NCAABB YTD: 87-81-9 (+12.05 units)
Wednesday: 4-1 (+5.3 units)
After 3 straight losses, Purdue has bounced back nicely, with a great road win at Illinois who always plays us tough and has been very difficult to beat them and then a smashing against Michigan in their last game (although it ended in a 10 point win, Purdue was up by 27 in the second half before getting sluggish to end the game – they immediately took control of the game after the first 5 minutes.)
This game is starting to get into a little rivalry for both teams – every time they play over the last 3 years at least one team has been very good, if not both. Since the Matt Painter era, Purdue has not lost at home to Wisconsin, including a 12 point win last year and a huge upset two years ago when the Baby Boilers beat then #8 Wisconsin.
They met earlier this year, and Wisconsin was able to control the second half behind some hot shooting by Bohannon and Jordan Taylor. JaJuan Johsnon played one of his worst games of the year, but over the last several games he has been a beast and taking control of the paint (Big Ten Player of the week last week). The injury to Jon Luer will be HUGE this time around and I expect JaJuan to be just as dominant as he has been. Wisky could have easily lost their last two home games, they were down late in the second half to both Michigan and Penn St., who are poor road teams.
Purdue is going to come out fired up to start this game. They realize how much it means to them as the Big Ten title is still up for grabs with 2 meetings against Michigan St. still to come later this season. Still this game has more meaning than “just the numbers.” Wisconsin won’t let this game get into a blowout. They will manage to keep it somewhat respectable which is why I originally leaned in favor of the Badgers.
With that said, JaJuan Johnson will be the key to this game. If he can get on a roll, then that will force Wisky to start double teaming him inside which will allow Hummel and E’Twuan some good looks on the perimeter. I’m switching gears and going with PURDUE -8 (-120) for a 3 unit play. I’m not going to go crazy on this game, but I really feel Purdue will control the pace to their favor from the start and win by 11-13 points.
As a side play, I also like the first half line for Purdue, whatever that # is (would be around -4.5). Wisky and Purdue have been on opposite ends in the first half of games lately. Wisky struggles and Purdue opening up. I’ll be taking Purdue 1H when that line comes out tomorrow morning.
As for the over/under (which is 126) I would play under, but I generally do not play totals so I’ll keep that away.
BOL to everyone. But I can see the line continue to climb just a tad into Thursday, so if you are thinking about taking Purdue, I’d lock it in now but if you like Wisconsin, I’d wait a bit.