So I was one of the few on the Halep over and Pavlyuchenkova to win a set yesterday and the reasoning was that I don't yet think that Halep deserves the Nadal-like respect she gets on clay. I figured she would have at least one big mental lapse in confidence in match and she did and that was enough to cash, although Pavs played scared most of the match.
In my opinion, Halep has mostly beaten up on mentally weak players, with the exception of maybe Mlad and Siegemund, and hasn't been tested a lot. In the matches that I have seen her opponent start to play well, she begins to make a lot of unforced errors and turtle up and frequently calls her coach for a pep talk at the changeover.
Kontaveit is playing incredible right now and really has been having a career year across all surfaces so far. It isn't just that she beat Kerber and Lucic-Baroni - it's how she beat them, basically hitting them off the court before they could even get their feet set.
I think this is a bad match up for Halep and there's a lot of value on any angle you could bet on this match. Kontaveit is one of the more mentally strong players I've seen on a usually pretty choke-friendly WTA circuit, and I don't think she'll give up very easily. She also has the precision and power right now to hit Halep around the court and to stay in these rallies longer. I think one of the reasons a lot of players feel intimidated by Halep on clay is that she gets to so many balls and they get frustrated that they can't ever hit past her. I really like Kontaveit to battle and if Halep is tested, I don't think she'll respond well.
I think this could be a repeat of the Stuttgart semifinal when Halep met an in-form and confident Laura Siegemund and lost in straight sets.
So, yeah, value on the moneyline, good value on the spread of +4.5 since this should be close even if Kontaveit loses, and you can even grab a low total of 20.5 games on the over at +100, which is also great odds if this goes three.
Sorry for the long write-up, but I've caught a ton of Kontaveit matches this year and really like this girl, so I thought I've get some observations out there to chew over.
So I was one of the few on the Halep over and Pavlyuchenkova to win a set yesterday and the reasoning was that I don't yet think that Halep deserves the Nadal-like respect she gets on clay. I figured she would have at least one big mental lapse in confidence in match and she did and that was enough to cash, although Pavs played scared most of the match.
In my opinion, Halep has mostly beaten up on mentally weak players, with the exception of maybe Mlad and Siegemund, and hasn't been tested a lot. In the matches that I have seen her opponent start to play well, she begins to make a lot of unforced errors and turtle up and frequently calls her coach for a pep talk at the changeover.
Kontaveit is playing incredible right now and really has been having a career year across all surfaces so far. It isn't just that she beat Kerber and Lucic-Baroni - it's how she beat them, basically hitting them off the court before they could even get their feet set.
I think this is a bad match up for Halep and there's a lot of value on any angle you could bet on this match. Kontaveit is one of the more mentally strong players I've seen on a usually pretty choke-friendly WTA circuit, and I don't think she'll give up very easily. She also has the precision and power right now to hit Halep around the court and to stay in these rallies longer. I think one of the reasons a lot of players feel intimidated by Halep on clay is that she gets to so many balls and they get frustrated that they can't ever hit past her. I really like Kontaveit to battle and if Halep is tested, I don't think she'll respond well.
I think this could be a repeat of the Stuttgart semifinal when Halep met an in-form and confident Laura Siegemund and lost in straight sets.
So, yeah, value on the moneyline, good value on the spread of +4.5 since this should be close even if Kontaveit loses, and you can even grab a low total of 20.5 games on the over at +100, which is also great odds if this goes three.
Sorry for the long write-up, but I've caught a ton of Kontaveit matches this year and really like this girl, so I thought I've get some observations out there to chew over.
Thoughts of contention - these two met on 3/26 on hard court with Halep sweeping her 6-3 6-0. In reference to Siegemund, I think that loss shook her enough to get her act together, as evidenced by her current run and sweeping sets against Siege in the recent rematch on 5/17. It's been hard for me to bet against Halep on clay this season in her current form (just won Madrid).
I don't particularly like this game to bet on in general, as there is a lot going for both players. I agree that the +4.5g bet would probably be the safest to play, but that 6-3 6-0 result scares me. Some players just don't match up well against others regardless of current form.
Any thoughts on that 3/26 hard match and why it will be different this time?
Thoughts of contention - these two met on 3/26 on hard court with Halep sweeping her 6-3 6-0. In reference to Siegemund, I think that loss shook her enough to get her act together, as evidenced by her current run and sweeping sets against Siege in the recent rematch on 5/17. It's been hard for me to bet against Halep on clay this season in her current form (just won Madrid).
I don't particularly like this game to bet on in general, as there is a lot going for both players. I agree that the +4.5g bet would probably be the safest to play, but that 6-3 6-0 result scares me. Some players just don't match up well against others regardless of current form.
Any thoughts on that 3/26 hard match and why it will be different this time?
Thanks for the extra input! That Miami match was the thing that jumped out at me too and so I looked at the stats to see what I could gather from it. One thing that really jumps out is that Kontaveit was only winning 14% of 1st serve return points, which is crazy low and the lowest she's ever returned in her last 52 games. Even when she lost to Sharapova 6-4 6-3, she still managed to win 21% of her 1st service return points and she wasn't in that game really at all. So that tells me that this was an absolutely horrible game for her on the return side.
To contrast that, Kontaveit won 55% of 1st return points against Kerber and 42% against Lucic-Baroni. And these are hard hitters.
Another thing that makes me think she has a shot is that the clay surface in Rome is a lot slower compared to Madrid and I think that'll give her time to get to more balls, as well.
I think you're right to stay away from the match if you don't feel confident, as I think there's zero value in betting Halep with all the juice you would have to play.
I would say the safest bet is the spread and possibly the over, but you can get nearly three to one odds on the moneyline, which for me is great value with her current form.
Thanks for the extra input! That Miami match was the thing that jumped out at me too and so I looked at the stats to see what I could gather from it. One thing that really jumps out is that Kontaveit was only winning 14% of 1st serve return points, which is crazy low and the lowest she's ever returned in her last 52 games. Even when she lost to Sharapova 6-4 6-3, she still managed to win 21% of her 1st service return points and she wasn't in that game really at all. So that tells me that this was an absolutely horrible game for her on the return side.
To contrast that, Kontaveit won 55% of 1st return points against Kerber and 42% against Lucic-Baroni. And these are hard hitters.
Another thing that makes me think she has a shot is that the clay surface in Rome is a lot slower compared to Madrid and I think that'll give her time to get to more balls, as well.
I think you're right to stay away from the match if you don't feel confident, as I think there's zero value in betting Halep with all the juice you would have to play.
I would say the safest bet is the spread and possibly the over, but you can get nearly three to one odds on the moneyline, which for me is great value with her current form.
Oh, and I'm also still trying to figure out whether Halep's recent run is a little fool's gold or not. I don't think much of her opponents, outside of Siegemund and Mladenovic in the Madrid final, which was the hardest she's had to work this clay season.
Vandeweghe, Sevastova, Kristyna Pliskova, Konta, Strycova - these aren't exactly players that come to mind when you think good clay courters or strong mental players.
So I don't know what the answer is, but I think there's a happy medium where Halep is playing great and she also hasn't had to play great competition. Sometimes that can fool you as a player when you run up against someone who will match you shot for shot...
Also, that Lucic-Baroni match really convinced me of Kontaveit's form. I had a bet on the over thinking it would be a battle and Lucic-Baroni never had a chance.
Oh, and I'm also still trying to figure out whether Halep's recent run is a little fool's gold or not. I don't think much of her opponents, outside of Siegemund and Mladenovic in the Madrid final, which was the hardest she's had to work this clay season.
Vandeweghe, Sevastova, Kristyna Pliskova, Konta, Strycova - these aren't exactly players that come to mind when you think good clay courters or strong mental players.
So I don't know what the answer is, but I think there's a happy medium where Halep is playing great and she also hasn't had to play great competition. Sometimes that can fool you as a player when you run up against someone who will match you shot for shot...
Also, that Lucic-Baroni match really convinced me of Kontaveit's form. I had a bet on the over thinking it would be a battle and Lucic-Baroni never had a chance.
Oh, and I'm also still trying to figure out whether Halep's recent run is a little fool's gold or not. I don't think much of her opponents, outside of Siegemund and Mladenovic in the Madrid final, which was the hardest she's had to work this clay season.
Vandeweghe, Sevastova, Kristyna Pliskova, Konta, Strycova - these aren't exactly players that come to mind when you think good clay courters or strong mental players.
So I don't know what the answer is, but I think there's a happy medium where Halep is playing great and she also hasn't had to play great competition. Sometimes that can fool you as a player when you run up against someone who will match you shot for shot...
Also, that Lucic-Baroni match really convinced me of Kontaveit's form. I had a bet on the over thinking it would be a battle and Lucic-Baroni never had a chance.
Thanks for the writeup. Halep confirmed to me she's in top form by beating Mladonvic after losing a tie break. Who knows maybe it was a fluke.
Oh, and I'm also still trying to figure out whether Halep's recent run is a little fool's gold or not. I don't think much of her opponents, outside of Siegemund and Mladenovic in the Madrid final, which was the hardest she's had to work this clay season.
Vandeweghe, Sevastova, Kristyna Pliskova, Konta, Strycova - these aren't exactly players that come to mind when you think good clay courters or strong mental players.
So I don't know what the answer is, but I think there's a happy medium where Halep is playing great and she also hasn't had to play great competition. Sometimes that can fool you as a player when you run up against someone who will match you shot for shot...
Also, that Lucic-Baroni match really convinced me of Kontaveit's form. I had a bet on the over thinking it would be a battle and Lucic-Baroni never had a chance.
Thanks for the writeup. Halep confirmed to me she's in top form by beating Mladonvic after losing a tie break. Who knows maybe it was a fluke.
You forgot she won Madrid just because Mladenovic got injured!! I can't forget the panic in Halep face when Mladenovic keep on fighting and won the second set with a low back injury!!!! Halep is sooooooo overvalued.. She's mentally and phisically weak.
You forgot she won Madrid just because Mladenovic got injured!! I can't forget the panic in Halep face when Mladenovic keep on fighting and won the second set with a low back injury!!!! Halep is sooooooo overvalued.. She's mentally and phisically weak.
Whoever said Halep beating Plistova was no biggie needs to re-watch the sport of Tennis. Plistova is absolutely dominating this tournament and she got crushed by Halep. This one will be won in straight sets and the spread will probably be covered. Halep -1.5 sets for me is the strong play.
Whoever said Halep beating Plistova was no biggie needs to re-watch the sport of Tennis. Plistova is absolutely dominating this tournament and she got crushed by Halep. This one will be won in straight sets and the spread will probably be covered. Halep -1.5 sets for me is the strong play.
Whoever said Halep beating Plistova was no biggie needs to re-watch the sport of Tennis. Plistova is absolutely dominating this tournament and she got crushed by Halep. This one will be won in straight sets and the spread will probably be covered. Halep -1.5 sets for me is the strong play.
If you're talking about the most recent match, that was the other Pliskova. Karolina is the one still in this tournament and she's never played Halep on clay before.
Whoever said Halep beating Plistova was no biggie needs to re-watch the sport of Tennis. Plistova is absolutely dominating this tournament and she got crushed by Halep. This one will be won in straight sets and the spread will probably be covered. Halep -1.5 sets for me is the strong play.
If you're talking about the most recent match, that was the other Pliskova. Karolina is the one still in this tournament and she's never played Halep on clay before.
The second set was more what I was looking for from Kontaveit. Just think nerves + perfect Halep play put her too far down before she found her form.
Still stand by the bets and would much rather prefer betting a half unit on the Kontaveit ML and losing than betting big on the Halep ML and losing, so it is what it is.
The second set was more what I was looking for from Kontaveit. Just think nerves + perfect Halep play put her too far down before she found her form.
Still stand by the bets and would much rather prefer betting a half unit on the Kontaveit ML and losing than betting big on the Halep ML and losing, so it is what it is.
Just as a look ahead though, I would expect Halep to make the final in Rome now, but I would say that whoever comes out of the bottom part of that draw - Muguruza/Williams/Svitolina/Pliskova has a great chance at beating her and will probably be at an underdog price considering her form and dominance so far on clay.
Just as a look ahead though, I would expect Halep to make the final in Rome now, but I would say that whoever comes out of the bottom part of that draw - Muguruza/Williams/Svitolina/Pliskova has a great chance at beating her and will probably be at an underdog price considering her form and dominance so far on clay.
I am really liking this girl Pliskova. That's why when I thought you said that wasn't a big win from Halep, I was so confused. I had to look it up and see there was a 2nd Pliskova on the WTA Tour lol. I absolutely wanted to fire a big number on her yesterday but went light, instead putting more on the over thinking could be tough match and it cost me. I am going big on her today at -1.5 games, she looks to be in top form and really has a great game for this surface.
I am really liking this girl Pliskova. That's why when I thought you said that wasn't a big win from Halep, I was so confused. I had to look it up and see there was a 2nd Pliskova on the WTA Tour lol. I absolutely wanted to fire a big number on her yesterday but went light, instead putting more on the over thinking could be tough match and it cost me. I am going big on her today at -1.5 games, she looks to be in top form and really has a great game for this surface.
I am really liking this girl Pliskova. That's why when I thought you said that wasn't a big win from Halep, I was so confused. I had to look it up and see there was a 2nd Pliskova on the WTA Tour lol. I absolutely wanted to fire a big number on her yesterday but went light, instead putting more on the over thinking could be tough match and it cost me. I am going big on her today at -1.5 games, she looks to be in top form and really has a great game for this surface.
Except she doesn't have a great game for this surface cuz she doesn't like to run...
I am really liking this girl Pliskova. That's why when I thought you said that wasn't a big win from Halep, I was so confused. I had to look it up and see there was a 2nd Pliskova on the WTA Tour lol. I absolutely wanted to fire a big number on her yesterday but went light, instead putting more on the over thinking could be tough match and it cost me. I am going big on her today at -1.5 games, she looks to be in top form and really has a great game for this surface.
Except she doesn't have a great game for this surface cuz she doesn't like to run...
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