Maryland +9.5
The Terps come into today's game against the high and mighty Memphis Tigers as decided underdogs. The Terps were never supposed to be here, Memphis was screwed out of a #1 seed. Memphis has not lost in something like two years and 155 straight games.......oh ok.
Memphis played in perhaps one of the weakest major conferences in the country. So weak in fact, they were the ONLY team to get into the Dance. So before Tiger backers start telling me that they are very good anyway, plain and simple, they are not battle-tested. Maryland is.
Memphis has played JUST 5....yes 5.....games against RPI Top 50 teams. That's it. Maryland has played 17 games against Top 50 teams (6-11 record). The Terps have played UNC twice, Dook three times, Michigan St., Wake, and many other good ACC teams. Terps also beat UNC, Wake, Michigan St. Based on SOS and who has been here before, major edge to the Terps.
Not saying Memphis is not talented. They are very athletic....against some very crap teams. I don't need to hear about the win against the Zags and how the Terps lost to the Zags. That was months ago. Three major factors today that give the Terps an edge and maybe even enough ammunition for the SU win:
1) Memphis never plays from behind. How do they react when they are behind against a battle-tested team instead of a #15 seed like the other day. Does the infighting start with all those egos??? Do they get frazzled? Do egos start to take over?
2) Terps will switch between man to man and a zone they have used for the last month that has caused teams major problems. Can Memphis hit their outside shots? More importantly, will they hit their FT's......because shooting 55% again won't work.
3) Can the Terps hit some outside shots and stay respectable on the boards? They have gotten killed on the boards all year yet found ways to win. Wake and UNC are as big as Memphis. How often do the Terps get to the charity stripe where they are VERY good.
In the end, I think this is a classic. I think Gary Williams and his undersized, overachieving team keeps it very close. Hell, if UNC twice, Dook three times, Mich St, Wake etc don't intimindate you, why in the HELL would a team from a shit conference scare you????
Terps +9.5 LARGE
Terps ML +390 medium
By the way.....where do you think Memphis would have finished in the ACC with the Terps schedule? I say at least five losses, maybe six.