Posted:
#1
YTD: 6-0, +13.12 units
Pac-10 YTD: 2-0, +4.00 units
UCLA YTD: 0-0, +0.00 units
Effing Patriots last night. I have the OVER 48 for the game and take the under 24.5 at half hoping for a huge middle. I have it all wrapped up until they get stuffed on the fourth and short and let Indy come in and take the game. Then, to add insult to injury, Colts only win by 1 when I passed up that number at MB and instead went for laying the 2.5. I hope my "luck" last night doesn't continue into tonight's schedule.
On a much more important note... UCLA game today! YES! Obviously I hit a pretty good percentage of the UCLA games last year. They are the squad I follow religiously and the one that I most clearly have a great read on. I've learned a lot of tendencies of Coach Howland and I think we can use that to our advantage to make some money, especially in the early season and on second half plays. Note: I always lean UCLA in the second half if they played a crappy first half as Howland is fantastic at adjustments at half time, especially in important games.
That being said, there's a reason they play all the games. Tail at your own risk. I've started super-hot this year and there's no way I can keep that pace, or anything close to it, all season.
Might as well get this out of the way early:
1. Cal State Fullerton Titans +17 (-107), 2.14 to win 2 -- Yes, my first UCLA play of the year is a fade of the Bruins. Let me break down my rationale:
I may add more plays throughout the day. I'm looking at Virginia (lots of love for Bennett as a coach) possibly.
BOL to everyone!
Pac-10 YTD: 2-0, +4.00 units
UCLA YTD: 0-0, +0.00 units
Effing Patriots last night. I have the OVER 48 for the game and take the under 24.5 at half hoping for a huge middle. I have it all wrapped up until they get stuffed on the fourth and short and let Indy come in and take the game. Then, to add insult to injury, Colts only win by 1 when I passed up that number at MB and instead went for laying the 2.5. I hope my "luck" last night doesn't continue into tonight's schedule.
On a much more important note... UCLA game today! YES! Obviously I hit a pretty good percentage of the UCLA games last year. They are the squad I follow religiously and the one that I most clearly have a great read on. I've learned a lot of tendencies of Coach Howland and I think we can use that to our advantage to make some money, especially in the early season and on second half plays. Note: I always lean UCLA in the second half if they played a crappy first half as Howland is fantastic at adjustments at half time, especially in important games.
That being said, there's a reason they play all the games. Tail at your own risk. I've started super-hot this year and there's no way I can keep that pace, or anything close to it, all season.
Might as well get this out of the way early:
1. Cal State Fullerton Titans +17 (-107), 2.14 to win 2 -- Yes, my first UCLA play of the year is a fade of the Bruins. Let me break down my rationale:
- UCLA historically starts slow, especially in these pre-season games when it comes to covering large numbers. Coach Howland tends to use these games really as teaching tools and not as opportunity to put up a 30 point victory and playing his starters a majority of the minutes. This situation is even more applicable to this year's UCLA team as they are extremely young and have only played two exhibitions -- barely beating Concordia (though they were missing key players Michael Roll and Jerime Anderson, therefore necessitating a walk-on PG getting major minutes) and then beating Humboldt State by 17
- Cal State Fullerton plays in a better league and is a better squad than Humboldt, who UCLA needed to beat by 10 in the second half to tie the amount of chalk they are laying to CSUF tonight.
- A lot of these kids on CSUF are from the Los Angeles/Southern California area (I count 11) and probably would like nothing more than to play great on national television against the big bully in the backyard, UCLA. I don't believe that UCLA recruited any of CSUF's players, which could also serve as motivation for the CSUF squad to show UCLA's coaches what they missed out on.
- This is by far the biggest game on CSUF's schedule while it's just another game for UCLA as they get their rotations down and Coach Howland figures out who seems to play well with who in game situations.
- UCLA is nowhere near mid-season form yet. For example, the vaunted and trademark UCLA /Ben Howland signature double teams, one of if not THE keys to UCLA's defense, was just being introduced to the freshman at Thursday's practice. I doubt that the freshman, of whom I would expect all except Honeycutt to get playing time (cause of an injury), will fully understand the nuances and timing of the post to post double teams and the rotations to cover for those by tonight's game. Another example:
"Coach Howland is a real defensively oriented guy, and of course we're not up to the standards where he or us want to be at," sophomore guard Malcolm Lee said. "Just like working on help-side defensive rotation, we even haven't put that in yet. We have a lot on the defensive side to catch up on.
- CSUF brings back four starters from a 15-17 team, but they lose their most potent scorer in Josh Akognon, former Washington State Cougar turned CSUF Titan. He was a solid player but CSUF should be able to handle his loss by only having to integrate one new starter.
- Tyler Honeycutt's injury means that Nikola Dragovic will have to play a lot of small forward, which is a problem for him. When Dragovic plays the 4, he is mismatched and can pull most of the bigs outside of the paint and really create some space for slashing to the basket. However, when matched up on a 3, especially an athletic one, he's gonna have trouble guarding them on the perimeter. He just doesn't have the lateral quickness on the defensive end to stick with fast, athletic players. The problem with that is once he gets burned by his guy driving to the bucket, he has to rely on defensive help and as we saw above, UCLA is still learning (especially the freshman) as to how Coach Howland expects his rotations and weak-side help to react.
I may add more plays throughout the day. I'm looking at Virginia (lots of love for Bennett as a coach) possibly.
BOL to everyone!
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