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[College Basketball] Topic: Teams that won by DD first meeting losing the next?.. |
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BandosWB |
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#1 Posted: 1/14/2011 4:09:13 PM
Teams that win by 10-19 pts, lose OUTRIGHT the next meeting around 50% of the time.
The reason I bring this up now is we have just such a scenario. Fairfield beat Loyola MD by 10 this season. Now they are playing again.
Some questions that were raised as I looked at this, and I do not know the answers:
1. How many of these instances saw a DOG win by 10-19, then lose the next time. This would make sense as the fav would likely win the next but seems to be a SMALL number of instances.
2. How many were underdogs the second time around (kind of related to point 1).
3. Has this held true over several years? Or was it a one year outlier.
The angle here is the ability to hit the dog ML 50% of the time which is obviously a winning proposition.
I may try to TRACK this angle this year to see how it does. If anyone has any additional input or information - please do share.
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KineProfessor |
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#2 Posted: 1/14/2011 4:26:26 PM
Fortunately, there are plenty of rematches in the sport, so one can
use real data to determine how much a head-to-head victory is a true
verdict of superiority. Last season, there were 1,049 regular-season
conference games which were a rematch of an earlier game. The winners of
the initial game won 61.1% of the rematches. Not exactly a figure that
inspires confidence that the outcome of a single game is useful to
compare two teams. Keep that in mind as you make arguments about one
team being better than another.
We should break this down further, though. Because we’re only looking
at conference regular-season games in this sample, location is very
important. For instance if the victor of the initial game was the road
team, it won the rematch 80.2% of the time. This shouldn’t be surprising
because it’s more difficult to win on the road and the rematch would be
an easier game for the winner since it would occur at home.
The flip side is more instructive. When the home team was the winner
of the first game, they were a collective 309-326 in the rematch. That’s
right, a home winner is more likely to lose a rematch than win it. It
gets better, though. A home team winning the first game by single-digits
went a collective 96-195, winning 33.0% of the time. Considering that
overall, road teams win conference games about 38% of the time, close
home winners are really not proving their superiority at all.
Wait, there’s more. Home teams that won by one or two points were 16-52 in the rematches, winning just 23.5% of the time.
Most fans like to think the results of a close game as just because
teams that emerge victorious show grittiness, heart, and toughness. But
those teams were almost certain losers when they faced the same team on
the road. What happened to the grittiness then? To me, there’s no
greater statement to the influence of luck in the outcome of a close
game than the struggles of close home winners in a road game against the
same team.
If you still doubt, consider this: The average margin for the winners
of the first game in those cases was +1.6 points. The average margin
for those teams in the rematch was -6.9, almost exactly double what many
studies have shown to be typical home court advantage. Was there
anything more going on for the close home winners than just simply being
at home? It doesn’t appear that way.
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BandosWB |
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#3 Posted: 1/14/2011 4:51:58 PM
Research I did for College Basketball Prospectus 2008-09 showed that a
team that beats an opponent at home by 10-19 points ends up losing the
re-match (presumably on the road, no?) against the same opponent about half the time. Now, think about
this. You should quickly realize that even a dominant home win in
isolation provides very little information. Sure, if Missouri beats Iowa
State at home by double-digits this January, you are going to feel like
they have better than a 50/50 shot of winning the rematch in Ames. But
that judgment has much more to do with the information you have about
the other games each team has played.
So that answers one question - this is about HOME teams winning by 10-19, the losing on the road 50% of the time.
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BandosWB |
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#4 Posted: 1/14/2011 4:53:41 PM
Thanks Kine for sharing this - adds another element. The above quote looks pretty significant - maybe those same season revenge angle bettors are on to something...
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Quad_17 |
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#5 Posted: 1/14/2011 5:36:49 PM
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BandosWB |
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#6 Posted: 1/14/2011 7:25:24 PM
1/14 Loyola MD +195
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KktdocT |
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#7 Posted: 1/14/2011 8:03:35 PM |
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BandosWB |
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#8 Posted: 1/14/2011 9:48:45 PM
Glad I actually played it.
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Wizerguy |
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#9 Posted: 1/14/2011 10:26:49 PM Been following that angle for years in CBB and NFL. 
Solid angle in both sports..
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beatthelocal |
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#10 Posted: 1/15/2011 10:07:40 AM |
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BandosWB |
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#11 Posted: 1/16/2011 12:31:20 AM
Sunday:
Notre dame beat St. John's by 15 last week. Now ND goes to NY - and the Johnnies opened at -2. I was hoping that we would not have to lay pts with this and that we would consistently be in the +ml land, but oh well. Will wait to see if the line moves but for tracking
St John's ML (-130?)
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billywaddy |
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#12 Posted: 1/16/2011 9:52:16 AM |
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BandosWB |
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#13 Posted: 1/16/2011 10:21:15 AM
Notre Dame at St. John's -3
Don't want to be blind here, IF this game is a toss-up, why would I want to pay -130? In addition to the DD win scenario, we also have the unranked laying pts to the ranked which everyone seems to love but as I put in my weekend thread - was not a winner yesterday. Nothing should be played blindly in other words. I like the Johnnies - they are a veteran squad and would like to back them here and for the purposes of this thread, seems like we should always be on the home team - OR maybe always on the + ml. Or maybe use the info to cap the game independently.
I played ND ML +135 .5u.
But totally understand and see a reason to play the Johnnies or pass all together.
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billywaddy |
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#14 Posted: 1/16/2011 10:27:21 AM |
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raffchfd |
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#15 Posted: 1/16/2011 11:20:03 AM |
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BandosWB |
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#16 Posted: 1/16/2011 2:10:37 PM
Not MY record: Tracking the HOME team on the ML: Assuming a flat risk of 100.
2-0 +270
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BandosWB |
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#17 Posted: 1/16/2011 2:51:04 PM
Monday, BTW, we have a rematch of Siena and Canisius. Canisius beat Siena at home by 1. Now at Sienna - prolly -150 on the ML
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Sabanade |
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#18 Posted: 1/16/2011 2:52:37 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by billywaddy:
im not on a side today because ND had 5 days of rest and STJ's had a tough game vs Cuse midweek.
Thats EXACTLY why I didnt jump on it too.... DAMNIT..... |
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raffchfd |
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#19 Posted: 1/17/2011 7:59:51 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor: Using last season's stats from kenpom's blog earlier this year:
Fortunately, there are plenty of rematches in the sport, so one can use real data to determine how much a head-to-head victory is a true verdict of superiority. Last season, there were 1,049 regular-season conference games which were a rematch of an earlier game. The winners of the initial game won 61.1% of the rematches. Not exactly a figure that inspires confidence that the outcome of a single game is useful to compare two teams. Keep that in mind as you make arguments about one team being better than another.
We should break this down further, though. Because we’re only looking at conference regular-season games in this sample, location is very important. For instance if the victor of the initial game was the road team, it won the rematch 80.2% of the time. This shouldn’t be surprising because it’s more difficult to win on the road and the rematch would be an easier game for the winner since it would occur at home.
The flip side is more instructive. When the home team was the winner of the first game, they were a collective 309-326 in the rematch. That’s right, a home winner is more likely to lose a rematch than win it. It gets better, though. A home team winning the first game by single-digits went a collective 96-195, winning 33.0% of the time. Considering that overall, road teams win conference games about 38% of the time, close home winners are really not proving their superiority at all.
Wait, there’s more. Home teams that won by one or two points were 16-52 in the rematches, winning just 23.5% of the time. Most fans like to think the results of a close game as just because teams that emerge victorious show grittiness, heart, and toughness. But those teams were almost certain losers when they faced the same team on the road. What happened to the grittiness then? To me, there’s no greater statement to the influence of luck in the outcome of a close game than the struggles of close home winners in a road game against the same team.
If you still doubt, consider this: The average margin for the winners of the first game in those cases was +1.6 points. The average margin for those teams in the rematch was -6.9, almost exactly double what many studies have shown to be typical home court advantage. Was there anything more going on for the close home winners than just simply being at home? It doesn’t appear that way.
siena -5.5 would be the play tonite since they lost by 1 at canisius earlier this season |
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raffchfd |
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#20 Posted: 1/17/2011 8:02:38 AM |
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#21 Posted: 1/17/2011 9:25:15 AM |
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aehs9111 |
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#22 Posted: 1/17/2011 9:25:20 AM |
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BandosWB |
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#23 Posted: 1/18/2011 8:21:22 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by billywaddy:
ND vs. Marquette on Saturday. Marquette won by DD last timeout
Marq won by 22. A bit out of the research but I still like ND in the rematch, and tomorrow.
Sienna was a winner on the ML. Laying pts nullifies any advantage.
PLEASE DO CONTINUE TO POST ANY REMATCH. There will be a ton soon but right now they are far and few between and easy to miss.
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RJSizzle |
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#24 Posted: 1/18/2011 8:36:18 PM
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RJSizzle |
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#25 Posted: 1/19/2011 9:58:49 AM
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