Defending Champion Kei Nishikori is back in Japan to attempt to win the
Japan Open for the third time in the last four years. Nishikori is a
stellar 14-5 at this event with 12 of those wins coming in the last
three years. Stan Wawrinka is the top seed with Gilles Simon and Richard
Gasquet rounding out the top four seeds. Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic,
Kuala Lumpur runner-up Feliciano Lopez and Grigor Dimitrov fill out the
rest of the top eight seeds.
Five seeds were dumped out in the opening round of this tournament in
2014. That included the top two seeds in Stan Wawrinka and David
Ferrer. The two previous years, just one seed lost in the opening round.
Back in 2011, there were three seeds who saw early exits. So it is a
bit more of a guess as to the seeds who could see early trouble. Being a
500-level tournament, you would expect a little bit better effort from
some. Still, you also have to identify the players who may be burned out
on the season or coming into the tournament in bad spots. With that in
mind, there are definitely some spots that could produce upsets with the
seeded players in round one.
#3 Gilles Simon
A definite danger spot for the Frenchman as he opens with Mikhail
Youzhny who has made it through qualifying to get to the main draw.
Simon did make the semifinals here last season, so there appears to be
somewhat of a comfort level. The third seed has not always performed
well in this stretch of the season though, so catching someone who
already has match play under his belt will be tough. Youzhny beat Simon
earlier this summer at the Rogers Cup in Montreal in the second round as
a qualifier. There’s a definite shot here.
#4 Richard Gasquet
A tough opener for Gasquet who draws Roberto Bautista-Agut. They met
early this year with RBA taking Gasquet to three sets in Dubai before
the Frenchman eventually won. Gasquet is another player who has not
stepped back into action since the U.S. Open. Bautista-Agut made the
semis in St.Petersburg with some reasonably good form. This figures to
be a tough one and there’s definite upset potential.
#5 Kevin Anderson
We haven’t seen Kevin Anderson since his career achievement of making
the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. He definitely needed a rest, but
that also means he stands a chance of being caught cold without a match
played in nearly a month. He draws Gilles Muller to open. Anderson won
one and lost one here last year as did Muller. Muller stretched Simon to
three sets in his loss. The time off will have helped his recovery,
but will the motivation still be with Anderson after what he has already
achieved? Serve as expected will be massive here. If Muller serves
well, the fifth seed could be sent packing.
Defending Champion Kei Nishikori is back in Japan to attempt to win the
Japan Open for the third time in the last four years. Nishikori is a
stellar 14-5 at this event with 12 of those wins coming in the last
three years. Stan Wawrinka is the top seed with Gilles Simon and Richard
Gasquet rounding out the top four seeds. Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic,
Kuala Lumpur runner-up Feliciano Lopez and Grigor Dimitrov fill out the
rest of the top eight seeds.
Five seeds were dumped out in the opening round of this tournament in
2014. That included the top two seeds in Stan Wawrinka and David
Ferrer. The two previous years, just one seed lost in the opening round.
Back in 2011, there were three seeds who saw early exits. So it is a
bit more of a guess as to the seeds who could see early trouble. Being a
500-level tournament, you would expect a little bit better effort from
some. Still, you also have to identify the players who may be burned out
on the season or coming into the tournament in bad spots. With that in
mind, there are definitely some spots that could produce upsets with the
seeded players in round one.
#3 Gilles Simon
A definite danger spot for the Frenchman as he opens with Mikhail
Youzhny who has made it through qualifying to get to the main draw.
Simon did make the semifinals here last season, so there appears to be
somewhat of a comfort level. The third seed has not always performed
well in this stretch of the season though, so catching someone who
already has match play under his belt will be tough. Youzhny beat Simon
earlier this summer at the Rogers Cup in Montreal in the second round as
a qualifier. There’s a definite shot here.
#4 Richard Gasquet
A tough opener for Gasquet who draws Roberto Bautista-Agut. They met
early this year with RBA taking Gasquet to three sets in Dubai before
the Frenchman eventually won. Gasquet is another player who has not
stepped back into action since the U.S. Open. Bautista-Agut made the
semis in St.Petersburg with some reasonably good form. This figures to
be a tough one and there’s definite upset potential.
#5 Kevin Anderson
We haven’t seen Kevin Anderson since his career achievement of making
the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. He definitely needed a rest, but
that also means he stands a chance of being caught cold without a match
played in nearly a month. He draws Gilles Muller to open. Anderson won
one and lost one here last year as did Muller. Muller stretched Simon to
three sets in his loss. The time off will have helped his recovery,
but will the motivation still be with Anderson after what he has already
achieved? Serve as expected will be massive here. If Muller serves
well, the fifth seed could be sent packing.
#7 Feliciano Lopez
This isn’t based on match-up with Lopez drawing Joao Sousa. Outdoors,
Sousa loses the mystique he has brought to some of the late season
indoor hard court tournaments. Still, Lopez is coming off an unexpected
long week in Kuala Lumpur that saw him make the final on Sunday. It will
be a quick turnaround for Lopez and a transition to the outdoor
conditions. Sousa has lost six of his last seven on the surface and the
Spaniard has been in good form the past two months. It’s a pretty
unlikely upset, but with fatigue a potential factor you have to look at
this spot.
#8 Grigor Dimitrov
This first round match-up will showcase two of the more inconsistent
guys on the season with Dimitrov drawing Benoit Paire. Dimitrov was
disappointing again as he lost to Benjamin Becker in the quarterfinals
in Kuala Lumpur last week. The new pairing with coach Franco Davin did
not seem to break Dimitrov of his very average form this season. Paire
retired in his opening match in St.Petersburg last month against Jerzy
Janowicz down a set and 3-0 in the second. No official word came if he
was injured or just being French. It was his first match since a nice
fourth round showing at the U.S. Open. It reaffirmed for most that you
never know what version of Paire will show up. Picking a winner here is
near impossible. They have split two career meetings with the last
coming in 2013. Neither played has much experience at this tournament.
#7 Feliciano Lopez
This isn’t based on match-up with Lopez drawing Joao Sousa. Outdoors,
Sousa loses the mystique he has brought to some of the late season
indoor hard court tournaments. Still, Lopez is coming off an unexpected
long week in Kuala Lumpur that saw him make the final on Sunday. It will
be a quick turnaround for Lopez and a transition to the outdoor
conditions. Sousa has lost six of his last seven on the surface and the
Spaniard has been in good form the past two months. It’s a pretty
unlikely upset, but with fatigue a potential factor you have to look at
this spot.
#8 Grigor Dimitrov
This first round match-up will showcase two of the more inconsistent
guys on the season with Dimitrov drawing Benoit Paire. Dimitrov was
disappointing again as he lost to Benjamin Becker in the quarterfinals
in Kuala Lumpur last week. The new pairing with coach Franco Davin did
not seem to break Dimitrov of his very average form this season. Paire
retired in his opening match in St.Petersburg last month against Jerzy
Janowicz down a set and 3-0 in the second. No official word came if he
was injured or just being French. It was his first match since a nice
fourth round showing at the U.S. Open. It reaffirmed for most that you
never know what version of Paire will show up. Picking a winner here is
near impossible. They have split two career meetings with the last
coming in 2013. Neither played has much experience at this tournament.
Draw Preview First Quarter: Stan Wawrinka (1)
Stan Wawrinka is your top seed in this quarter with Feliciano Lopez in
the bottom part of the quarter as the 7th seed. Wawrinka’s fitness could
be a question this week as he looks to shake off an ankle injury
sustained in the Moselle Open a few weeks ago. If healthy, you would
figure the Swiss can take care of Radek Stepanek in the opening round
and the draw could shape up well for him. He would have one of two
Japanese wild cards to contend with in the second round as Yoshihiyo
Nishioka takes on Tatsuma Ito. Oh, but there is this little thing where
Ito beat him at this tournament last year. Wawrinka has questionable
motivation in non Grand Slams and the status of the ankle is not fully
known. That could make this a lot more intriguing than it looks.
If he isn’t worn down from Kuala Lumpur, Feliciano Lopez has a
legitimate shot to go deep again this week. He opens against Joao Sousa.
A win there will get him one of two qualifiers, either Matthew Ebden or
Austin Krajicek. These are very winnable match-ups for the Spaniard. It
really will come down to how well his body allows him to play with that
quick turnaround.
Second Quarter: Gilles Simon (3)
Gilles Simon and Kevin Anderson are the seeded players in this section
of the draw. Simon may do well to get a win this week with a tough
opener against qualifier Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny has already beaten
Simon this year in straight sets at the Rogers Cup in Montreal. If he
survives the opener, the Frenchman would face the winner of Jiri Vesely
vs. Yosutaka Uchiyama. Vesely has a lot of match play on the Asian swing
already in outdoor conditions and could be a threat. For Anderson, his
biggest problem could be getting started. He’s been out of action since
the U.S. Open and faces big serving lefty Gilles Muller to start. The
winner of that one gets the winner of Jeremy Chardy and Sam Groth.
Chardy made the quarters here last year and beat Anderson in the second
round. There is a possibility that could be the same match-up against
this year. As such, this columnist would look for Anderson to be done by
the second round. This quarter could spring a surprise semifinalist with
Chardy or Vesely seeming the most likely.
Draw Preview First Quarter: Stan Wawrinka (1)
Stan Wawrinka is your top seed in this quarter with Feliciano Lopez in
the bottom part of the quarter as the 7th seed. Wawrinka’s fitness could
be a question this week as he looks to shake off an ankle injury
sustained in the Moselle Open a few weeks ago. If healthy, you would
figure the Swiss can take care of Radek Stepanek in the opening round
and the draw could shape up well for him. He would have one of two
Japanese wild cards to contend with in the second round as Yoshihiyo
Nishioka takes on Tatsuma Ito. Oh, but there is this little thing where
Ito beat him at this tournament last year. Wawrinka has questionable
motivation in non Grand Slams and the status of the ankle is not fully
known. That could make this a lot more intriguing than it looks.
If he isn’t worn down from Kuala Lumpur, Feliciano Lopez has a
legitimate shot to go deep again this week. He opens against Joao Sousa.
A win there will get him one of two qualifiers, either Matthew Ebden or
Austin Krajicek. These are very winnable match-ups for the Spaniard. It
really will come down to how well his body allows him to play with that
quick turnaround.
Second Quarter: Gilles Simon (3)
Gilles Simon and Kevin Anderson are the seeded players in this section
of the draw. Simon may do well to get a win this week with a tough
opener against qualifier Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny has already beaten
Simon this year in straight sets at the Rogers Cup in Montreal. If he
survives the opener, the Frenchman would face the winner of Jiri Vesely
vs. Yosutaka Uchiyama. Vesely has a lot of match play on the Asian swing
already in outdoor conditions and could be a threat. For Anderson, his
biggest problem could be getting started. He’s been out of action since
the U.S. Open and faces big serving lefty Gilles Muller to start. The
winner of that one gets the winner of Jeremy Chardy and Sam Groth.
Chardy made the quarters here last year and beat Anderson in the second
round. There is a possibility that could be the same match-up against
this year. As such, this columnist would look for Anderson to be done by
the second round. This quarter could spring a surprise semifinalist with
Chardy or Vesely seeming the most likely.
Third Quarter: Richard Gasquet (4)
Richard Gasquet is seeded fourth in this quarter in one half with Grigor
Dimitrov as the 8th seed in the other half. Both face early tests with
Gasquet opening against Roberto Bautista-Agut and Dimitrov facing Benoit
Paire. It would not be shocking to see one of the seeds out in the
opening round. There are some real danger men as unseeded players in the
rest of the quarter. Marcos Baghdatis will battle Fernando Verdasco for
the right to play the Gasquet-RBA winner. Nick Kyrgios or Alberto Ramos
Vinolas will be up in the second round for the survivor of
Dimitrov-Paire. This quarter looks wide open. If Gasquet can avoid the
first round upset, this could be his quarter to take as the match-ups
against potential opponents all line up in his favor. Keep an eye on the
Baghdatis-Verdasco winner though.
Fourth Quarter: Kei Nishikori (2)
Second seed Kei Nishikori opens with talented youngster Borna Coric.
Neither has played since Davis Cup action in mid-September when both
were playing on clay. Coric is one of those guys who really gets up for
the name players, so this might not be easy. Still, Nishikori has been
so good here in front of the home crowd that it would be hard to see
Coric coming through. A win would get Nishikori either Alexandr
Dolgopolov or Sam Querrey. Both have not been seen on court since losing
in the opening round of the U.S. Open. Dolgopolov pronounced himself
healthy via Twitter with some shots of himself practicing for Tokyo.
When motivated and switched on, the Ukrainian is tough to beat. With
Querrey not doing much this year, Dolgopolov might have the slight
motivation edge.
On the other side, Marin Cilic is seeded 6th and looked healthy in
Shenzhen last week despite losing in the semifinals to Guillermo
Garcia-Lopez. He opens against Donald Young who made it through
qualifying. It’s been four years since they last met at the Australian
Open. Cilic demolished Young in straight sets then. Young needs some of
that U.S. Open swagger to aid this cause, but Cilic looks to still be a
bit too much for him on foreign soil.
The winner there gets Bernard Tomic or Steve Johnson. Johnson goes
for the hat trick on the Aussie this season with two wins over him
already. One came in Halle on grass and the other on a hard court in
Washington, D.C. The American made the quarters here last year and would
be expected to at least get past Tomic in the opening round. Should
Tomic avoid the hat trick though, he did beat Cilic this summer on a
similar surface which makes Cilic prone to a potential second round
upset. If seeds hold however, it would be another Nishikori-Cilic clash.
Nishikori beat him at the Citi Open earlier in the year. Nishikori
still looks the man to beat here.
Third Quarter: Richard Gasquet (4)
Richard Gasquet is seeded fourth in this quarter in one half with Grigor
Dimitrov as the 8th seed in the other half. Both face early tests with
Gasquet opening against Roberto Bautista-Agut and Dimitrov facing Benoit
Paire. It would not be shocking to see one of the seeds out in the
opening round. There are some real danger men as unseeded players in the
rest of the quarter. Marcos Baghdatis will battle Fernando Verdasco for
the right to play the Gasquet-RBA winner. Nick Kyrgios or Alberto Ramos
Vinolas will be up in the second round for the survivor of
Dimitrov-Paire. This quarter looks wide open. If Gasquet can avoid the
first round upset, this could be his quarter to take as the match-ups
against potential opponents all line up in his favor. Keep an eye on the
Baghdatis-Verdasco winner though.
Fourth Quarter: Kei Nishikori (2)
Second seed Kei Nishikori opens with talented youngster Borna Coric.
Neither has played since Davis Cup action in mid-September when both
were playing on clay. Coric is one of those guys who really gets up for
the name players, so this might not be easy. Still, Nishikori has been
so good here in front of the home crowd that it would be hard to see
Coric coming through. A win would get Nishikori either Alexandr
Dolgopolov or Sam Querrey. Both have not been seen on court since losing
in the opening round of the U.S. Open. Dolgopolov pronounced himself
healthy via Twitter with some shots of himself practicing for Tokyo.
When motivated and switched on, the Ukrainian is tough to beat. With
Querrey not doing much this year, Dolgopolov might have the slight
motivation edge.
On the other side, Marin Cilic is seeded 6th and looked healthy in
Shenzhen last week despite losing in the semifinals to Guillermo
Garcia-Lopez. He opens against Donald Young who made it through
qualifying. It’s been four years since they last met at the Australian
Open. Cilic demolished Young in straight sets then. Young needs some of
that U.S. Open swagger to aid this cause, but Cilic looks to still be a
bit too much for him on foreign soil.
The winner there gets Bernard Tomic or Steve Johnson. Johnson goes
for the hat trick on the Aussie this season with two wins over him
already. One came in Halle on grass and the other on a hard court in
Washington, D.C. The American made the quarters here last year and would
be expected to at least get past Tomic in the opening round. Should
Tomic avoid the hat trick though, he did beat Cilic this summer on a
similar surface which makes Cilic prone to a potential second round
upset. If seeds hold however, it would be another Nishikori-Cilic clash.
Nishikori beat him at the Citi Open earlier in the year. Nishikori
still looks the man to beat here.
What you think about Coric vs Nishi over 20.5 games? I dont see Coric winning by any means but I do feel he can hang, possibly have at least one tie breaker
What you think about Coric vs Nishi over 20.5 games? I dont see Coric winning by any means but I do feel he can hang, possibly have at least one tie breaker
That is a tough call. Really depends on Nishikori to me. If he is serving well, then I would expect him to break Coric down more quickly on serve and it could go under. If Kei is just so-so then it's definite possibility. Don't see a big edge either way really.
That is a tough call. Really depends on Nishikori to me. If he is serving well, then I would expect him to break Coric down more quickly on serve and it could go under. If Kei is just so-so then it's definite possibility. Don't see a big edge either way really.
He was fine at the U.S. Open. He came in from a calf issue. He just played poorly against Paire.
I'd like Coric better if he had a match under his belt to have an edge on Nishikori. With both coming in off a long layoff, it's tough to know how they will come in - but NIshikori is extremely comfortable at this tournament, so it'll be tough on Coric IMO.
He was fine at the U.S. Open. He came in from a calf issue. He just played poorly against Paire.
I'd like Coric better if he had a match under his belt to have an edge on Nishikori. With both coming in off a long layoff, it's tough to know how they will come in - but NIshikori is extremely comfortable at this tournament, so it'll be tough on Coric IMO.
He was fine at the U.S. Open. He came in from a calf issue. He just played poorly against Paire.
I'd like Coric better if he had a match under his belt to have an edge on Nishikori. With both coming in off a long layoff, it's tough to know how they will come in - but NIshikori is extremely comfortable at this tournament, so it'll be tough on Coric IMO.
Agreed. Tough to get a read with both having layoffs. I understand the Nishi at home angle...but I don't know that there's such an incredible talent gap that Coric should be +550
He was fine at the U.S. Open. He came in from a calf issue. He just played poorly against Paire.
I'd like Coric better if he had a match under his belt to have an edge on Nishikori. With both coming in off a long layoff, it's tough to know how they will come in - but NIshikori is extremely comfortable at this tournament, so it'll be tough on Coric IMO.
Agreed. Tough to get a read with both having layoffs. I understand the Nishi at home angle...but I don't know that there's such an incredible talent gap that Coric should be +550
Agreed. Tough to get a read with both having layoffs. I understand the Nishi at home angle...but I don't know that there's such an incredible talent gap that Coric should be +550
Books have been setting lines like that for years to entice money on the dog or make it useless to bet on the favorite. Coric is still young & it's his first "full" season where mental fatigue may or may not be an issue.
Agreed. Tough to get a read with both having layoffs. I understand the Nishi at home angle...but I don't know that there's such an incredible talent gap that Coric should be +550
Books have been setting lines like that for years to entice money on the dog or make it useless to bet on the favorite. Coric is still young & it's his first "full" season where mental fatigue may or may not be an issue.
Books have been setting lines like that for years to entice money on the dog or make it useless to bet on the favorite. Coric is still young & it's his first "full" season where mental fatigue may or may not be an issue.
Oh I know, I've won many and lost many. But nobody is going to tell me Nishi based off pure talent is better than Coric. When "mental fatigue" may be the only thing standing in the way...+550 is always worth it in my mind. Current form is a wash, maybe even a slight edge to Coric with whatever injury Nishi was trying to play through in NY.
Both get to a lot of balls, both will be in each others service games. So +5 and +550 was worth it in my mind.
Books have been setting lines like that for years to entice money on the dog or make it useless to bet on the favorite. Coric is still young & it's his first "full" season where mental fatigue may or may not be an issue.
Oh I know, I've won many and lost many. But nobody is going to tell me Nishi based off pure talent is better than Coric. When "mental fatigue" may be the only thing standing in the way...+550 is always worth it in my mind. Current form is a wash, maybe even a slight edge to Coric with whatever injury Nishi was trying to play through in NY.
Both get to a lot of balls, both will be in each others service games. So +5 and +550 was worth it in my mind.
Only thing Coric needs to work on is that 1st serve. He's having to spin the ball a bit more to get it in consistently...and Nishi is having a field day on it for the most part.
The few he's hit his spot with he's gone on to dictate the point. Def gonna be a threat when he fills into his body a bit. You can tell some straight power is lacking to get some easy put away points....but his movement and variety have made up for it thus far.
Should be an interesting 3rd set as thats where it seems this is heading.
Only thing Coric needs to work on is that 1st serve. He's having to spin the ball a bit more to get it in consistently...and Nishi is having a field day on it for the most part.
The few he's hit his spot with he's gone on to dictate the point. Def gonna be a threat when he fills into his body a bit. You can tell some straight power is lacking to get some easy put away points....but his movement and variety have made up for it thus far.
Should be an interesting 3rd set as thats where it seems this is heading.
And experience won out. Coric just needs to work on the 1st serve and a bit more power in his ground strokes. Nishi didn't serve particularly well, but Coric's lack of power killed his chance.
And experience won out. Coric just needs to work on the 1st serve and a bit more power in his ground strokes. Nishi didn't serve particularly well, but Coric's lack of power killed his chance.
Nice hits for those on that Coric over. Yeah I agree on the serving because that is exactly what I have noticed when he plays Top 20 players. They break his serve down way too easily. Should come with improved strength and conditioning but on hard courts right now that is a bit of a liability for him,
Any time you win with Fognini is like Christmas and your Birthday coupled with a bachelor party.
Nice hits for those on that Coric over. Yeah I agree on the serving because that is exactly what I have noticed when he plays Top 20 players. They break his serve down way too easily. Should come with improved strength and conditioning but on hard courts right now that is a bit of a liability for him,
Any time you win with Fognini is like Christmas and your Birthday coupled with a bachelor party.
Little disappointed with Garcia-Lopez after he went up an early break in the 2nd, but a good start to the week at least with a couple of wins. Will be looking over futures prices today before matches kick back in tonight.
Little disappointed with Garcia-Lopez after he went up an early break in the 2nd, but a good start to the week at least with a couple of wins. Will be looking over futures prices today before matches kick back in tonight.
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