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Author: [Tennis] Topic: Tips on betting tennis
TennisOZ send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 6/3/2012 1:08:59 AM

Look for stuff that most people won't know, use player twitter pages, google etc. The market is usually fairly accurate,the only way to beat it is to have information that most punters do not have.

Assume you know less than everyone else and go from there.

Keep notes on players and tournaments. Anyone can look at results. Know what really happened behind the results. For example recent Madrid clay court tournament suited big hitting stand and deliver players. Simply knowing this helps you vet results better.

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#27
Posted: 6/11/2012 6:32:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Professional1:

Sick volley by Mahut to save bp.


great tip!!!   


j/k buddy
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#28
Posted: 6/19/2012 9:40:41 AM
Hi there,
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#29
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:36:06 PM
Best tip is fade high ranked players that dominate only one type of court...you fade them when they play in courts that they dominate. Ofcourse you want ot make sure the opponent is decent but you can always find a few good bets like that in each tournament.
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#30
Posted: 7/8/2012 10:28:01 AM

I guarantee I make your article with my comment.

"Know the rules of your book"

Most books grade tennis wagers as "No Action" if a player retires during the match.

5 Dimes in particular, will grade tennis wagers if a set has been completed.

Some books say that all wagers have action. So be aware of the rules in case you are wagering on a match with someone who has been hampered by an injury or troubled with the flu.

As any casual fan can tell, the top 4 players own the ATP, so don't bet against Joker, Nadal, Fed, or even Murray prior to the semi's.

Non-Majors are a different story. Although you expect the same players to make the finals, it is more likely they will lose against a nobody due to the tour's ridiculous tournament requirements.

Don't panic when you bet on female tennis when your player gets broken. Break points are not as critical as in the males game due to varying factors. Your female player can easily get it back, compared to the men where there may be 1 break in 2 sets.

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#31
Posted: 7/11/2012 10:47:54 AM
Some great tips there guys. I'm a new tennis bettor myself so all this info is much appreciated. It's a tough sport to handicap, because either the odds are very low or if you want to play w/ handicaps you never know how much a player will really try. Although I find hc betting in best of 3 sets tournaments can be ok.
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#32
Posted: 8/4/2012 7:27:10 AM
Fade Serena in the non-majors when no one cares, especially after a big win when she decides to show up-suckers get no value when she wants to play like at Wimbledon or today at the Olympics but in the next few weeks, I'llbe  cashing big time at 10-1 in a US Open warm-up...hey Serena, you can't fool me-you could have been the greatest if you had 5% of Federer's dedication...
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#33
Posted: 8/6/2012 7:53:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TennisOZ:

Look for stuff that most people won't know, use player twitter pages, google etc. The market is usually fairly accurate,the only way to beat it is to have information that most punters do not have.

Assume you know less than everyone else and go from there.

Keep notes on players and tournaments. Anyone can look at results. Know what really happened behind the results. For example recent Madrid clay court tournament suited big hitting stand and deliver players. Simply knowing this helps you vet results better.

 

List of plyer twitter pages, some aren't particularly useful but some give some good insight. Even basic things like how lon ga player has been in the country can help you estimate a players motivation. This is something players tend to post about.

 

EG :"Just got to London and........"

If that is the say before they play you are thinking they don't care too much. If it a week before they play they are more likely to be taking the tourny there seriously.

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#34
Posted: 8/6/2012 7:55:45 PM

List here:

http://advantagetennistips.com/home/node/47

Anderson and Tipsy are two active players for a start.

As an example, last year tipsy posted about his food poisoning before losing as favourite to Lopez.

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#35
Posted: 8/11/2012 10:50:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TennisOZ:

Look for stuff that most people won't know, use player twitter pages, google etc. The market is usually fairly accurate,the only way to beat it is to have information that most punters do not have.

Assume you know less than everyone else and go from there.

Keep notes on players and tournaments. Anyone can look at results. Know what really happened behind the results. For example recent Madrid clay court tournament suited big hitting stand and deliver players. Simply knowing this helps you vet results better.


You mean like night club spotting? 
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#36
Posted: 8/30/2012 9:19:33 AM
Here is an article I wrote about betting Wimbledon for Doc's Sports a few years back. 

http://www.docsports.com/wimbledon-betting.html

Good luck!


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#37
Posted: 8/30/2012 9:22:58 AM
One more must stop if you are looking to reference previous head-to-head, surfaces etc. Apologize if someone has already posted didn't have time to read all the posts. Check it out it is worth it and updated frequently-best part is that initially it is a free database. How else would I know that Petrova is 4-1 head-to-head with Lucie Safarova

http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/
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#38
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:27:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Know who is a lefty, especially in the women's game,,,they are more often than not live dogs 

Try and follow as many tennis players personal websites, blogs, and twitter accounts,,,these can be pure gold when you least expect it to be,,,especially if they tweet they are not feeling well from last nights sashimi 

Can you please provide one instance in which this was applicable?
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#39
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:34:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OwenSixteen:


Can you please provide one instance in which this was applicable?
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#40
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:35:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by OwenSixteen:


Can you please provide one instance in which this was applicable?

Laura Robson back to back wins vs clijsters and Li Na is a huge dog 
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#41
Posted: 9/6/2012 8:37:03 AM
DO NOT MISS BARTOLI BENDING OVER!!!!

I watched her & Maria Wednesday and almost missed my dental appt!!
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#42
Posted: 9/19/2012 7:10:36 PM
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Anent
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#43
Posted: 9/30/2012 5:30:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AverageAllstar:

My one tip for you who think you can make money at tennis capping is this:

Learn to love the sport. People tend to do things well if they enjoy doing it . The more you like the sport, the more you'll get out of it, the more you'll understand it and the better your instincts will be in making your selections. There is a science and a statistics sheet to read but tennis isn't unlike capping any other sport. You make your picks with your head, but you bet on your gut.


Well said.
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#44
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:01:31 AM
what if the line is at 23 is it good to bet the over?
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#45
Posted: 10/21/2012 12:34:02 PM
Never go ALL IN betting favorites in a 250 ATP level event,,,no matter how easy it looks 
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#46
Posted: 10/31/2012 8:11:27 PM
Hi guys. Please share ideas about the way of betting u like.
For instance, I prefer online betting on tennis, mainly on games. It's not that difficult to predict the winner of each game, especially if players have a good serve's speed and accuracy. 
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#47
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:37:27 PM
be careful betting on a guy who has had to play 3 qualifying matches to make it to the main draw, he could be out of gas for his first round match, watched harrison vs robredo yesterday and harrison had nothing in the tank
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#48
Posted: 1/8/2013 6:06:58 PM
Monfils is a headcase
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#49
Posted: 1/9/2013 9:04:09 AM
It seems the same questions pop up again and again so hopefully this will help a little. I'm obviously not going to put on a public forum everything I use to try to pick winners but here are some basics that may be a good start for someone with limited tennis betting knowledge. 

1. The lines in tournaments become sharper as the week progresses. Seems obvious enough as linesmen will be able to gauge a player's form and motivation as the week goes on and there are fewer players to focus on, but I repeatedly see people upping their stakes in 'big' matches. If you think about it logically, as the field shrinks, the weaker players are usually gone which narrows the gap between two opponents. Why suddenly up your stakes on a match when there's actually a better possibility of either playing winning?

2. Line movement and beating the closing number doesn't carry the same importance in tennis as it does in other sports. Lines are easily manipulated by books to encourage steam and name chasers and because the markets for smaller tournaments are considerably smaller than in a Slam, it doesn't take a lot of money to move a line. Cap your match, determine which player you think will win and assign a % chance of winning and THEN check out the lines. If the price you can get implies a higher chance of winning than your %, place the bet. It's a very simple theory and it works yet people seem to get stuck on this time and time again.

3. There are fixes in tennis and there probably always will be. There are also reverse fixes where an individual or group is toying with the lines in order to drive up the price on a dog as well as the market manipulation by the books I mentioned earlier. This is just a fact of tennis betting and the best advice I can give you is almost a repeat of #2 - When you see lines start to plummet, DO NOT JUMP ON BOARD. If you've placed your bet before the heavy movement started, you may want to cash out if it's moved in your favour to guarantee yourself a profit no matter how small and save yourself the grief. If the line has moved against you quickly, I'd suggest just sticking with your original bet and crossing your fingers that your player pulls it out. Many times people have laid heavy chalk to jump off a bet that looks like a sure loss only to see their original player win, costing them a lot of money in the end.

4. Live betting is a great tool for tennis but it's also a dangerous one. Tennis isn't like other sports where you can gradually see a momentum shift to one team. There are times when a player tanks a set to conserve energy for the next one. There are other times when a player looks like they have the match won but goes on to lose because they've used all of their energy to get that far and they start to commit unforced errors or lose the ability to serve. Be very careful with live betting, especially if you're trying to chase your losses on your initial bet. And don't ever live bet if you're just looking at a scoreboard. Stats and scorelines can be deceiving - they don't factor in how a player is moving, if they look fatigued, if that medical timeout was legit or was a stalling tactic or if a player is starting to become unhinged mentally between points. You can't underestimate the value of watching the match live.

5. You need to invest the time to learn about individual players and try to determine their motivation for each tournament and even each match. Go to the ATP website or even Wikipedia and learn about the point system that's used to determine a player's ranking. Learn what a protected ranking is and why it can be an important factor in a match. Google the hell out of a player before you put money on them - you'll find the most amazing things straight from a player's mouth on their own website, on Twitter or Facebook, and in interviews that you need to Google Translate from a foreign language (players seem to be more forthright when talking to their home media). Are players double partners? Are they from the same country? Do they need to protect points or is the tournament somewhat meaningless other than possibly collecting a paycheck? These are just a few of 100+ questions you could literally focus on if you want to have your best shot at picking a winner. But even if you don't find all the answers you need, you should still have a few more tools to help you to determine how much, if any, you should consider risking on a player in any given match.
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#50
Posted: 1/21/2013 11:01:22 PM
In my entire life I have never read a forum thread as valuable in so many ways. 

Thank you all for posting and providing valuable sites. Amazing thread...the best of the net. 

I wish we would have these tips threads in all sports.
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