Posted:
#1
Hey guys -- Sorry for the late posting on the discussion about this game. I know Bird did a write-up already, but I feel the need to throw my two cents in here since I follow the Bruins extremely closely.
I'll cut to the chase -- there is no way that I would be backing UCLA tonight (granted I'm 0-5 recently and fade material, but hear me out!). Those that do are playing with fire. Washington +8.5 is an absolute gift.
There is huge value in the Washington +300 moneyline.
If the line were UCLA -2 or -3, I'd consider UCLA. But with where the chalk is at right now, you are basically betting on a double digit victory. I wouldn't count on that happening, not with how this UCLA team absolutely folded in the first half against Arizona. That was a total, utter, absolute embarassment and likely was the worst 20 minutes of basketball I've seen out of UCLA since Howland took over.
Rationale:
1. Washington is a superb rebounding team. UCLA did pretty good when they played up in Seattle, only getting outrebounded by two. Good job, Bruins, no doubt. But a large portion of the rebounding duties falls square on the shoulders of (future Cameroonian President) Alfred Aboya, who has been battling the flu and hasn't eaten solid food in three days. Let's put it this way -- I'd be scared to back UCLA at home if Keefe and Dragovic are supposed to be able to keep Brockman and Bryan-Armstrong off of the glass. I'm expecting a lot of Washington easy put backs and offensive rebounds tonight.
2. This is not the same UCLA team from prior years when it comes to leadership.
Let me repeat that:
This is not the same UCLA team from prior years when it comes to leadership.
When a freshman (Drew Gordon) is the only one being vocal about how this team lacks heart (which, sadly to say, it does at this point) -- you know you have a leadership problem. Yes, UCLA has three seniors who have been to 3 straight Final Fours (Aboya, Shipp, and Collison). Aboya has the right warrior mentality that Love, Farmar, Afflalo, and Mbah a Moute had, but he doesn't have their level of talent and just can't get it done by himself. Collison often disappears in big games (sad but true) and has trouble when he can't use his quickness to out-quick the opposing guard. Isaiah Thomas will be able to stick with Collison step for step tonight.
3. This Washington team is not afraid of playing in Pauley Pavilion and thinks they can beat UCLA. They saw Arizona State sweep UCLA and will be just as motivated as UCLA, if not more, to win this one and take a stranglehold on the Pac-10 lead and gain a huge win for seeding purposes.
4. UCLA has not yet beat a ranked team -- translation: they beat up on the crappy teams but when they are faced with someone who won't back down, they have trouble answering the bell punch for punch (it totally saddens me to write that, but it's true). UCLA has lost to all the good teams they've played this year: Arizona State (twice), Arizona, Texas, Michigan, and Washington.
Here are some X factors:
1. Shitty Pac-10 Refs -- remember me saying in a thread a while ago that Pac-10 refs are the WORST in the nation at hometowning road teams? Look at the box score from the game in Washington. UCLA had 15 free throws, Washington had 43(!). There's always the possibility that gets reversed tonight.
2. UCLA freshman not named Jrue Holliday -- these guys are ready to explode, and doing it in a big game against Washington at home could be when they do it. I still remain the most impressed with Malcolm Lee -- good length, drives hard to the bucket, great footwork on defense -- and Drew Gordon. That cat plays hard and isn't afraid to mix it up with people, brings a little attitude and toughness that UCLA is sorely lacking.
3. Ben Howland has not lost three games in a row since his first year in Westwood, I believe.
My point? Be careful with UCLA tonight. I see a lot of cappers that I respect making UCLA one of their largest plays of the night. I hope and pray that I am wrong on this one and that UCLA blows Washington right out of the water, but I just don't see it happening tonight.
I'll cut to the chase -- there is no way that I would be backing UCLA tonight (granted I'm 0-5 recently and fade material, but hear me out!). Those that do are playing with fire. Washington +8.5 is an absolute gift.
There is huge value in the Washington +300 moneyline.
If the line were UCLA -2 or -3, I'd consider UCLA. But with where the chalk is at right now, you are basically betting on a double digit victory. I wouldn't count on that happening, not with how this UCLA team absolutely folded in the first half against Arizona. That was a total, utter, absolute embarassment and likely was the worst 20 minutes of basketball I've seen out of UCLA since Howland took over.
Rationale:
1. Washington is a superb rebounding team. UCLA did pretty good when they played up in Seattle, only getting outrebounded by two. Good job, Bruins, no doubt. But a large portion of the rebounding duties falls square on the shoulders of (future Cameroonian President) Alfred Aboya, who has been battling the flu and hasn't eaten solid food in three days. Let's put it this way -- I'd be scared to back UCLA at home if Keefe and Dragovic are supposed to be able to keep Brockman and Bryan-Armstrong off of the glass. I'm expecting a lot of Washington easy put backs and offensive rebounds tonight.
2. This is not the same UCLA team from prior years when it comes to leadership.
Let me repeat that:
This is not the same UCLA team from prior years when it comes to leadership.
When a freshman (Drew Gordon) is the only one being vocal about how this team lacks heart (which, sadly to say, it does at this point) -- you know you have a leadership problem. Yes, UCLA has three seniors who have been to 3 straight Final Fours (Aboya, Shipp, and Collison). Aboya has the right warrior mentality that Love, Farmar, Afflalo, and Mbah a Moute had, but he doesn't have their level of talent and just can't get it done by himself. Collison often disappears in big games (sad but true) and has trouble when he can't use his quickness to out-quick the opposing guard. Isaiah Thomas will be able to stick with Collison step for step tonight.
3. This Washington team is not afraid of playing in Pauley Pavilion and thinks they can beat UCLA. They saw Arizona State sweep UCLA and will be just as motivated as UCLA, if not more, to win this one and take a stranglehold on the Pac-10 lead and gain a huge win for seeding purposes.
4. UCLA has not yet beat a ranked team -- translation: they beat up on the crappy teams but when they are faced with someone who won't back down, they have trouble answering the bell punch for punch (it totally saddens me to write that, but it's true). UCLA has lost to all the good teams they've played this year: Arizona State (twice), Arizona, Texas, Michigan, and Washington.
Here are some X factors:
1. Shitty Pac-10 Refs -- remember me saying in a thread a while ago that Pac-10 refs are the WORST in the nation at hometowning road teams? Look at the box score from the game in Washington. UCLA had 15 free throws, Washington had 43(!). There's always the possibility that gets reversed tonight.
2. UCLA freshman not named Jrue Holliday -- these guys are ready to explode, and doing it in a big game against Washington at home could be when they do it. I still remain the most impressed with Malcolm Lee -- good length, drives hard to the bucket, great footwork on defense -- and Drew Gordon. That cat plays hard and isn't afraid to mix it up with people, brings a little attitude and toughness that UCLA is sorely lacking.
3. Ben Howland has not lost three games in a row since his first year in Westwood, I believe.
My point? Be careful with UCLA tonight. I see a lot of cappers that I respect making UCLA one of their largest plays of the night. I hope and pray that I am wrong on this one and that UCLA blows Washington right out of the water, but I just don't see it happening tonight.
0
BOL with your other plays. 
my friend!! 
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