All lines are KP predictions (mine in parentheses)
Utah at WY -2 (pk due to injuries)
Utah is on a massive 7 game losing streak punctuated by a 25 pt dismantling by in state rival BYU, AT HOME. WY beat NM at home then went on the road shorthanded and got crushed by an average TCU team. Who is playing for WY. The matchup favors a healthy WY team but 1. How healthy will they be: Muojeke has been a major contributor but is OUT for the year, again. Still, WY could absorb that as he has been only a part time guy this year, but not Luster and Thiam. If Luster and Thiam don't play... 2. Utah must realize this is their best chance to get a win til Feb 5. The O'Brien kid is finally coming along. ut man, they just can't shoot at all.
Tough game - too many unknowns. El passo.
SDS AT NM +2 (+4 premium paid to take 18-0 SDS)
Hard to bet against NM at home, especially catching points. However, they couldn't put away CSU, allowing them to get back in the game and cut the lead to one before hitting a three and winning the game on the line. Still, watching that game made me think that there is something missing from this years Lobo squad and it is the attitude of the guys who left. NM looked fearless last year - downing BYU at home and Away, SDS at home, UNLV in Vegas, running the table after a loss to UNLV Jan 9. While their defense appears to have improved, their rebounding has declined, and their offense is sputtering - relying on FT's. Seems wicked square to play SDS after a win vs UNLV, giving points in NM. Seems really square. Still, SDS has AF next, then a week to prepare for BYU - they did lose to NM last year and will take this game seriously. This is simply not a good matchup for NM. Frankly, I don't think they have what it takes to beat this SDS team, even at home. fact is, I think plenty will jump on MM at home with pts to make this less square...
WAC
TCU at CSU -8 (-8)
CSU was right there with NM at the pit - that loss can be attributed to poor FT % - they could have had a 5 pt lead with under two minutes had they shot their average. But they played well. Big mismatch I have been waiting for with TCU being a smallish guard heavy team, and CSU having two good big men. If TCU hits those threes, they will cover. But on the road I love fading jumpshooting teams. TCU does not have a sense of urgency and CSU does. Rams need this W, and roll here.
UNLV at AF +11 (+12 UNLV premium)
AF has had a week to prepare. AF has held its own this year but against a super weak schedule. They got BYU in a bad spot and hung close. Now they get a pissed off UNLV team who can run them. It's a bad spot for AF, even though some numbers say that AF will score. Take UNLV.
All lines are KP predictions (mine in parentheses)
Utah at WY -2 (pk due to injuries)
Utah is on a massive 7 game losing streak punctuated by a 25 pt dismantling by in state rival BYU, AT HOME. WY beat NM at home then went on the road shorthanded and got crushed by an average TCU team. Who is playing for WY. The matchup favors a healthy WY team but 1. How healthy will they be: Muojeke has been a major contributor but is OUT for the year, again. Still, WY could absorb that as he has been only a part time guy this year, but not Luster and Thiam. If Luster and Thiam don't play... 2. Utah must realize this is their best chance to get a win til Feb 5. The O'Brien kid is finally coming along. ut man, they just can't shoot at all.
Tough game - too many unknowns. El passo.
SDS AT NM +2 (+4 premium paid to take 18-0 SDS)
Hard to bet against NM at home, especially catching points. However, they couldn't put away CSU, allowing them to get back in the game and cut the lead to one before hitting a three and winning the game on the line. Still, watching that game made me think that there is something missing from this years Lobo squad and it is the attitude of the guys who left. NM looked fearless last year - downing BYU at home and Away, SDS at home, UNLV in Vegas, running the table after a loss to UNLV Jan 9. While their defense appears to have improved, their rebounding has declined, and their offense is sputtering - relying on FT's. Seems wicked square to play SDS after a win vs UNLV, giving points in NM. Seems really square. Still, SDS has AF next, then a week to prepare for BYU - they did lose to NM last year and will take this game seriously. This is simply not a good matchup for NM. Frankly, I don't think they have what it takes to beat this SDS team, even at home. fact is, I think plenty will jump on MM at home with pts to make this less square...
WAC
TCU at CSU -8 (-8)
CSU was right there with NM at the pit - that loss can be attributed to poor FT % - they could have had a 5 pt lead with under two minutes had they shot their average. But they played well. Big mismatch I have been waiting for with TCU being a smallish guard heavy team, and CSU having two good big men. If TCU hits those threes, they will cover. But on the road I love fading jumpshooting teams. TCU does not have a sense of urgency and CSU does. Rams need this W, and roll here.
UNLV at AF +11 (+12 UNLV premium)
AF has had a week to prepare. AF has held its own this year but against a super weak schedule. They got BYU in a bad spot and hung close. Now they get a pissed off UNLV team who can run them. It's a bad spot for AF, even though some numbers say that AF will score. Take UNLV.
Don't know why that WAC is in there but I am looking at some WAC games as I think I have a decent feel for BSU, NMST, UTST, and Fresno. Gotta read more before I go there...
Don't know why that WAC is in there but I am looking at some WAC games as I think I have a decent feel for BSU, NMST, UTST, and Fresno. Gotta read more before I go there...
wisc ml - 66% system, single digit loser on road, wins at home.
nc state - FSU letdown
Drexel game is sandwich - play W+M
Tulane !!! Why is this line like this? UCF !!! DITTO?
PSU , 19 is a lot to cover in 62 possessions -
Baylor !!! - explain IA State, the SOS is poor, fine, but who are these guys?
NIA ML - 2 pt lose at Sill,
NM st, will get to the line over and over again = 40 trips vs Hawaii. SJS worse at allowing FT attempts.
UC irv - hungrier.
BSU ml or tease - Nevada still hasn't won on the road. BSU won't be shaken by good effort vs Ut State - they played with them - cut it to 2. BSU will be hungry, but will they cover the big number?
ut state - Don't know if I like this at -10, might be a good tease/ml play
wisc ml - 66% system, single digit loser on road, wins at home.
nc state - FSU letdown
Drexel game is sandwich - play W+M
Tulane !!! Why is this line like this? UCF !!! DITTO?
PSU , 19 is a lot to cover in 62 possessions -
Baylor !!! - explain IA State, the SOS is poor, fine, but who are these guys?
NIA ML - 2 pt lose at Sill,
NM st, will get to the line over and over again = 40 trips vs Hawaii. SJS worse at allowing FT attempts.
UC irv - hungrier.
BSU ml or tease - Nevada still hasn't won on the road. BSU won't be shaken by good effort vs Ut State - they played with them - cut it to 2. BSU will be hungry, but will they cover the big number?
ut state - Don't know if I like this at -10, might be a good tease/ml play
I'm looking at UConn -9.5@ DePaul. I hate laying heavy chalk on the road especially when UConn has Nova coming up in 2 days. However, DePaul is shit and UConn has had 4 days rest and I don't see them with the look ahead here.
I'm looking at UConn -9.5@ DePaul. I hate laying heavy chalk on the road especially when UConn has Nova coming up in 2 days. However, DePaul is shit and UConn has had 4 days rest and I don't see them with the look ahead here.
San Diego State -1 2.5u (bad spot, much better team) NC State +8 .5u (great spot, much worse team)
Still looking for any definitive info on Luster and Thiam in the WY/UTAH game - line movement suggests they play. Gotta lean with Sstick here with Utah though.
San Diego State -1 2.5u (bad spot, much better team) NC State +8 .5u (great spot, much worse team)
Still looking for any definitive info on Luster and Thiam in the WY/UTAH game - line movement suggests they play. Gotta lean with Sstick here with Utah though.
Love San Francisco ML v. San Diego, Bandos; San Diego has played a brutal schedule which has taught them how to lose. USF has played tough last six, showing up against SDSU, Colorado St. and Santa Clara. USF has won three straight against cup-cake opposition--but they've won. San Diego has seen nothing but heartache against top-flight competition and has just maybe knocked off for the year.
Love San Francisco ML v. San Diego, Bandos; San Diego has played a brutal schedule which has taught them how to lose. USF has played tough last six, showing up against SDSU, Colorado St. and Santa Clara. USF has won three straight against cup-cake opposition--but they've won. San Diego has seen nothing but heartache against top-flight competition and has just maybe knocked off for the year.
For the record, UCF should destroy smiss but I will not bet into that situation, but with the majority on Smiss, I wonder if it still applies (ranked team getting pts on the road...)
For the record, UCF should destroy smiss but I will not bet into that situation, but with the majority on Smiss, I wonder if it still applies (ranked team getting pts on the road...)
maybe strength of sked has something to do with it...I see no injuries...I can only believe that SD has had ferocious SOS and book sees this as numbers for SD.
maybe strength of sked has something to do with it...I see no injuries...I can only believe that SD has had ferocious SOS and book sees this as numbers for SD.
Might be my first winning Saturday in a while - the huge card has huge opportunities but also tends to make me over extend. Not yesterday - I got to watch almost every game I was involved in and stayed more disciplined.
What did we learn: 1. Situational angles are big, but no guarantee. NC State and Seton Hall lost when their opps were in Awful spots. W+M won. Ranked team on the road getting points/pk: UCF lost, but SDS and GA won.
2. Large lines and low tempo = dog cover (See PSU)
3. Rematches truly allow opportunity. See my DD thread for more info. Fact is, it is just as valuable in showing us what plays to avoid as to play. Loyola MD, Niowa have already cashed.
Might be my first winning Saturday in a while - the huge card has huge opportunities but also tends to make me over extend. Not yesterday - I got to watch almost every game I was involved in and stayed more disciplined.
What did we learn: 1. Situational angles are big, but no guarantee. NC State and Seton Hall lost when their opps were in Awful spots. W+M won. Ranked team on the road getting points/pk: UCF lost, but SDS and GA won.
2. Large lines and low tempo = dog cover (See PSU)
3. Rematches truly allow opportunity. See my DD thread for more info. Fact is, it is just as valuable in showing us what plays to avoid as to play. Loyola MD, Niowa have already cashed.
USF - providence seems in disarray. I paid the price in their last game as they got blasted by WV. Both teams are 0-5 in BE play. Not a great matchup for USF but this is their chance to get a win.
Notre Dame ml: Ok we have a 15 pt win in SBend - 50% of the time the other team wins the rematch. But St. John's is actually the favorite, which means that I get the better team (ND) who has a serious matchup advantage, at plus money.
USF - providence seems in disarray. I paid the price in their last game as they got blasted by WV. Both teams are 0-5 in BE play. Not a great matchup for USF but this is their chance to get a win.
Notre Dame ml: Ok we have a 15 pt win in SBend - 50% of the time the other team wins the rematch. But St. John's is actually the favorite, which means that I get the better team (ND) who has a serious matchup advantage, at plus money.
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