UCLA/VCU thoughts

I see a lot of people picking VCU with an upset over UCLA in round one. Reasons to possibly second-guess that bet:

1. Pac-10 schedules are Thursday/Saturday, which means that the tournament games approximate a normal Pac-10 conference week very well. UCLA has a sick winning percentage in Thursday games, something like 85%+ if I remember correctly. Whenever you give Howland at least four days to scout a team, you will get an excellent gameplan. He already has more than 15 tapes of VCU to go through. The Bruins will be prepared.

2. Let's look at VCU's schedule this year:

• Loss to Northeastern
• Loss to Delaware
• Loss to UNC-Wilmington
• Loss to East Carolina
• Loss to Old Dominion
• 1 point win over Richmond
• 4 point win over Akron
• 5 point win in OT over James Madison

I just don't see the quality of competition of a UCLA type team. They lost to Vandy, Rhode Island, and Oklahoma, all pretty decent teams. Their signature win? The 4 point win over Akron.

I'm not saying that VCU can't beat UCLA, but I think there are better spots out there to pick an upset on.

3. Matchups -- Maynor is 6'2", 165, not a big guard. Rodriguez is 5'10", 160. The teams that historically give UCLA problems are teams with big, long guards who can slow down Collison on the defensive end (hi Derrick Rose, among others). Place a lockdown defender at the guard spot on Collison and you totally break down the UCLA offense. I don't think that will be a problem for the Bruins against VCU.

Just a couple of thoughts off the top of my head. I'll check back in the thread during the next few coming days with more news and analysis about this game.

Larry Sanders, the VCU big that I hear a lot of people talking about -- let's take a look at a few of his performances:

• Oklahoma -- 4 rebounds
• Richmond -- 4 rebounds
• Akron -- 2 rebounds
• Rhode Island -- 2 rebounds
• Citadel -- 1 rebound

I know UCLA isn't a killer on the glass, but if these teams can throw the locks on him, I have to believe that Alfred Aboya can do the same. Kid is a beast and has the experience (3 Final Fours in 3 years, pretty impressive)

Big10 -- I just don't think that VCU is a big matchup problem with UCLA. Villanova on the other hand has powerful guards and could create a real problem for the Bruins.

Payne -- therein lies the real problem, I never know which UCLA team to expect. The one that pounded teams in the middle of the year or the crappy version we saw towards the end of the Pac-10 schedule? Another thing to take into consideration: Darren Collison has made no bones about having his mind set on the tournament the entire year:

"I've been ready for the NCAAs since I came back," UCLA point guard Darren Collison said, referring to his decision to return for a senior season. "I wanted to skip the whole Pac-10 and the whole season, (and) just to go to the NCAA Tournament.""

Crus

bracks -- always like to hear dissenting opinions, appreciate the thoughts.

Couple other points:

• VCU's coach is Anthony Grant, who was an assistant with Florida in 2006 when they beat UCLA in the title game, so he should be somewhat familiar with UCLA's offensive and defensive schemes.
• Collison should be healthy regarding his tailbone injury he suffered against Oregon: Which means Collison needs to recover in a hurry from a sore tailbone that dates to the fall he took against Oregon in the regular-season finale. Lingering pain hampered him against USC last week, though Sunday he said: "I feel a lot better."
• Drew Gordon's X-Rays on his left knee were negative, so he should be ready to go for Thursday

Maine -- I'm definitely hoping that trend will continue as well. If VCU can't get past those teams I listed above in my original post, they will have trouble with UCLA most likely.

Blake -- I appreciate the VCU perspective, your points are all very true as well

I would be extremely surprised if Collison actually matches up against Maynor. I think Collison will get Rodriguez and Howland will put Holiday and Lee up against Maynor. I'd personally prefer Lee, since he is 6'5" with long arms and great footwork, and I know how that type of player can slow down a guy only 6'2".

UCLA's main thing that scares me is consistency, but I have to bet on their three battle tested seniors stepping it up and making the necessary plays to win this game and cover the chalk.

UCLA does have a huge advantage in the depth area. They go 10 deep (Dragovich, Aboya, Collison, Shipp, Holiday, Lee, Anderson, Keefe, Gordon, Roll), and if what you are saying about 40 minutes of a press is true, I think it might be playing right into UCLA's hands as they will have fresher legs to handle the pressure.

Blake -- It appears that if you can shut down Maynor, you can beat VCU, no?

• 8 points vs. Bill and Mary
• 12 points vs. Drexel
• 9 points vs. Georgia State

If those teams can at least slow down Maynor, Howland's defensive schemes should be able to do the same.

Key word: should.

That's why they play the games

I agree with most of your points, but ESPECIALLY this one. Every time I've watched VCU, and Maynor got shut out, VCU had a thorn in their side trying to get on the W side of things.  I think alot of people are underestimating what a defensive wizard Ben Howland is.  He'll have Maynor all but closed up, forcing the rest of the perimeter game to step up for VCU.  And UCLA is still a team with 4-5 athletes that can go off at any time.  I don't see how you could go against a team like that, with a sleeping giant in a point guard?

UCLA big for me bud.

I like UCLA and every time I like them they disappoint me so watch out for VCU outright. However if UCLA does win and meets Nova then I like Nova so maybe UCLA could be Sweet 16 bound because I get every game UCLA plays wrong.

I'm expecting a 118.5 or something, and we'll have to wait for it to get bet up.

 

Why do I think that UCLA can shut down Eric Maynor? I have to agree with Drizzle --  Howland has 4 days to gameplan and scheme for him. UCLA will know all of VCU's favorite plays that they run for him like the back of their hand.

Don't forget that I can pretty much guarantee that Sanders has not seen a post-to-post double team like he will against UCLA on Thursday. If your big man doesn't make good, quick decisions when the post-to-post double comes, that leads to turnovers and easy buckets for UCLA on the break.

I FUCKING LOVE HOW THE ESPN FOOLS AND THE PUBLIC ALL OVER FUCKING VCU! MAYNOR THIS MAYNOR THAT! COLLISON IS A LOCK DOWN DEFENDER AND AS KAPONO SAID BIG GUARDS GIVE UCLA TROUBLE NOT LITTLE MIDGETS! LOOK AT THE PATHETIC TEAMS VCU LOST TO!

If, and this is a BIG if, but if UCLA gets by VCU and then beats Villanova, watch out. That would be a huge confidence booster for them, they could still play the "everyone is against us/underdog" card, and would definitely have the talent/athletes to match up against Duke or a revenge game in Texas in the Sweet Sixteen.

Another Pitt/UCLA Elite Eight matchup after that?