Take who Vegas tells you to 2/22/09

The linesmakers dont know shit, they just set lines. It's not that tough to do. If the line is off, the money will move it. It's just a market. They don't give a shit which side you take and don't know who will cover- that often comes down to a missed or made three or a few missed free throws. 40% of games fall within 5 points of the line so they are doing a good overall job of setting the lines and having the results keep both sides in it. That's all they need to do, the randomness of basketball, the hot shooting nights, the cold shooting nights, the foul trouble, etc. etc. will throw enough wrenches out there to keep everyone in check. Again, they could give a shit which side you take. Now your book might care if he's heavy one way, then he'll root for the other side, but even on the heavy one sided games he's just gotta hit a little over 40% to break even. There are some solid methods that will help you get to 58% winners and make a ton of money, but figuring out what the linesmakers want you to take is not one of them. I make lines all the time that fall almost exactly where the line comes out, and while I understand that public perception falls into the line (and I know that fading the obvious is often a good basis for a play as long as you know what exactly you are fading and why) the line is not made to trap anyone or suck you to one side or the other. That being said, good luck with your method.

Losers: Cuse, Ga Tech (bums should have covered but atleast they played em well)

 

Xavier is a Push

 

Winner: ILL

Vegas said to take Duke today