Posted:
#1
Sides, 54-45, +7.85
Totals, 7-10, -5.50
Year, 61-55, +2.35
Getting into some heavy conference action after the New Year, so time to go to work…
Sacramento State at Northern Colorado
This game is sort of similar to Troy/South Bama where you have one team who has excelled in non-conference action while the other has struggled. But still, when you throw all of that junk out the window, you still have two teams are extremely similar within the conference and 9 points does not separate them. Yes, Sacramento State has started out to a pitiful 2-8 record while Northern Colorado has spurted to a 5-6 record. Yes, Sacramento State is horrible on the road, but they’re last road win came in this very venue last year. Each team split games last year, with each team winning on the road. Sacramento State doesn’t own a win against a D-1 team yet, I know. I’m well aware.
With all that, there still isn’t a 9 point difference warranted between these two teams. I actually have Sacramento State pegged at the #8 slot in the Big Sky, while I have Northern Colorado at the #9, dead last, spot in the Big Sky going into the season. I take a look at records, 2-8, 5-6, obviously something skewed right? Yup. Take a look at strength of schedules. Sacramento State, thus far, has played the #9 strength of schedule in the nation. Going on the road to Kansas State, Oregon, Pacific, San Fran, Stanford, and Marquette. Not the easiest places to go into and even try to compete. The average lines in those games was a +24, and they covered 4 of them. Northern Colorado’s won all 4 home games this year, which probably is a reason for the line where it is. Yet, those home victories come against Bowling Green, Colorado State, Johnson & Wales, and Denver, all losing squads. That equates to a #212 strength of schedule, THE WORST in the Big Sky.
When you can rank teams prior to non-conference play before the season even starts, and can be somewhat successful, you can look at teams and find value. You find teams who have over-achieved (which in this case Northern Colorado has I think), and you find teams who have under-achieved (nope, Sac St. does not fit into this category). Going into the season in the Big Sky, I had Kirk Archibeque as the most important part to the Northern Colorado team. He’s a senior leader who had averaged double figures in his first three seasons at UNC. He hasn’t played since the win at home vs. Denver due to a concussion, and still listed as questionable for this game tonight. The only other player worth mentioning on UNC’s squad is Sean Taibi. He’s a pretty quick guard who can create a shot whenever he wants, typically likes to shoot the 3ball. He’s been battling a knee injury all year, sat out a few games, and just isn’t the same player he was last year. He hasn’t started since the knee injury either, but I would expect him in the starting lineup tonight.
The main reason for the Sacramento State ranking over Northern Colorado at the bottom of the Big Sky is simply experience. They returned a junior guard in Loren Leath (he‘s leading the league in scoring), who is coming off of one of his worst games of his career at Marquette. I wouldn’t expect that to happen two games in a row. They also returned four seniors with a sh*t-ton of experience within conference play, and they’ve done nothing but get better from their freshman year. About the only concern I have taking the +9 is having a freshman at the PG slot, but his stat-line shows 10 ppg, 7 apg, 2 rpg, and 1.5 spg, and leads the conference in assists, and ranks towards the top in assist to turnover ratio, and that’s against the 9th toughest schedule in the nation. It is skewed a bit by the tough schedule, but only one of Sac St’s games have been decided by less than 9 points, a loss to Southern Utah. So, it’s possible that I’m picking the straight up winner, but I honestly feel Sac State has a chance here.
I’m getting the best player on the court coming off of one of his worst games in his career, a team who won in this exact same spot last year on the road, and a team who is just not nine points worse in my opinion.
5* Sacramento State +9
Fairfield at St. Peters
My #7 catching points at my #10 in the Metro-Atlantic while Farifield’s played a much tougher schedule thus far. I’m gonna wait for another point or two, don’t think I’m gonna get it, but I’m happy playing a PK in worst case scenario, but I sure as h*ll won’t make it a big play, nor will I lay chalk if it moves that way.
Still eyeing the SIU/Butler game, but those are the only three I’m interested in for Friday.
GL
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