Good morning everyone, my name is KaponoFor3, and I am a degenerate
(hi KaponoFor3)
Last night I wiped out all of my profits from a recent 20-4 run because I am undisciplined and didn't practice bankroll management. I was one of the public that got slaughtered on Gonzaga, UCLA, and Louisville. Even Oregon State, down one at the half, couldn't cover 16.5 and they got blown out in the second half and lost by 19. I chased pretty significantly on the OSU (2H) +9 play.
I'm not out of the game, just hurting the morning after. Anyone else have the same experiences, even if it wasn't last night?
Lurkers -- this is why you need to maintain bankroll management and not look to go for the knockout punch or big score.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Good morning everyone, my name is KaponoFor3, and I am a degenerate
(hi KaponoFor3)
Last night I wiped out all of my profits from a recent 20-4 run because I am undisciplined and didn't practice bankroll management. I was one of the public that got slaughtered on Gonzaga, UCLA, and Louisville. Even Oregon State, down one at the half, couldn't cover 16.5 and they got blown out in the second half and lost by 19. I chased pretty significantly on the OSU (2H) +9 play.
I'm not out of the game, just hurting the morning after. Anyone else have the same experiences, even if it wasn't last night?
Lurkers -- this is why you need to maintain bankroll management and not look to go for the knockout punch or big score.
Kapono, i feel your pain! Keep your chin up though brother, today is a new day and you can't do anything about last night except learn from it. I had 3 units on UCLA and 1.5 on Gonzaga myself and I never make a bet more than 1 unit usually. You are not alone, trust me.
With that being said, I think I need to practice bankroll management more. I have been really conservative lately with my bets, but last night I got wild and it cost me. But I won't let it get me down. There are plenty more games out there to cap and I'll be all over them!
Good Luck and keep that chin up man!
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Kapono, i feel your pain! Keep your chin up though brother, today is a new day and you can't do anything about last night except learn from it. I had 3 units on UCLA and 1.5 on Gonzaga myself and I never make a bet more than 1 unit usually. You are not alone, trust me.
With that being said, I think I need to practice bankroll management more. I have been really conservative lately with my bets, but last night I got wild and it cost me. But I won't let it get me down. There are plenty more games out there to cap and I'll be all over them!
kap, I got slaughtered on the same three, and St. Joe's. Fortunately, I saved my ass and broke even with Nwstrn, Davidson, Zona and Troy all covering. But, even those covers were . You'll get it back!
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kap, I got slaughtered on the same three, and St. Joe's. Fortunately, I saved my ass and broke even with Nwstrn, Davidson, Zona and Troy all covering. But, even those covers were . You'll get it back!
Kapono - keep you head up bro. Yesterday was bad for me too, but luckily my late night bailout plan worked and I only lost 1.7 units instead of 5.7. Vegas got back the money last night, that they lost on the UNC game. Manage that money bro, you can to it!
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Kapono - keep you head up bro. Yesterday was bad for me too, but luckily my late night bailout plan worked and I only lost 1.7 units instead of 5.7. Vegas got back the money last night, that they lost on the UNC game. Manage that money bro, you can to it!
btl -- "I have been really conservative lately with my bets, but last night I got wild and it cost me."
Same story on my side. I played WAY too big of a card last Saturday and went 13-2. I think that gave me a little bit of an inflated head and led me to think there was no way I would go below .500 with 9 plays or so. Terrible decision making that totally got away from everything I TRY to practice.
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btl -- "I have been really conservative lately with my bets, but last night I got wild and it cost me."
Same story on my side. I played WAY too big of a card last Saturday and went 13-2. I think that gave me a little bit of an inflated head and led me to think there was no way I would go below .500 with 9 plays or so. Terrible decision making that totally got away from everything I TRY to practice.
tmpeus -- that's my problem, I tried to pass a late night stimulus package, and it got bogged down in negotiations between the House and Senate, and then the House and Senate majority leaders decide to play footsies rather than discuss coming up with a joint bill. Results? No bill passing last night.
Time to step back, shake it out, re-adjust and get back on the horse.
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tmpeus -- that's my problem, I tried to pass a late night stimulus package, and it got bogged down in negotiations between the House and Senate, and then the House and Senate majority leaders decide to play footsies rather than discuss coming up with a joint bill. Results? No bill passing last night.
Time to step back, shake it out, re-adjust and get back on the horse.
lost $550 on Saturday, and $200 on Wednsday but its only for fun right- I think sometimes it can be horrible to get on a win streak, I start to get way too confident
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lost $550 on Saturday, and $200 on Wednsday but its only for fun right- I think sometimes it can be horrible to get on a win streak, I start to get way too confident
as we used to say in Quan Loi, Kapo, chin up, ass down. I know how hard it is to think that we are not masters of the universe and when we get on a roll, it's impossible. But I try to stay focused on the immutable fact that the best I ever do is about 55%. So if I have the big night or big week, I try to remember that it is all going to even out at some point.
I read your posts and you know what you are doing so you'll get back on track.
Best of Luck!
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as we used to say in Quan Loi, Kapo, chin up, ass down. I know how hard it is to think that we are not masters of the universe and when we get on a roll, it's impossible. But I try to stay focused on the immutable fact that the best I ever do is about 55%. So if I have the big night or big week, I try to remember that it is all going to even out at some point.
I read your posts and you know what you are doing so you'll get back on track.
kapano--kudos for the candid comments quite a soul bearing, for me its turtle like play--low volume,,days away, no big huge cards ever,,regardless of what looks good, everybody has a different roll and thats the way I like to move mine--always same size wager for me also,,again,,turtle like,,no big unit plays or giant plays ,,just tryin my darndest to hit close to 60 per cent- stay positive, trust your gut, and get this thing turned around
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kapano--kudos for the candid comments quite a soul bearing, for me its turtle like play--low volume,,days away, no big huge cards ever,,regardless of what looks good, everybody has a different roll and thats the way I like to move mine--always same size wager for me also,,again,,turtle like,,no big unit plays or giant plays ,,just tryin my darndest to hit close to 60 per cent- stay positive, trust your gut, and get this thing turned around
Yesterday is history. Make a note of what happened and move on. I actually have a notepad file on my computer with "Betting words of wisdom" which I look at before every bet I make lol so I don't make the same mistakes again.
I think the most important thing to do is not let yesterday impact on your capping of games today and beyond.
BOL
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Yesterday is history. Make a note of what happened and move on. I actually have a notepad file on my computer with "Betting words of wisdom" which I look at before every bet I make lol so I don't make the same mistakes again.
I think the most important thing to do is not let yesterday impact on your capping of games today and beyond.
Thanks for all the kind words, fellas. I started this thread partly for catharsis, and partly for lurkers who think that just because some of us have high posts counts that we are some sort of "experts" or something. Not at all -- I make plenty of mistakes, just like other cappers on here do.
I think that DoubleUp hit the nail on the head -- you string together a few strong weeks and think "shit if I can do this consistently, I should just be increasing my units and I'd be WAY ahead."
Flawed thinking, and its what bit me in the ass before. I need to remember the concept of regression towards the mean.
I think NBAFan offers some great advice re: betting words of wisdom. I'm gonna go create one of my own right now. Fan, any chance you could share with us what your words of wisdom say?
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Thanks for all the kind words, fellas. I started this thread partly for catharsis, and partly for lurkers who think that just because some of us have high posts counts that we are some sort of "experts" or something. Not at all -- I make plenty of mistakes, just like other cappers on here do.
I think that DoubleUp hit the nail on the head -- you string together a few strong weeks and think "shit if I can do this consistently, I should just be increasing my units and I'd be WAY ahead."
Flawed thinking, and its what bit me in the ass before. I need to remember the concept of regression towards the mean.
I think NBAFan offers some great advice re: betting words of wisdom. I'm gonna go create one of my own right now. Fan, any chance you could share with us what your words of wisdom say?
couple of Sat's ago when Iowa St couldn't keep it under 10, ND had a wide open 3 that would have covered but missed, been there just recently Kap.
I alwasy agree with most poepl on here that Vegas is really a lot like the stock market and this is the time I call Vegas having "market adjustment". The wise betters have been taking them to the cleaners and its times these small home favs are covering and cappers can call the game perfect to what it should bet but it doesnt work. Since you are a Pac-10 guy, just look at the those games and take advantage of the fact they are playing tomorrow. UCLA coming off a lose, ASu off big win, etc. Keep it to 4 games. If they all win and you feel like you liked another, put a regular size bet on. Money mngt is the main reason bettors can't do this forever. We don't treat it like a job cause then it wouldnt be fun. Keep ya head up bro, and regulars wagers will build it back.
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couple of Sat's ago when Iowa St couldn't keep it under 10, ND had a wide open 3 that would have covered but missed, been there just recently Kap.
I alwasy agree with most poepl on here that Vegas is really a lot like the stock market and this is the time I call Vegas having "market adjustment". The wise betters have been taking them to the cleaners and its times these small home favs are covering and cappers can call the game perfect to what it should bet but it doesnt work. Since you are a Pac-10 guy, just look at the those games and take advantage of the fact they are playing tomorrow. UCLA coming off a lose, ASu off big win, etc. Keep it to 4 games. If they all win and you feel like you liked another, put a regular size bet on. Money mngt is the main reason bettors can't do this forever. We don't treat it like a job cause then it wouldnt be fun. Keep ya head up bro, and regulars wagers will build it back.
We all have rough days Kap, just get refocused and you'll build it back up. I had a bad night also on the Zags, Buffalo, and the Bulls. Buffalo missed by a point and you already know about the Zags and Bulls. 0 for 3 and a drop of 3.3 units for me.
We'll come back no doubt about it.
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We all have rough days Kap, just get refocused and you'll build it back up. I had a bad night also on the Zags, Buffalo, and the Bulls. Buffalo missed by a point and you already know about the Zags and Bulls. 0 for 3 and a drop of 3.3 units for me.
one thing about flat betting is that it leaves you open to chasing in a very different way. For instance, last night i was 2-2 and decided to add Gonzaga 2H late to get some profit that i felt i deserved after the ILL/NW over took a bad beat. That didn't happen, unfortunately, and it just so happens that all i wanted last night was to bet the Arizona skills, but i didn't start the week as i was accustomed to so i added a few more plays to try to get back in the black. All 3 plays i added lost, so basically i'm gonna do my best to avoid ___ like that and just try to make a card and stay off everything else unless something really jumps out. I'm not sure how to quantify that, which makes it difficult, but nice thread kap
buzz-- su avatar es muy interesante (that's Spanish friends)
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one thing about flat betting is that it leaves you open to chasing in a very different way. For instance, last night i was 2-2 and decided to add Gonzaga 2H late to get some profit that i felt i deserved after the ILL/NW over took a bad beat. That didn't happen, unfortunately, and it just so happens that all i wanted last night was to bet the Arizona skills, but i didn't start the week as i was accustomed to so i added a few more plays to try to get back in the black. All 3 plays i added lost, so basically i'm gonna do my best to avoid ___ like that and just try to make a card and stay off everything else unless something really jumps out. I'm not sure how to quantify that, which makes it difficult, but nice thread kap
buzz-- su avatar es muy interesante (that's Spanish friends)
I guess I will share a brief story. Its not sad so there is hope.
Yesterday I was upset with myself for poor money management. I'd hit 2-3 plays and win them all then piss away 50% of the days profit on the late 10:30pm est game. I just couldn't help myself even though I knew I was going to lose.
I stopped that. What makes it worse is that I was winning all my 1unit wagers but the minute I put in a multi-unit wager I was losing. I took a step back... and studied one game in particular very hard. The Middle Tennessee State vs. Troy game. I chose this game for several reasons. I wanted to drop 10 units. The line was short for a home favorite. Troy lost by DD at MDTNST in December. The public would note this and jump on them not knowing Troy had won 8 SU and they're not the same team as before. Troy is going for the Sun Belt title. This game was WAY under the radar. If you note games/teams like UCLA, GONZAGA, LOUISVILLE... you'll not that they are legitimate contenders and will be in the tournament. Also EVERYONE and their momma was on them. We all know what happens. But I wasn't confident enough to fade them. I was down by 5 points at halftime and hit the like way to go dumbass you just blew 10units on some game without a proper boxscore. But they opened the 2H on a 20-4 run and eventually won the game by 6 points.
I made about 11units yesterday off 3 plays.
Troy -1 (+100) +10units
UCLA 1H -1 (-104) -1.04units
POR/GS Under 217 +1unit (NBA)
Now I don't recommend going big, thats not what I'm trying to say. I just grew balls and went hard on this play I was confident on. I would never, EVER throw 10units on a fav with a -175 ML. This play was special and I got lucky.
The end.
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I guess I will share a brief story. Its not sad so there is hope.
Yesterday I was upset with myself for poor money management. I'd hit 2-3 plays and win them all then piss away 50% of the days profit on the late 10:30pm est game. I just couldn't help myself even though I knew I was going to lose.
I stopped that. What makes it worse is that I was winning all my 1unit wagers but the minute I put in a multi-unit wager I was losing. I took a step back... and studied one game in particular very hard. The Middle Tennessee State vs. Troy game. I chose this game for several reasons. I wanted to drop 10 units. The line was short for a home favorite. Troy lost by DD at MDTNST in December. The public would note this and jump on them not knowing Troy had won 8 SU and they're not the same team as before. Troy is going for the Sun Belt title. This game was WAY under the radar. If you note games/teams like UCLA, GONZAGA, LOUISVILLE... you'll not that they are legitimate contenders and will be in the tournament. Also EVERYONE and their momma was on them. We all know what happens. But I wasn't confident enough to fade them. I was down by 5 points at halftime and hit the like way to go dumbass you just blew 10units on some game without a proper boxscore. But they opened the 2H on a 20-4 run and eventually won the game by 6 points.
I made about 11units yesterday off 3 plays.
Troy -1 (+100) +10units
UCLA 1H -1 (-104) -1.04units
POR/GS Under 217 +1unit (NBA)
Now I don't recommend going big, thats not what I'm trying to say. I just grew balls and went hard on this play I was confident on. I would never, EVER throw 10units on a fav with a -175 ML. This play was special and I got lucky.
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