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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Ivy League Friday/Saturday, Week 4
Dmon826 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 2/18/2010 10:22:27 PM
Alright time to start this week's thread off.  I'm a little tight for time at the moment, but I'll do the best that I can tonight.  Here are tomorrow's four games:

Yale @ Princeton -11.5 (113.5)
Columbia @ Dartmouth +1 (115)
Brown @ Penn -4.5 (133)
Cornell @ Harvard +3 (139.5)

I'll be back in a bit with some writeups.  Let's get to work, guys.
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#2
Posted: 2/18/2010 10:24:56 PM
dmon played yale + the points and under in the columbia dartmouth game

want to play cornell so bad but the revenge angle is scaring me a hair my ratings have cornell -6 in this spot love ur imput on this league
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#3
Posted: 2/18/2010 10:41:24 PM
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#4
Posted: 2/18/2010 10:44:11 PM
Good luck Dmon. I am interested in your take on the Cornell/Harvard game. I'm thinking sweep personally but will wait to hear your thoughts.
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#5
Posted: 2/18/2010 11:11:40 PM
Lets do it buddy!
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#6
Posted: 2/18/2010 11:17:04 PM
Always look forward to your info.
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#7
Posted: 2/18/2010 11:18:14 PM
appreciate your writeups.
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#8
Posted: 2/18/2010 11:22:21 PM
can't wait for your write up
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#9
Posted: 2/18/2010 11:28:05 PM
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#10
Posted: 2/18/2010 11:42:47 PM
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#11
Posted: 2/18/2010 11:58:31 PM
Alright, just got back.  Time to get to work.  Let's start with the HUGE game this weekend.

CORNELL @ HARVARD +3

Obviously this is a monstrous game for both teams.  Here is what Cornell is playing for: if they win, they take control of the Ivy League and the only thing standing between them and the league title (and its automatic berth) is a taking-care-of-business game against Princeton at home in two weeks.  And here's what's at stake for Harvard: if they win, all of a sudden they've got a real chance to win the league again, as they'd tie Cornell in the loss column (and not have to play them again), get to watch Princeton probably lose at Cornell, and still have a chance to take care of Princeton themselves in the rematch.  If Harvard does win, the sh*t's gonna hit the fan and all of the two-way and three-way tie scenarios for for the league title are seriously in play.  So yeah, this is a big one.

Cornell comes into this one off of a huge road win at Princeton (after the shocking upset by Penn the night before) in which they took back control of their destiny.  They know they need to win this game, too, and they know it won't be easy.  Harvard comes into this one off of a gutty road weekend in which they toughed out a miraculous win at Yale and then took care of business against Brown.  I'm hearing that big men Keith Wright (important) and Andrew Van Nest (irrelevant) will miss this weekend's games again for Harvard with their injuries, but Mangarelli may return.

In the first matchup of these two teams, Cornell absolutely dominated Harvard in Ithaca.  The combination of Cornell coming out fired up and playing statement-game type basketball and Harvard's young team getting rattled and imploding with turnovers led to a blowout.  I'm not sure either of those factors can be counted on again this weekend for Cornell, as the venue changes and Harvard's kids did a lot of growing up in their last game.

Also, and I mean this quite literally, this is the biggest home game in Harvard's basketball history.  This is a school with absolutely no basketball tradition, but you have to give Amaker credit for building a program so quickly.  And not just on the court, but also in the stands, where the students are building a basketball tradition almost overnight.  Remember when you were a freshman and went to your first basketball game and were screaming and going crazy for the entire 40 minutes?  Well, imagine an entire school going through that experience together for the first time, and that's what's happening up in  Harvard.  The transformation has been really, really cool.  And tomorrow night's game is the big event they've all been waiting for.  The student section is incredibly well organized and they're ready to go.

As for the on-the-court matchup stuff, Harvard actually matches up pretty well with these guys.  They're the much more aggressive club attacking the basket and getting easy points from the line, while Cornell doesn't really do that at all and needs its threes to fall to put up points (which also plays into Harvard's hands nicely, since they do such a good job defending the perimeter).  Freshman Kyle Casey has emerged as a star in the front court for Harvard (he was both Ivy ROW and POW last week), and his emergence has been huge for this team as it takes the pressure off of senior stud guard Jeremy Lin.  He's had issues with foul trouble this year, but if he can stay on the floor tomorrow night (like he did all last weekend) that will be a huge boost for Harvard.

Really, when looking at this game, you should throw the first game out the window.  Cornell was at home and made a statement by spanking a young team that didn't really know what it was getting into and got visibly rattled.  But now that young team has grown up quite a bit, has watched Casey emerged as a star, and will have a frenzied home crowd energizing them from start to finish.

For me, this is either a Harvard bet or a no-play.  This is such a great spot for Harvard, I couldn't possibly play against them as they try to make their first-ever big statement as a basketball program.  I'll decide tomorrow if I'm going to back them, but they're definitely the lean.
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#12
Posted: 2/19/2010 12:21:42 AM
YALE @ PRINCETON -11.5

This game is real tough.  My first reaction when I saw this line was that I thought it was a bit inflated, which makes some sense given how they've covered in 6 of 7 league games (in impressive fashion, at that).  But the more I think about it, the more I think that this line is where it should be and I couldn't imagine playing Yale in this one.

This is a "take care of business" weekend for Princeton, in which a contender for the Ivy League crown must (and usually does) hold serve at home against the bottom-division talent.  While Yale isn't bad (they're probably the 4th best team in the league, after only the Cornell/Princeton/Harvard trifecta), Princeton's focus for the weekend is mostly on this game (with a cakewalk against Brown on Saturday) and the fact that this game comes first only helps them focus on Yale.  It's just hard to go against a contender here when it's in this kind of situation and knows what it needs to do.

While Princeton's offense is really hit-or-miss on any given day (although they've been "hit" way more often than "miss" recently), this defense is just always so damn impressive and so consistent.  They force a ton of turnovers, they prevent you from getting inside or getting easy baskets, and they do a great job of contest the outside shots they force you to take.

As I mentioned in my Princeton-Yale writeup three weeks ago from the first time these teams played, Princeton is a nightmarish matchup for Yale.  Yale's offense is centered around their big guys and their guards slashing, but Princeton just such a great job of taking that part of a team's offense away and forces them to shoot (contested) jumpers from the outside.  And Yale can't shoot.

Really, I wouldn't be surprised if this game gave us a final score very similar to the first game (58-45 Princeton).  I do expect Princeton to win this one comfortably.  I'd like to think they're in control from beginning to end, but their proclivity for slow starts in the past two weeks has me slightly concerned.  I think Princeton by 13 is about right, but with the line at -11.5, I don't think there's enough value for me to pull the trigger.
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#13
Posted: 2/19/2010 12:27:36 AM
Love the insight on these games...Yale/Priceton game, you thinging the Under 113 might be the play?
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#14
Posted: 2/19/2010 12:31:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cgonzo84:

Love the insight on these games...Yale/Priceton game, you thinging the Under 113 might be the play?


It's under or nothing (although personally I'm going with nothing).  I haven't discussed totals at all, but if I had to play one total tomorrow, it'd probably be the Cornell-Harvard OVER.
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#15
Posted: 2/19/2010 1:00:50 AM
BROWN @ PENN -4.5

Well, with the league's top 4 teams all playing each other tomorrow night (Cornell @ Harvard, Yale @ Princeton), that unfortunately leaves the bottom 4 teams to play each other as well, which gives us two real crapfests.  This is the first of those two games.

Penn's coming off a deflating loss to Princeton in which Princeton's unbelievably impressive D just sucked the life out of them and took them out of everything they wanted to do and Penn just couldn't make a damned shot.  Brown actually played decently last week, controlling the game against Dartmouth all the way and fighting Harvard tough for a half before the superior team took over.

Penn is just such a hard team to get a read on these days.  They're low on talent and injury-ravaged but they've played with so much heart since Jerome Allen took over that it's hard not to be impressed.  On the injury news front, Conor Turley is out for the year after tearing ligament in his finger last weekend, so he gets to join Bernardini, Schreiber, Loughery, and others on the IR.  Howlett returned last weekend from a foot injury after 2 months off, but he was last seen limping and grimacing a lot in the last game, and while he's fighting through it right now, he's in a lot of pain and definitely playing hurt.  This team is definitely fatigued (in addition to being banged up), and sadly I wouldn't expect a lot of energy in the building tomorrow night (it's about time for a post-Cornell and post-Princeton hangover).

Brown has an extremely young team (one of the youngest in the country), and they're very inconsistent.  They play a lot of guys that can shoot and handle the ball, which will help them a lot against Penn (which has been mixing in a 1-3-1 trapping zone a lot lately).  Penn has trouble against teams that take care of the ball and can shoot from the outside, and Brown does a decent job of both.  Brown's big problem is its conference-worst defense which doesn't do much of anything well (or even decently).  But Penn is just so worn down right now I'm not sure they can really take advantage.  Brown had a really good gameplan for the Penn offense last game, doubling/trapping Rosen on all ball screens, and in that game nobody on Penn was able to step up and hit a shot to make them pay.  That probably won't change tomorrow.

Between Penn being just so worn down and coming off an extremely emotional week (the Cornell game, the Columbia letdown, then a rivalry game vs. Princeton), it may be hard to get up for this game.  And the atmosphere in the Palestra is almost sure to be pretty flat.  Also, for what it's worth, Brown was jobbed in the Penn game three weeks ago, when Penn "won" the game on a tip-in at the buzzer that replay showed was clearly after the buzzer.  But since there is no video replay in the Ivy League, Penn escaped with a "win" and Brown got scammed.  They feel they owe us payback.

With all these things combined, I lean to Brown and taking the points.  This will be a close game.
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#16
Posted: 2/19/2010 1:14:49 AM
 good info
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#17
Posted: 2/19/2010 1:15:31 AM
COLUMBIA @ DARTMOUTH +1

Thankfully, we've reached our last game.  I need to get up early for work tomorrow, so things could get ugly for me tomorrow lol.  Let's close it out with Crapfest #2.

Dartmouth stinks.  I mean, they really stink.  They try hard and they have good intentions and all, but this is one of the worst basketball teams I've seen all year, especially offensively.  I'm not sure they could score on five of us.  Columbia's pretty bad themselves, and especially terrible on the road, but they played really well on the road last weekend (staying with and actually leading at Princeton for most of the way, then beating Penn) and they've been playing well in general lately.

I'm keeping this one simple and either taking Columbia or not playing this game.  You might think that Dartmouth has to win a game eventually in this league and that this game represents one of its two best shots (with home vs. Brown next week being the other), but I wouldn't count on it.  Columbia's been taking business against the bad teams in this league, and I certainly wouldn't go against them by taking Dartmouth.  My decision on whether or not to actually play Columbia will be made at some point tomorrow afternoon.
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#18
Posted: 2/19/2010 1:19:43 AM
Hate to see you backing Harvard. I kind of agree with what you said the first time around about Cornell being in another class. I will probably lay off now but I still think the Big Red puts the Ivy League away tonight for the most part. Good luck.
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#19
Posted: 2/19/2010 1:22:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The_Outlaw:

Hate to see you backing Harvard. I kind of agree with what you said the first time around about Cornell being in another class. I will probably lay off now but I still think the Big Red puts the Ivy League away tonight for the most part. Good luck.


Well I'm not backing Harvard yet.  But I just think the spot/situation dictates either a Harvard play or nothing.
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#20
Posted: 2/19/2010 1:29:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The_Outlaw:

Hate to see you backing Harvard. I kind of agree with what you said the first time around about Cornell being in another class. I will probably lay off now but I still think the Big Red puts the Ivy League away tonight for the most part. Good luck.


Totally
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#21
Posted: 2/19/2010 2:01:08 AM

Thanks Dmon!

Once again...your write-ups are by far the best and most informative on this site.

There are other good handicappers on this site, but they appear to be looking for friends instead of trying to make money.

Your write-ups make me feel as though I am right there on the East Coast about to watch an Ivy League game. Now, that's what's up.

A few years back, I was coaching at Artesia HS and Cornell was playing someone out here. Anyway, I had to open the gym for them so they could practice. It was cool watching them work. I even picked up a drill from them that I still use today.

Thank you. GL tomorrow

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#22
Posted: 2/19/2010 2:12:17 AM

The trailor park people have this figured out real easy. What the f*ck is wrong w/you?  This is gold Friday! This garbage ain't hard.

 

Yale covers the 12 ... Cornell snacks on the Dead Harvard hide. They eat their flesh and win by 20! 

There is the  Columbia thing,We see a give up , and they just stroll through this thing.   Dartmouth will throw the least amount of effort as possible. That's what they do. No garbage. They just show up andthen go to  go to class. Dartmouth did the quit thing long ago.

 Big garbage quick it on the Dartmouth lazy fools.  It's a winner, oh f*cking yeh. Thinking 2 units on the Cornell game. The Trailor park says 5 on the road tomorrow.

O.D. +3

Yale +12

CORNELL- 2.5

Columbia-1

Will@Mary +3.5

 

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#23
Posted: 2/19/2010 2:16:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Blue_Chips:

Thanks Dmon!

Once again...your write-ups are by far the best and most informative on this site.

There are other good handicappers on this site, but they appear to be looking for friends instead of trying to make money.

Your write-ups make me feel as though I am right there on the East Coast about to watch an Ivy League game. Now, that's what's up.

A few years back, I was coaching at Artesia HS and Cornell was playing someone out here. Anyway, I had to open the gym for them so they could practice. It was cool watching them work. I even picked up a drill from them that I still use today.

Thank you. GL tomorrow



That's a really great story.  Was Coach Donahue coaching them at the time?  In addition to being a heck of a basketball coach, he's also a great guy and a total class act.
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#24
Posted: 2/19/2010 2:22:22 AM
Alright, guys, I'm out for the night.  Just like always I'll be happy to discuss the games and answer any questions throughout the day tomorrow.  And at some point tomorrow, I'll post my plays as well.  But hopefully there's enough there in the writeups above to get you started thinking about these games.
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#25
Posted: 2/19/2010 2:47:13 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Dmon826:

Alright, guys, I'm out for the night.  Just like always I'll be happy to discuss the games and answer any questions throughout the day tomorrow.  And at some point tomorrow, I'll post my plays as well.  But hopefully there's enough there in the writeups above to get you started thinking about these games.

Penn/Brown UNDER is the best play here fellas, linesmakers still haven't adjusted to Penn's new tempo/style of defense.

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