on deck.

Bets
Morehead State +2 (3 Units)
James Madison +1.5 (2 Unit)
James Madison/Hofstra Over 141 (2 Units)
Rider/Siena Over 142.5 (2 Units)

DNP: Georgia State/Drexel Under 123.5, George Mason/Delaware Under 129.5

GL
tidefan07 PM tidefan07
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:52:37 PM
BOL tonight!
jrhdgolf9 PM jrhdgolf9
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:53:22 PM
Thanks Nropp, good luck to ya
Sweetlicker PM Sweetlicker
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:54:40 PM
BOL tonight!
TheLiability PM TheLiability
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:55:35 PM
BOL
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:57:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jhawk23:

Neil

  You're a great analyst for cball.  I don't use the word capper b/c I think you're similar to a Bilas who breaks down teams and makes decisions from there.  I'm a huge cball fan as well, and I don't follow the smaller schools as much as you, I still love cball no matter who's playing and will always tune in and be interested if it's on tv.
  
That being said, when you analyze the games, it seems like a lot of the recent losses have been road dogs.  I think home court in cball may be the most advantageous in any sports just b/c of the closeness of the crowd and the familiarity of the rims.  When you're analyzing a game, what do you factor into the home court?  I know to Vegas it's worth 3 points, but to me, I feel like a -1 at home is more like a -4.

Also, I know you typically don't like the "bigger" games, but tomorrow I feel there's some value in the KSU-Baylor game as well as the over in the Pitt-ND game.  I'm a Big 12 guy and have scene a lot of KSU & Baylor games. KSU is a tough team to analyze, talent is there, minus a pg, which is killing them.  They grind it out,  play physical, but have struggled to finish games.  Baylor has a similar makeup, they love to dribble drive, have a hard time finishing and don't shoot ft's well.  Both have underachieved immensely, but I feel like KSU will never turn the corner this year until they find a pg.  I feel like Baylor will play them close, it'll be a lower scoring game, unless both teams hit ft's.  5.5 is a lot for KSU, I feel like Baylor and the under is a good angle, with the under moreso.  As far as ND Pitt, feel like it'll be a high scoring game, and Pitt has been incredibly impressive to this point.  I'm a KU homer, but Pitt looks like the #1 team in the nation to me.  Thanks for all your analysis

As for homecourt, it comes into play from a value standpoint, and the lines are usually built with the homecourt included. For example, a team that's -1 at home, the -3 is included, which essentially means the other team is better. I don't really place a # on homecourt. Obviously, it's something I look at, and I don't keep track of road/home records I invest in, but thanks for the advice. 

As for Pitt, I agree, I believe they're the best team in the country.

As for Baylor/KST, think they've both under achieved. If Kansas State doesn't show something tonight, I'm not sure they ever will this year. Both teams awfully similar. 
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 1/24/2011 1:58:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thornridge1972:

neil,

Need some advice. Is tonite the night that coach Martin and his disappointing squad take out their frustrations at home on a porly coached Baylor team? Your thoughts?


If I had to choose a side, I'd take Martin. Although, flipping a coin at this point may be the better option with two teams this similar.
docircho PM docircho
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:01:09 PM
wizkid30 PM wizkid30
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:09:45 PM

GL Nropp

NickelCity PM NickelCity
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:16:09 PM
nropp, does C. Jackson being listed as questionable effect your opinion of the O/U in Rider/Siena? Also, were do you see the Kansas/Colorado line opening up at for tomorrow?
ccat1133 PM ccat1133
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:29:54 PM
I bet Kansas is favored by around 9 tomorrow. 
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:52:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NickelCity:

nropp, does C. Jackson being listed as questionable effect your opinion of the O/U in Rider/Siena? Also, were do you see the Kansas/Colorado line opening up at for tomorrow?

From the looks of it, he won't play. It doesn't really effect the total much. Yes, his scoring will be missed, but they have still played at this pace without him for six games and have put up some points in doing so.

As for Kansas, probably a -9 or -10. Colorado's loss at Oklahoma might make it a bit bigger. If I remember correctly, Colorado almost beat them at their place last year.
Sunshine7 PM Sunshine7
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Posted: 1/24/2011 2:52:53 PM
I'm thinking MHS & JM may be stronger ML plays.. Good Luck. 
ashlandarrows22 PM ashlandarrows22
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Posted: 1/24/2011 3:01:18 PM
neil..do you ever use kenpom when you analzye games??  they have ball state ranked 25 spots higer than morehead state...or do you not even take into account the  kenpom ratings??
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 1/24/2011 3:06:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ashlandarrows22:

neil..do you ever use kenpom when you analzye games??  they have ball state ranked 25 spots higer than morehead state...or do you not even take into account the  kenpom ratings??

Don't really use the overall power ratings. If Morehead doesn't lose both of their previous games, then they have a higher rating, and so forth...

Eastern Illinois (278) just beat Morehead (145) and Murray State (142). Then they came out and lost to Tenny Martin (309).
EVANTORR PM EVANTORR
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Posted: 1/24/2011 3:19:56 PM
why no play on furman? 
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 1/24/2011 3:24:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EVANTORR:

why no play on furman? 

I think they hold value, but they haven't played good on the road against good competition, and I can't go against Wofford as I think they're the most complete team in the conference. They've finally put a nice stretch together here.
Handicapper33 PM Handicapper33
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Posted: 1/24/2011 3:38:15 PM

nropp,

Are you expecting a 1 pt win by Hofstra since JM hasnt beaten them going back at least 10 games. I know they play some tight games but Hofstra also blows them out every other year. Also on the Siena game, every major trend in the Siena matchup is pointing towards the under. Both have terrible defenses but they also have terrible offenses. I just don't see how you can take a JM team that hasnt beat Hofstra in years but I guess anyone is due.

AgainstDaConsen PM AgainstDaConsen
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Posted: 1/24/2011 3:55:17 PM

WILL BE HAMMERING MOREHEAD ST TONIGHT.

Already in at +2, hoping to get another half point as the day goes on...

 

 

Do you see value in Northeastern -4.5, i know they are struggling but this seems like a winnable game for them.  I know you like Bill and Mary if they hit the three. I am just asking do you see value in -4.5??

Frank the Bank PM Frank the Bank
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Posted: 1/24/2011 4:40:14 PM

Can't ND hang in there plus 10.5?  Is Pitt that good?  Are they that bad?

jimmyg2727 PM jimmyg2727
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Posted: 1/24/2011 5:30:22 PM
Goodluck Nropp..I like Morehead tonight!!
mojator PM mojator
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Posted: 1/24/2011 5:35:45 PM
jroach017 PM jroach017
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Posted: 1/24/2011 5:39:35 PM
Well played sir, digging all these tonight...was leaning Hofstra though. Now, I think I'll lay off that one. GL  
vanillagq PM vanillagq
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Posted: 1/24/2011 5:54:14 PM
Hey N..not saying im right but since i have told you..90% of the +2 road teams still been covering ... we are trying to beat vegas so we have to think like them.....definitely backing your more head bet
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