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QUOTE Originally Posted by GameHunter:

You can get and idea of a total by looking at Pace, which is average possessions per game and Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies, which is a calculation of points per possession. if a team is 100 on Offensive Efficiency, it means they average 1 point per possession. 104 means 1.04 points per possession, 95 would mean .95 points per possession, etc. Therefore, if a team averages 66 possession per game and 100 on Offensive Efficiency, they can be expected to score 66 points per game.

I sometimes due a formula to get an idea of where a game should be. i take each teams Offensive ("OE") and Defensive Efficiencies ("DE") and divide by 2. Say Team A has an OE of 102 and DE of 98. That is 200/2 = 100. Say they have a Pace rating of 66. Therefore, they rate 66. Say Team B has an OE = 110 and DE = 100 and have a pace rating of 70. That would be 210/2 (105) times 70 = 73.5.

I would add 66 + 70.5 to get a raw score of 136.5 for a total.

Then if you want to get more sophisticated, you would do an analysis of the Pace ratings of each team's opponents. Maybe Team A has played teams that rank in the slowest paced teams in the country. If you notice something valuable like that, you could equate that team A's rating is intrinsically lower than it should be in reality and that against a team like Team B with a pace rating of 70, you could expect them to play a faster pace than their 66 shows and therefore the Over might have value.

That's my brief introduction into Kenpom and its value towards totals. Hope it helps a little.