Posted:
#1
I want to get this one started early so we all have time to make up our minds. As I type this the odds are roughly -260 on Novak and +210 on Tsonga. The favorite seems to have everything going for him in this match. His court coverage and blistering shots from both sides should be just enough to neutralize Tsonga's attacking style in the big points. JWT's serve and hands at the net have been better than any I've seen since a prime Pete Sampras (and I really don't think I'm exaggerating). But Novak will be more consistent from the back of the court, and I feel it is Tsonga who will struggle more to get into the other player's service games. The way Djokovic got Fed's serve back deep into the court and then proved who the better player was from the ground make him seem like the antidote to Tsonga's style. He won't be chipping second serves back and allowing Tsonga to run around his backhand the way Nadal did. Djok will be ripping those balls crosscourt and seizing control early in those points. It seems so simple doesn't it. Both guys can hold serve, but one guy is clearly the better returner.
My own knowledge and understanding of these guys leads me to believe Djokovic should win this matchup. Unfortunately, Vegas seems so confident he won't, that they are openly inviting me to back him at less than 1-3 odds. Let's think about the intangibles coming into this match. The first and most obvious factor is that Djokovic is ripe for a letdown. He just played his Super Bowl, out slugging God himself convincingly, and I cannot see him starting this match with the same level of intensity. There could be real value in a Tsonga 1st set bet.
There is just as clear an edge in experience for Djokovic. He has been to a GS Final, he has won tour events, and Tsonga has never played an ATP final. We don't know how he'll respond, but my money says he's got the stones to play his best. If anything, I'd say he has the advantage of being an underdog again. Djokovic is now expected to roll through this guy. That's quite a turnaround from 24 hours ago when he had everything to gain and nothing to lose. This is now Djoker's title to lose. Who the hell knows when his next great chance to win a slam will be? If this match gets tight, we may see Nole pulling his bull shit drop shots at the wrong moments and having some brain crap games. Tsonga on the other hand is expected to put on a show, but ultimately fall short against the more experienced, accomplished player. And guess what, that's precisely what has been expected of him in every match from the opening round. This role has worked beautifully for him, and why should it be different now? By no means will it be easy for him, but he has no reason to falter under the pressure now.
One final thought: the whole world saw Djokovic wear down and, to some extent, expose Federer for being somehow off form last night. The world (read: betting public) saw a man take down the most dominant force tennis has ever seen. They HAVE to be rushing out to back this guy at the current price. But let's not forget, if Djokovic gave Fed a beating, Tsonga gave Nadal a tennis lesson. Tsonga beat Nadal so comprehensively you could see the look of incredulity on Rafa's face. It's the look that Roddick has when he plays his best and Fed eats him up. It's the look that recognizes greatness. This is not a Baghdatis miracle run, this is an emerging super star in the game, and I don't feel comfortable laying chalk against him in any match. I've really enjoyed getting feedback in these threads, so please let me know and check for final plays later this afternoon.
My own knowledge and understanding of these guys leads me to believe Djokovic should win this matchup. Unfortunately, Vegas seems so confident he won't, that they are openly inviting me to back him at less than 1-3 odds. Let's think about the intangibles coming into this match. The first and most obvious factor is that Djokovic is ripe for a letdown. He just played his Super Bowl, out slugging God himself convincingly, and I cannot see him starting this match with the same level of intensity. There could be real value in a Tsonga 1st set bet.
There is just as clear an edge in experience for Djokovic. He has been to a GS Final, he has won tour events, and Tsonga has never played an ATP final. We don't know how he'll respond, but my money says he's got the stones to play his best. If anything, I'd say he has the advantage of being an underdog again. Djokovic is now expected to roll through this guy. That's quite a turnaround from 24 hours ago when he had everything to gain and nothing to lose. This is now Djoker's title to lose. Who the hell knows when his next great chance to win a slam will be? If this match gets tight, we may see Nole pulling his bull shit drop shots at the wrong moments and having some brain crap games. Tsonga on the other hand is expected to put on a show, but ultimately fall short against the more experienced, accomplished player. And guess what, that's precisely what has been expected of him in every match from the opening round. This role has worked beautifully for him, and why should it be different now? By no means will it be easy for him, but he has no reason to falter under the pressure now.
One final thought: the whole world saw Djokovic wear down and, to some extent, expose Federer for being somehow off form last night. The world (read: betting public) saw a man take down the most dominant force tennis has ever seen. They HAVE to be rushing out to back this guy at the current price. But let's not forget, if Djokovic gave Fed a beating, Tsonga gave Nadal a tennis lesson. Tsonga beat Nadal so comprehensively you could see the look of incredulity on Rafa's face. It's the look that Roddick has when he plays his best and Fed eats him up. It's the look that recognizes greatness. This is not a Baghdatis miracle run, this is an emerging super star in the game, and I don't feel comfortable laying chalk against him in any match. I've really enjoyed getting feedback in these threads, so please let me know and check for final plays later this afternoon.
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