KP has it at 14. I think we will see something like that 13-15 range. UNLV got back in the win column with a squeaker against NM after a bad loss at home to CSU. Suffice it to say, they are not playing well right now but might get the cure here in a WY team that is not healthy, not playing well, and just getting trounced at home and away in conference since the NM upset, losing by an average of 19 to the bottom half of the MWC (AF/UT/TCU). I am not comfortable laying a huge number on the road in general, but this looks like a 20 pt win for UNLV to me.
Wednesday
Air Force at CSU
KP says CSU -7. CSU coming off a tough loss at home vs BYU. I think CSU thought they had a chance there and I am would not be surprised to see a bit of a letdown here. AF, on the other hand, rolled through WY like they didn't show up after getting a few confidence building close losses vs the upper echelon of the MWC. In addition, AF is a bad matchup for CSU. They get to the line and shoot the three well, CSU doesn't defend that. CSU, as do all teams vs AF, will have a distinct advantage in rebounds. However, you have to consider that AF has padded their stats against a pretty poor schedule. The line floated out for the BYU/SCU game show that linesmakers have some respect for CSU. Might we get more than 7? I would probably play anything above 6.5 (bought to 7).
TCU at NM
KP says NM -13. Both teams have lost three in a row. NM had to be both pleased and wicked disappointed that they lost to UNLV. Which is it mostly? I have not been trusting my read on this team and I should have been lately. I think their inner confidence is shaken. TCU's loss to a rejuvenated Utah team at home must have come as something of a shock. Like TCU here for the following reasons: I think NM doubts itself and 13 is a lot to cover when you are not really in the proper mindset. TCU will see this as a winnable game after N lost to WY and Utah and will come ready to give their best effort. I would play the dog at anything above 11. Could I also see NM getting to a lead and rolling in the poti - sure, but I like my chances with the points and the good guard play of TCU.
0
MWC Weekday games 1-25-1/26
Tuesday:
UNLV at Wyoming
KP has it at 14. I think we will see something like that 13-15 range. UNLV got back in the win column with a squeaker against NM after a bad loss at home to CSU. Suffice it to say, they are not playing well right now but might get the cure here in a WY team that is not healthy, not playing well, and just getting trounced at home and away in conference since the NM upset, losing by an average of 19 to the bottom half of the MWC (AF/UT/TCU). I am not comfortable laying a huge number on the road in general, but this looks like a 20 pt win for UNLV to me.
Wednesday
Air Force at CSU
KP says CSU -7. CSU coming off a tough loss at home vs BYU. I think CSU thought they had a chance there and I am would not be surprised to see a bit of a letdown here. AF, on the other hand, rolled through WY like they didn't show up after getting a few confidence building close losses vs the upper echelon of the MWC. In addition, AF is a bad matchup for CSU. They get to the line and shoot the three well, CSU doesn't defend that. CSU, as do all teams vs AF, will have a distinct advantage in rebounds. However, you have to consider that AF has padded their stats against a pretty poor schedule. The line floated out for the BYU/SCU game show that linesmakers have some respect for CSU. Might we get more than 7? I would probably play anything above 6.5 (bought to 7).
TCU at NM
KP says NM -13. Both teams have lost three in a row. NM had to be both pleased and wicked disappointed that they lost to UNLV. Which is it mostly? I have not been trusting my read on this team and I should have been lately. I think their inner confidence is shaken. TCU's loss to a rejuvenated Utah team at home must have come as something of a shock. Like TCU here for the following reasons: I think NM doubts itself and 13 is a lot to cover when you are not really in the proper mindset. TCU will see this as a winnable game after N lost to WY and Utah and will come ready to give their best effort. I would play the dog at anything above 11. Could I also see NM getting to a lead and rolling in the poti - sure, but I like my chances with the points and the good guard play of TCU.
I am so looking forward to this game, and I am from the east coast and a Uconn fan...
San Diego State and BYU
KP has this at BYU-5. I don't think we will see that. I think it will be more like 3.5 as they won't need to set to high a number on San Diego State to get action as they will have the higher ranking, but not by much (6 to 9 as of this writing) BYU beat SDS twice last season, by 2 on the road and by 14 at home. BYU is a clone of last years team - top 20 tempo, never turn the ball over, defend their own glass. They do not, as a whole, shoot as well as they did last year, but they have played a better SOS this year. San Diego State, on the other hand, is better. They have cut down their turnovers dramatically as Gay has excelled at the point, Leonard is a Soph now, and everyone else is a year more experienced. Last year when they got into a close game at the end it seemed like they pressed and didn't stay with what got them there - the rebounding. Frankly, they panicked. They also have more range this year. last year they shot under 32% from beyond the arc, this year a respectable 33.5%. Still, this game will come down to number of shots/possessions. Turnovers vs rebounds. Last year BYU got six more possessions at home in the 14 pt win, being virtually equal in rebounds and forcing 16 TO to 8. AT SDS, a 2 point win for BYU, BYU had to shoot extremely well to win as SDS won TO battle by one, and had 7 more possessions.
Something will have to give in this game with the rebounding. Here is why I would take anything over four and San Diego State - they are better than last year and have more POISE which will allow them to potentially win a game like this, in a place like this (and I would never bet this without thinking I had a chance to win outright). BYU will have to shoot really well against this great D to win, as I expect SDS to have more possessions due to more Off boards, roughly equal TO's. Does it concern me that SDS has started so slow, and that they have had a week off - may be rusty? Can't not. However, when tey have had tough games they have come out of th agte just fine (zags, St. mary's UNLV and NM) KP only gives SDS a 30% chance to win this game. KP tends to overrate BYU every year(ranked 10 and 21 L2, but 1-2 in NCAA tourney) They tend to lose to long athletic teams that can play in the paint like Texas A+M. Sound like anyone we know?
Could just be a great game to watch. BYU has a lot going for it - they are playing well, have the best player on the court, are at home and are confident. Just think the double revenge, healthy SDS squad gets the better of them and pulls the upset.
0
I am so looking forward to this game, and I am from the east coast and a Uconn fan...
San Diego State and BYU
KP has this at BYU-5. I don't think we will see that. I think it will be more like 3.5 as they won't need to set to high a number on San Diego State to get action as they will have the higher ranking, but not by much (6 to 9 as of this writing) BYU beat SDS twice last season, by 2 on the road and by 14 at home. BYU is a clone of last years team - top 20 tempo, never turn the ball over, defend their own glass. They do not, as a whole, shoot as well as they did last year, but they have played a better SOS this year. San Diego State, on the other hand, is better. They have cut down their turnovers dramatically as Gay has excelled at the point, Leonard is a Soph now, and everyone else is a year more experienced. Last year when they got into a close game at the end it seemed like they pressed and didn't stay with what got them there - the rebounding. Frankly, they panicked. They also have more range this year. last year they shot under 32% from beyond the arc, this year a respectable 33.5%. Still, this game will come down to number of shots/possessions. Turnovers vs rebounds. Last year BYU got six more possessions at home in the 14 pt win, being virtually equal in rebounds and forcing 16 TO to 8. AT SDS, a 2 point win for BYU, BYU had to shoot extremely well to win as SDS won TO battle by one, and had 7 more possessions.
Something will have to give in this game with the rebounding. Here is why I would take anything over four and San Diego State - they are better than last year and have more POISE which will allow them to potentially win a game like this, in a place like this (and I would never bet this without thinking I had a chance to win outright). BYU will have to shoot really well against this great D to win, as I expect SDS to have more possessions due to more Off boards, roughly equal TO's. Does it concern me that SDS has started so slow, and that they have had a week off - may be rusty? Can't not. However, when tey have had tough games they have come out of th agte just fine (zags, St. mary's UNLV and NM) KP only gives SDS a 30% chance to win this game. KP tends to overrate BYU every year(ranked 10 and 21 L2, but 1-2 in NCAA tourney) They tend to lose to long athletic teams that can play in the paint like Texas A+M. Sound like anyone we know?
Could just be a great game to watch. BYU has a lot going for it - they are playing well, have the best player on the court, are at home and are confident. Just think the double revenge, healthy SDS squad gets the better of them and pulls the upset.
Great stuff man! The athletic team that SDSU has will affect BYU somewhat and I think they can dominate the glass. I remember in the NCAA tournament last year how much BYU got abused by Kansas St on the glass. That one game always gives me pause when they face a strong, athletic team. Probably stupid but that is how I think. If BYU gets balanced scoring and is knocking the three then the place will be rocking and SDSU could get shot out of the building. But I'm with you on SDSU if the line is 5 or so.
0
Great stuff man! The athletic team that SDSU has will affect BYU somewhat and I think they can dominate the glass. I remember in the NCAA tournament last year how much BYU got abused by Kansas St on the glass. That one game always gives me pause when they face a strong, athletic team. Probably stupid but that is how I think. If BYU gets balanced scoring and is knocking the three then the place will be rocking and SDSU could get shot out of the building. But I'm with you on SDSU if the line is 5 or so.
KP has -3. Baylor with a huge matchup advantage, both teams turn the ball over too much but Kst commits fouls and Baylor draws them. 3pt shooting is another adv. SOS major in favor of Kst, who needs a win after dropping L2 away games. Baylor, massively underperforming still, has only beaten Texas tech on the road. Too much at stake here for Kst to bet agaiunst them and the line is so inflated that think Kst is the right side. I am staying away.
Ball St. Save the rebounding edge to Morehead this looks too good to be true - KP has this at -6. Usually is to goods to be true - 65% on Ball st. Looks like the right side to me but I am staying away.
Pitt-11. ND has been awful on the road, Pitt is great. Good spot for Pitt to continue to roll. But I can't lay that much against a ND team that can and likes to hit threes, and if Pitt has a weakness....maybe it is just cuz everyone is behind but I watched the Duquesne game...
Delaware +7. Buddy of mine says if I bet on his Blue Hens I must have a real gambling problem. But I like the Blue hens at home where they have beaten Old Dominion, and only loss to Penn tight after staying with Nova (can you say let down?!) In Comes a hot Mason team off of two BIG wins against Drexel and Jmad on the road by 2. Now the travel to tiny Carpenter Center to play a mid-week tilt against a .500 DE team. And the line is only 7! KP has it at 10, and everything screams take Mason and lay the points. Gotta go the other way. DE won't be intimidated, have same season revenge, real flat spot after emotional tough bug games for Mason.
Delaware +7 1.5u
0
Monday Notes and Play(s):
Baylor at Kst -5
KP has -3. Baylor with a huge matchup advantage, both teams turn the ball over too much but Kst commits fouls and Baylor draws them. 3pt shooting is another adv. SOS major in favor of Kst, who needs a win after dropping L2 away games. Baylor, massively underperforming still, has only beaten Texas tech on the road. Too much at stake here for Kst to bet agaiunst them and the line is so inflated that think Kst is the right side. I am staying away.
Ball St. Save the rebounding edge to Morehead this looks too good to be true - KP has this at -6. Usually is to goods to be true - 65% on Ball st. Looks like the right side to me but I am staying away.
Pitt-11. ND has been awful on the road, Pitt is great. Good spot for Pitt to continue to roll. But I can't lay that much against a ND team that can and likes to hit threes, and if Pitt has a weakness....maybe it is just cuz everyone is behind but I watched the Duquesne game...
Delaware +7. Buddy of mine says if I bet on his Blue Hens I must have a real gambling problem. But I like the Blue hens at home where they have beaten Old Dominion, and only loss to Penn tight after staying with Nova (can you say let down?!) In Comes a hot Mason team off of two BIG wins against Drexel and Jmad on the road by 2. Now the travel to tiny Carpenter Center to play a mid-week tilt against a .500 DE team. And the line is only 7! KP has it at 10, and everything screams take Mason and lay the points. Gotta go the other way. DE won't be intimidated, have same season revenge, real flat spot after emotional tough bug games for Mason.
Well, Delaware was a great pick - not. Still, UD got out rebounded by 4 (1Offensive), and turned it over 3 more times. I would have taken those numbers at the start. It is the 30% from the floor, and 26% from behind the arc that can't happen if you want to cover. And NO, we don't always lose cuz the team shoots badly - sometimes we misread the game and the wrong team gets the majority of the boards and TO (See Dayton/Umass). Moving on.
See my write-up above. UNLV will blow someone out very soon. Might as well be tonight. Trying to be ahead of the curve. The 75% on WY makes me feel like I may be tonight.
UNLV -12.5 2u
Other leans/plays
GA-2 - looks fine. Take the home team, equal enough squads.
KS - 7.5 - such a trappy line - should be DD, why only 7.5 - just cuz Kansas lost to a good Texas team? KP has this onbe at 11 and While that generally worries me, this time I take the bait for a unit. I like CO, they are much improvced but their defense will crumble against Kansas. They allow over 1pt/per possession, there SOS is crap, and the public is all over Colorado.
MARQ-3.5, unranked laying pts to ranked but an awful matchup for marquette on paper, while neither team protects their own glass against very good offensive rebounding teams.
I caved in and played
Kansas -7.5 1u
breaking all my rules.
Probably gonna be it for tonight. Love the MWC games tomorrow.
0
Well, Delaware was a great pick - not. Still, UD got out rebounded by 4 (1Offensive), and turned it over 3 more times. I would have taken those numbers at the start. It is the 30% from the floor, and 26% from behind the arc that can't happen if you want to cover. And NO, we don't always lose cuz the team shoots badly - sometimes we misread the game and the wrong team gets the majority of the boards and TO (See Dayton/Umass). Moving on.
See my write-up above. UNLV will blow someone out very soon. Might as well be tonight. Trying to be ahead of the curve. The 75% on WY makes me feel like I may be tonight.
UNLV -12.5 2u
Other leans/plays
GA-2 - looks fine. Take the home team, equal enough squads.
KS - 7.5 - such a trappy line - should be DD, why only 7.5 - just cuz Kansas lost to a good Texas team? KP has this onbe at 11 and While that generally worries me, this time I take the bait for a unit. I like CO, they are much improvced but their defense will crumble against Kansas. They allow over 1pt/per possession, there SOS is crap, and the public is all over Colorado.
MARQ-3.5, unranked laying pts to ranked but an awful matchup for marquette on paper, while neither team protects their own glass against very good offensive rebounding teams.
I caved in and played
Kansas -7.5 1u
breaking all my rules.
Probably gonna be it for tonight. Love the MWC games tomorrow.
Some great match ups tonight. I think UCONN will come back to earth sooner or later. They are not a top 10 team in my eyes. They could be in trouble tonight. BOL
0
Some great match ups tonight. I think UCONN will come back to earth sooner or later. They are not a top 10 team in my eyes. They could be in trouble tonight. BOL
I had Colorado as an initial lean, and I see a ton of people on it. I can totally see why but the loss, coupled with this matchup - the only teams to come close to KS are pretty elite defenses. No defensive efficiency like Co has even come close. So I had to switch or no play.
0
I had Colorado as an initial lean, and I see a ton of people on it. I can totally see why but the loss, coupled with this matchup - the only teams to come close to KS are pretty elite defenses. No defensive efficiency like Co has even come close. So I had to switch or no play.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
. But I like the Blue hens at home where they have beaten Old Dominion, and only loss to Penn tight after staying with Nova (can you say let down?!) In Comes a hot Mason team off of two BIG wins against Drexel and Jmad on the road by 2. Now the travel to tiny Carpenter Center to play a mid-week tilt against a .500 DE team. And the line is only 7! KP has it at 10, and everything screams take Mason and lay the points. Gotta go the other way. DE won't be intimidated, have same season revenge, real flat spot after emotional tough bug games for Mason.
TCU +12 2.5u
Hot Forum Topics
