NCAA Hoops Monday

0-0, +0.00

San Diego at Pacific

This is really one of those spots that I generally try to stay away from, but I see value that I cannot pass up. First, let's get to the negatives. San Diego is coming off a good win against Stanford, meaning this is a possibility for a letdown. They haven't played all that great off a big win the past few years. On the flip side, Pacific is coming off a 2OT victory with momentum after playing poorly at Pepperdine, they're a better team than what they showed, or are they? Two key factors that I will re-itterate time and time again in the college game is experience and guard play, something that San Diego trumps Pacific in, in both categories. This is a San Diego team that hung with UNLV and Wisconsin early on last year, before gaining some much needed experience and going on to beat Oregon (who was playing good ball at the time), and Mississippi State on the road. Toward the end of the year, they beat this same Pacific team with the final score being 66-60. They shot extremely well from the 3-point line that game, which led to the victory. Two more key things to note - the best player on the court tonight in Brandon Johnson, wasn't on San Diego's squad last year b/c of an achilles tear. He's back at full strength, adding depth to a backcourt that includes 3 prolific scoring seniors. Another one of those seniors, D'Jon Jackson was recruited pretty hard by Pacific after looking at some of my notes from last year's meeting. He's the kid who hit the shot on UCONN in the tourney a few year's back. All of that experience, a combined 13 years now at the guard slot for San Diego, while Pacific is no where near close to that. While experience should be a factor, the guard play should factor in as well. Pacific's guards are playing for defensive purposes. Over the past few seasons, they haven't been able to bring in what i would call a type 2 player, meaning they can both excel on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. This showed in their first game of the season, shooting a horrible offensive percentage, only to win the game in the final minutes with a few key defensive stops. A majority of their outside scoring will come from their big's stepping out to take the occasional jumpers, something which Grier and the San Diego will look to take away tonight. Pacific has a big advantage down low. I would assume they'd rather take those advantages rather than bringing them out to the arc. When I look at what I would think the scouting reports for each squad would look like tonight, I would assume that Pacific's is to hammer the ball inside. San Diego has played some man-to-man in recent years since Howland left, but they play their best basketball in the matchup zone. I would assume they will explore that opportunity tonight with the miss matches on the inside to give extra help to the bigs and keep them inside where they can deal with points in the paint. On the offensive side of the ball for San Diego, they did an extremely great job at attacking the paint and the rim the other night against Stanford with slashing guard play. They'll look to do the same tonight, creating two issues for Pacific to defend. First issue is foul trouble, and the second is the thought of San Diego kicking it to the outside for an open shot. Don't get me wrong, Pacific's guards are in there to play defense, I just think there is a distinct advantage on the offensive side of the ball for San Diego, which is rare, and the cause for the short line which holds value in my opinion. Stockton's a tough place to play. Especially after beating a team in Stanford, but to be brutally honest, I think San Diego thought they could win that game, and I'm positive they think they can win tonight's game as well. Experience and guard play this early in the season, I'll take my chances.

I think USF/Virginia are about as two equal teams as you can find in basketball, just couldn't find a reason to take the dog. I think Auburn's a better team that Missouri State, who I see on the downslide, but that's a tough place to play. Won't touch Elon for a while with a new coach. I'll never touch a game with a spread higher than 20. I think Indiana is going to be better than people think this year and the line's are going to be short early, just don't know enough about SC Upstate to take a deeper look. If WKU displays even 60% of what they showed me last year against Illinois in the tourney, they should win this game by 15+, but i'm not laying chalk this early. And I looked long and hard at CS Northridge, but they didn't make the cut. I think they're a much better squad than TCU, even though TCU has some depth and some athletic ability. CS Northridge got behind early at Purdue giving up buckets the first ten possessions, but played good ball with them for 30 minutes. No totals released yet, but I won't look at totals until mid-december, although there is a few unders I would probably lean to blind on this card.

GL