Dating all the way back to 1972, Tokyo has become a very much regular event on the ATP World Tour calendar. This tournament has always yielded some very high ranked champions, and since 2006 titles have been claimed by Federer, Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, Nadal, Murray, Del Potro and home sweetheart Nishikori (2) in 2012 and 2014. The field is quite strong yet again, with Wawrinka, Simon. Anderson, Dimitrov, Gasquet, Cilic and Nishikori the 8 seeds.
#1 Stan Wawrinka (4-3 record @ Tokyo)
Tough to tell where Stan's head is at the moment, he defeated Dustin Brown in 3 in Metz before pulling out with injury. He fell to Tatsumo Ito in the 1st round last year and will face a wily old customer this time round in Radek Stepanek, before a possible rematch with Ito in the 2nd round. He's never gotten past the Quarter Final stage here and could face an in-form Feliciano Lopez should he get there.If he gets through the first round he may get into his stride here. As always though, stay aware when betting on Stan outside the Slam.
#2 Kei Nishikori (14-5 record @ Tokyo)
Difficult draw for the home hope, who is looking for his 3rd Tokyo title. He opens versus Coric, followed by Dolgopolov/Querrey and more than likely a matchup against Cilic in the Quarter Final. It'll be a long and draining week if Kei wants to please the home crowd yet again. Despite the tough draw Nishikori should never be wrote off playing in his home tournament, having only lost 1 match here in the last 3 years.
#3 Gilles Simon (4-3 record @ Tokyo)
Simon had Tsonga on the ropes a week ago during the Metz final, only to come undone when a couple of net cords went against him. The 4-3 record is a little bit blindsiding, as he made the semi's here last year. He has a bye into the 2nd round where he will probably face Vesely, and shouldn't be posed too many problems there. He will more than likely face a massive server in the Quarter Final, with Muller, Anderson and Groth all on in his part of the draw, something no player wants to see. Difficult to tell how the Frenchman will do but if the effort is there, a 2nd ATP 500 final appearance wouldn't be beyond him.
#4 Richard Gasquet (9-4 record @ Tokyo)
If there are to be any early shocks this week, Gasquet crashing out could well be one of them. He hasn't played since the US Open and faces a tricky 1st round match against Bautista Agut, a semi finalist in St Petersburg a week ago. His record in Tokyo is excellent, a former finalist and semi finalist but those performances were in 2007/2008 and he hasn't played here since 2010, crashing out in the 2nd round the last 2 times in Tokyo. He will be vulnerable here and could face Nick Kyrgios in the 2nd round. The Frenchman is 0-2 in ATP 500 finals and difficult to see him causing any sort of stir this week.
#5 Kevin Anderson (1-2 record @ Tokyo)
Another potential upset here. Kevin hasn't played since a tremendous effort in the US Open, reaching the Quarter-Finals before fatigue set in against Wawrinka. Always a dangerous player on the indoor surface but he opens with a tough match against Gilles Muller. His record in Tokyo has been poor, with loses to Chardy and Lacko, both coming in the 2013 and 2014 tournaments.
#6 Marin Cilic (1-2 record @ Tokyo)
Cilic makes his first appearance in Tokyo since 2007 and opens against a qualifier. He will need to play twice tomorrow if he wants to win the Shenzhen title due to the rain delay, he'll need to recover quickly for his first round tie but he is fortunate that he'll face a qualifier. The draw gets considerably after this of course, with a tricky matchup against Tomic or Johnson. Should Cilic reach the final or win the title tomorrow, I'd expect the quick turnaround to catch up with him early next week.
#7 Feliciano Lopez (7-4 record @ Tokyo)
Lopez has continued an excellent season, reaching the final of Kuala Lumpur this week. He's a 2 time quarter finalist but these performances came back in 2002 and 2007 respectively. Pushed Nishikori for a set last year but he'll have a difficult first round tie against Joao Sousa, who's shown decent form on Indoor Hard over the last couple of weeks. Get through that one and he could have another good week but fatigue may play a part, a lot hinges on how much this final against Ferrer takes out of him tomorrow, and they have had some fierce battles on Hard Courts.
#8 Grigor Dimitrov (0-1 record @ Tokyo)
Record is not really relevant, his only appearance was 3 years ago when he came through qualifying before losing in straight sets to Juan Monaco. This year has been a real struggle for Dimitrov and it only got worse last week, losing to Benjamin Becker in straight sets. You get the feeling Dimitrov probably can't wait for the season to be over and start a fresh in 2016. He opens against Benoit Paire and this is probably the tie of the first round you'll want to avoid as anything can and probably will happen.
First Round Draw:
- Stan Wawrinka vs Radek Stepanek
- Yoshihito Nishioka vs Tatsuma Ito
- Qualifier vs Qualifier
- Joao Sousa vs Feliciano Lopez
- Gilles Simon vs Qualifier
- Jiri Vesely vs Yasatuka Uchiyama
- Jeremy Chardy vs Sam Groth
- Gilles Muller vs Kevin Anderson
- Grigor Dimitrov vs Benoit Paire
- Marcos Baghdatis vs Fernando Verdasco
- Albert Ramos-Vinolas vs Nick Kyrgios
- Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Richard Gasquet
- Marin Cilic vs Qualifier
- Bernard Tomic vs Steve Johnson
- Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Sam Querrey
- Borna Coric vs Kei Nishikori
Couple of fantastic first round matches, Baghdatis/Verdasco, Coric/Nishikori and Muller/Anderson the pick of them.
Will have my futures pick up when my sportsbook has the odds up.