YTD Record Totals 244-153-3, +100.95 units Sides 89-85-4, +1.5 units 1h 12-9-2, +1.2 units 2h 34-13-1, +21.7 units ML 0-1, -1.0 units Overall 374-258-11, +124.35 units
Michigan St./Butler - Butler's defense has been outstanding in the tournament and over their L5 games, where they have allowed only 38.5% fg and 31.4% from 3p line. Their defensive A/TO ratio has been terrific at 0.68 and they have forced 15 TO's a game during this stretch. I think one of the largest concerns for Butler is for Howard to stay out of foul trouble in tonight's game. In their second round game vs. Murray St. which they easily could have lost, Howard only played 18 minutes with foul trouble and the Racers dominated the boards 38-20 in that game. Murray did themselves in though with 16 TO's and despite shooting a terrific 64.3% from the 3p line went down in a very tough loss. Butler escaped that game and a bad shooting performance, but took better care of the ball with only 6 TO's and was able to hang on for the win. MSU has a better bench and will prove to be very tough on the boards for Butler to handle. Howard absolutely needs to stay out of foul trouble. MSU defense hasn't really been that good over L5, where they have given up 42.5% fg and 40% 3pfg and a 1.1 a/to ratio against. However, I think MSU is definitely the better offensive team in this matchup and feel like Butler will have to have an incredible 3p shooting night to win the game. I am going with MSU in this game, as I like their experience, depth, coaching, offensive and rebounding advantages in this matchup and think they will pull it out and play in the final.
YTD Record Totals 244-153-3, +100.95 units Sides 89-85-4, +1.5 units 1h 12-9-2, +1.2 units 2h 34-13-1, +21.7 units ML 0-1, -1.0 units Overall 374-258-11, +124.35 units
Michigan St./Butler - Butler's defense has been outstanding in the tournament and over their L5 games, where they have allowed only 38.5% fg and 31.4% from 3p line. Their defensive A/TO ratio has been terrific at 0.68 and they have forced 15 TO's a game during this stretch. I think one of the largest concerns for Butler is for Howard to stay out of foul trouble in tonight's game. In their second round game vs. Murray St. which they easily could have lost, Howard only played 18 minutes with foul trouble and the Racers dominated the boards 38-20 in that game. Murray did themselves in though with 16 TO's and despite shooting a terrific 64.3% from the 3p line went down in a very tough loss. Butler escaped that game and a bad shooting performance, but took better care of the ball with only 6 TO's and was able to hang on for the win. MSU has a better bench and will prove to be very tough on the boards for Butler to handle. Howard absolutely needs to stay out of foul trouble. MSU defense hasn't really been that good over L5, where they have given up 42.5% fg and 40% 3pfg and a 1.1 a/to ratio against. However, I think MSU is definitely the better offensive team in this matchup and feel like Butler will have to have an incredible 3p shooting night to win the game. I am going with MSU in this game, as I like their experience, depth, coaching, offensive and rebounding advantages in this matchup and think they will pull it out and play in the final.
What are you seeing in the 2 games tonight for totals?
Just curious.
Big East - I had Butler/MSU at 128-129. Butler has done a terrific job defensively during the tournament and quite hard to play any of their games over the total imo, as they kind of have a way of inflicting their pace on the teams they oppose. MSU would like to play faster here, but I think will be able to adjust and run what they need to in the HC with all the different plays and sets that Izzo has. Too tight for me to play the total, so I will stalk for a HT play possibly. In the other game I had Duke/WVU at 129-130 so no value there imo. I am just hoping for a fairly refereed game there and would dearly love to see WVU win this one but am wary of playing them because I think Duke has the advtg. at the free throw line and will probably attempt more FT's than WVU will make. Not sure if WVU can overcome this and Duke will use all their fouls from their bigs. Expect the Plumlee brothers to get plenty of action tonight along with that stiff Zoubek who was given about 9 fouls against Baylor last weekend. Also would have to say I expect Singler to bounce back and play a solid game after one of his poorest performances. My heart wants to play WVU but I don't know if I can do it. BM just moved it from 2.5 to 2, so I will sit back and wait on this one. Just don't know if I can play it, and may be satisfied to wait until HT and root for WVU but like I said I think the refs are very important in this one and just hope Duke doesn't continue to get the preferential CBS darling treatment but I am afraid they will.
What are you seeing in the 2 games tonight for totals?
Just curious.
Big East - I had Butler/MSU at 128-129. Butler has done a terrific job defensively during the tournament and quite hard to play any of their games over the total imo, as they kind of have a way of inflicting their pace on the teams they oppose. MSU would like to play faster here, but I think will be able to adjust and run what they need to in the HC with all the different plays and sets that Izzo has. Too tight for me to play the total, so I will stalk for a HT play possibly. In the other game I had Duke/WVU at 129-130 so no value there imo. I am just hoping for a fairly refereed game there and would dearly love to see WVU win this one but am wary of playing them because I think Duke has the advtg. at the free throw line and will probably attempt more FT's than WVU will make. Not sure if WVU can overcome this and Duke will use all their fouls from their bigs. Expect the Plumlee brothers to get plenty of action tonight along with that stiff Zoubek who was given about 9 fouls against Baylor last weekend. Also would have to say I expect Singler to bounce back and play a solid game after one of his poorest performances. My heart wants to play WVU but I don't know if I can do it. BM just moved it from 2.5 to 2, so I will sit back and wait on this one. Just don't know if I can play it, and may be satisfied to wait until HT and root for WVU but like I said I think the refs are very important in this one and just hope Duke doesn't continue to get the preferential CBS darling treatment but I am afraid they will.
Duke -6.5 2* - I feel like Duke played probably the best game I have seen them play all year vs. WVU. Their execution on offense was very good and I was actually surprised how easy it looked for them against a very good defensive team in WVU. Credit Butler with a hard fought win and excellent second half defense against MSU, but they only shot 30% from the field. I feel like MSU's poor ball handling and TO's, missed free throws in 2H particularly and Butler's ability to cash in on the TO's were the difference. Butler will have to play much better than than that to beat Duke on Monday night, and I don't see that happening against a Duke team that is at the top of their game and is deeper, tougher on the boards and playing with a tremendous amount of confidence. It pains me to play them, but they convinced me with their fine performance against WVU.
Duke -6.5 2* - I feel like Duke played probably the best game I have seen them play all year vs. WVU. Their execution on offense was very good and I was actually surprised how easy it looked for them against a very good defensive team in WVU. Credit Butler with a hard fought win and excellent second half defense against MSU, but they only shot 30% from the field. I feel like MSU's poor ball handling and TO's, missed free throws in 2H particularly and Butler's ability to cash in on the TO's were the difference. Butler will have to play much better than than that to beat Duke on Monday night, and I don't see that happening against a Duke team that is at the top of their game and is deeper, tougher on the boards and playing with a tremendous amount of confidence. It pains me to play them, but they convinced me with their fine performance against WVU.
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