Posted:
#1
This is such a tough match to call, and I'll be wagering much more on the women's final. But I've been watching the lines today at a few different books to try and gauge what the sharps might think. Fed's price has been as high as -320 and as low as -280. I haven't seen Djokovic far from +230 or +240. This may seem like an enticing price to back the world's #1, but make sure you're doing it for the right reasons.
Novak is in excellent form. He has made Hewitt and Ferrer look like completely ordinary guys. Even though he appeared to limp to the finish line against Ferrer, I strongly disagree with those who feel fitness will be a factor. Federer doesn't wear guys down physically. He won't have to play many 20 shot rallies, but when he has to, he'll be able to do it. I really believe the longer rallies will favor Nole tonight. He has all the tools of the guys who have upset Federer: a big serve, attacking style, and a heavy heavy backhand. He has the ability to open Federer up in cross-court backhand exchanges, and then hit winners down the line.
The greatest challenge to Novak will be to mentally believe he can beat Fed on this stage. The good news for him is he knows he's done it once before on a smaller stage. Federer has never looked this vulnerable at a hard court slam (being extended to 5 sets in the 3rd round, having angry outbursts with the chair) and I give Novak a real chance to win. He has all the tools, and, I believe, finally he has the belief. This surface has played well for the attacking, big hitters, and if Fed doesn't take chances early in points, he's simply going to get beat. I'm going to fade greatness tonight, but I do so with the understanding that Roger is the greatest at making adjustments under fire, and he seems to always do just enough to pull through in a match-up such as this.
I see it as an even match up, so I'll be taking around +260 for 1 unit. I'm also looking at Djokovic 1st set and Djokovic in 4 sets. I would caution guys looking at Federer in 5 sets. If he wins this match, I think it'll be Novak not rising to the occasion, and that means 3-0 to me. I would love to have someone talk me out of this in the next several hours, so let's get it going. Somebody let me know...
Novak is in excellent form. He has made Hewitt and Ferrer look like completely ordinary guys. Even though he appeared to limp to the finish line against Ferrer, I strongly disagree with those who feel fitness will be a factor. Federer doesn't wear guys down physically. He won't have to play many 20 shot rallies, but when he has to, he'll be able to do it. I really believe the longer rallies will favor Nole tonight. He has all the tools of the guys who have upset Federer: a big serve, attacking style, and a heavy heavy backhand. He has the ability to open Federer up in cross-court backhand exchanges, and then hit winners down the line.
The greatest challenge to Novak will be to mentally believe he can beat Fed on this stage. The good news for him is he knows he's done it once before on a smaller stage. Federer has never looked this vulnerable at a hard court slam (being extended to 5 sets in the 3rd round, having angry outbursts with the chair) and I give Novak a real chance to win. He has all the tools, and, I believe, finally he has the belief. This surface has played well for the attacking, big hitters, and if Fed doesn't take chances early in points, he's simply going to get beat. I'm going to fade greatness tonight, but I do so with the understanding that Roger is the greatest at making adjustments under fire, and he seems to always do just enough to pull through in a match-up such as this.
I see it as an even match up, so I'll be taking around +260 for 1 unit. I'm also looking at Djokovic 1st set and Djokovic in 4 sets. I would caution guys looking at Federer in 5 sets. If he wins this match, I think it'll be Novak not rising to the occasion, and that means 3-0 to me. I would love to have someone talk me out of this in the next several hours, so let's get it going. Somebody let me know...
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