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Author: [Tennis] Topic: Federer looks like "fool's gold" tonight..........
gridironguy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 1/25/2012 7:33:20 PM
so many of you backing Fed.  you are being fooled by the wins over Tomic and DP.  neither of those guys have the court coverage that Rafa has, and they gave Fed nice open looks at high shots with lots of open court to hit to.

there's a reason why Rafa has the BEST record vs. Fed of anyone on the men's circuit - it's because Rafa's game is Fed's kryptonite.  Rafa covers the whole court, does not make mistakes, and gives Fed fits.

Fed, approaching 30.5 yrs old, will do what he has done in almost every tourney since the 2010 aussie when he won it - which is to say he will have looked great until he reaches a player in the qtrs or semis (in this case semis), who is up to the challenge and then some.

i think MANY of you are going to learn a valuable lesson in tennis betting tonight.  if i'm wrong i'll admit it after the match, but if i'm right, God help you, 'cause i will rub it in for a long, long time 
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#2
Posted: 1/25/2012 8:27:46 PM
why would you rub in a loss

f'n loser
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#3
Posted: 1/25/2012 8:33:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by coolfool:

why would you rub in a loss

f'n loser


because some of the reasoning being given by Fed backers is not sound, and they need to learn a lesson, which is to not be fooled by fraudulent results against players not in the same league as Rafa.  Tomic is nowhere near ready for the spotlight and DP has been disappointing ever since he caught lightning in a bottle at the US Open in 09

people who cannot take criticism and "i told you so's" after making bad predictions and bets, all the while being so confident, should not be wagering in the first place


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#4
Posted: 1/25/2012 8:36:04 PM

Please explain why Nadal troubles Federer... am curious to whether you know the real answer

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Posted: 1/25/2012 8:42:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sparty444:

Please explain why Nadal troubles Federer... am curious to whether you know the real answer



many reasons. 

1) rafa has one of the best returns of serve in the gm, right behind Djoker, so when fed gets the serve going, especially out wide, rafa can return it with pace, then get back into center position very quickly because of his speed

2) rafa's backhand is a major weapon to go along with a heavy, heavy topsin forehand, fed cannot favor either side of the court.

3) back to rafa's speed, fed cannot use the dropshot which he loves, because rafa can run it down

4) consistency. fed comes at you in waves.  in rafa, fed faces a guy who does not beat himself, so fed's crisp groundstrokes and sound service which is underrated, are not as big a factor against rafa as against other guys.

5) mentally tough rafa.  fed thrives against guys who feel beaten before they even step on the court.  in rafa, you have one of the toughest guys mentally who has EVER played the gm

i can keep going, but please let me know if this was enough to show you that i know a little bit about this rivalry 
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#6
Posted: 1/25/2012 8:45:56 PM
You didn't mention the #1 reason and/or shot. The Nadal topspin forehand to the Federer backhand. Roger has major troubles with the high bounce to the backhand and Nadal hurts him with it often.
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Posted: 1/25/2012 8:45:58 PM
i can also talk about how fed loves to take groundstrokes off the middle waist to low chest range, but against rafa, the amazing topspin he creates makes the ball go up to head-high and above and fed cannot make as many offensive shots against those super high bouncers

rafa's hitting style keeps fed off-balance all match long
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Posted: 1/25/2012 8:46:34 PM
2 seconds after you said it, i just did.  again, there are so many reasons
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#9
Posted: 1/25/2012 8:47:46 PM

I think the reasoning you are seeing the reaction to the pricing that you are goes as follows:

- Rafa had a poor finish to last season
- He's been injured, significantly, to start this season
- He has publically stated he is fatigued mentally
- He has publically stated he will be taking an extended break prior to the French
 - This is not his best surface

Of course all of this is hear say. Rafa has looked phenominal so far, but these are painfully obvious reasons to not back Rafa.

On the other side Federer:

- Has not lost since the US open
- Destroyed Rafa the last time they played excluding the exibition match played in December for charity
- Is playing on his best surface
- Has not dropped a set this tournament.

Rafa could win. Federer could win. I don't really know why you would bet on this. But to say "Federer is a poor bet" or "Rafa is a poor bet" without the reasoning being solely based on price, is absolutely ridiculous.

I plan on watching, and hope you win your bet. Good luck.

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Posted: 1/25/2012 8:48:51 PM
you posted it:  1/25/2012 5:45:56 PM

i posted it:  1/25/2012 5:45:58 PM

it was one of the major pts, but not the biggest one.  every point i mentioned is HUGE
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Posted: 1/25/2012 8:52:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Horzy:

I think the reasoning you are seeing the reaction to the pricing that you are goes as follows:

- Rafa had a poor finish to last season
- He's been injured, significantly, to start this season
- He has publically stated he is fatigued mentally
- He has publically stated he will be taking an extended break prior to the French
 - This is not his best surface

Of course all of this is hear say. Rafa has looked phenominal so far, but these are painfully obvious reasons to not back Rafa.

On the other side Federer:

- Has not lost since the US open
- Destroyed Rafa the last time they played excluding the exibition match played in December for charity
- Is playing on his best surface
- Has not dropped a set this tournament.

Rafa could win. Federer could win. I don't really know why you would bet on this. But to say "Federer is a poor bet" or "Rafa is a poor bet" without the reasoning being solely based on price, is absolutely ridiculous.

I plan on watching, and hope you win your bet. Good luck.



you're getting a 25 yr old who is in good health who has the best record against FED of anyone on the circuit, and a guy who has beaten him in the biggest matches the last 5-6 times they have faced each other on ALL surfaces.  Fed is over 30 and has difficulty at this point in the tourney.  and if this is Fed's best surface, then why did not even make the final in 2010 at the us open, then 2011 aussie, then 2011 us open?  the last 3 hardcourt majors he does not make the final?

the aussie hardcourt is notoriously slow for a hardcourt surface, and this helps rafa a lot

your reasoning is very flawed

rafa is AT WORST a coinflip, at worst.  to get +140 or better is OBLIGATION sir
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#12
Posted: 1/25/2012 8:54:40 PM
The fact you didn't highlight it from the beginning tells me enough
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#13
Posted: 1/25/2012 8:57:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sparty444:

The fact you didn't highlight it from the beginning tells me enough


i am GOD
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Posted: 1/25/2012 8:59:17 PM
u of mich is the real school in mich.

mich st is for lousy students who could not get into UM 

even those of us who live outside of mich in warm weather climates with expensive real estate, know that mich st in east lansing is 2nd, maybe 3rd tier in mich.

oh yea, i am GOD
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Posted: 1/25/2012 9:06:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gridironguy:



i am GOD


No you're just an internet loser.
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Posted: 1/25/2012 9:38:08 PM
Rafa's record against Roger is 19 - 9.  However, 12 of those wins are on clay.  Roger has actually beaten Rafa twice on clay.  Take away those 14 clay matches and the record is 7-7 on all other surfaces.  I think you would expect a pick em line or even Rafa a small favorite as he "own's Roger."

Maybe not "FOOLS GOLD"???
We will know in about 12 hours!!!

GL, Rok
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Posted: 1/25/2012 9:49:45 PM
The fact that you are getting so much value in taking a guy that has dominated the other the past few years should be telling enough.

If this was a pickem, or Roger a slight favorite, I wouldn't llike Fed's chances.

At -157, it's pretty expensive for a guy that is supposed to get owned.

Keep in mind a lot of these guys are Federer fans, so in a way it's an entertainment bet.

If Fed makes the final, Djokovic will be almost a 3-1 favorite likely.

Oh yea, and you guys are sick if you can stay up and watch this match. It's in the middle of the night.


P.S. Rubbing a loss in the face of people is completely classless.
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Posted: 1/25/2012 10:08:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slamspurs:

The fact that you are getting so much value in taking a guy that has dominated the other the past few years should be telling enough.

If this was a pickem, or Roger a slight favorite, I wouldn't llike Fed's chances.

At -157, it's pretty expensive for a guy that is supposed to get owned.

Keep in mind a lot of these guys are Federer fans, so in a way it's an entertainment bet.

If Fed makes the final, Djokovic will be almost a 3-1 favorite likely.

Oh yea, and you guys are sick if you can stay up and watch this match. It's in the middle of the night.


P.S. Rubbing a loss in the face of people is completely classless.


i did not say Rafa would "own" Fed.  nobody owns fed in any given match, even if they win 3-1, because those are 3 tough sets to win.

i do believe that Rafa will be victorious yet again over the aging Fed
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Posted: 1/25/2012 10:25:13 PM

Isnt Rafa the fool's gold here at +145?  This guy's World #2 and Fed's kryptonite and yet he's the dog?  I was shocked when I saw Roger being -155.

Great thread griridonguy. I respect your opinions but I agree with slamspurs.  This is a fishy line.

GL

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#20
Posted: 1/25/2012 10:45:54 PM
RAFA
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#21
Posted: 1/25/2012 10:48:56 PM

federer -160 vs nadal   8-17 lifetime vs him   what a joke.   only a idiot would take nadal +130 vs someone he has owned his whole career

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#22
Posted: 1/25/2012 11:06:47 PM
Fed / Djoker rematch at the Aussie 
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#23
Posted: 1/25/2012 11:15:00 PM
well the good thing is if Fed wins, we won't have to hear from the fuckface anymore.
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#24
Posted: 1/26/2012 12:23:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gridironguy:



you're getting a 25 yr old who is in good health who has the best record against FED of anyone on the circuit, and a guy who has beaten him in the biggest matches the last 5-6 times they have faced each other on ALL surfaces.  Fed is over 30 and has difficulty at this point in the tourney.  and if this is Fed's best surface, then why did not even make the final in 2010 at the us open, then 2011 aussie, then 2011 us open?  the last 3 hardcourt majors he does not make the final?

the aussie hardcourt is notoriously slow for a hardcourt surface, and this helps rafa a lot

your reasoning is very flawed

rafa is AT WORST a coinflip, at worst.  to get +140 or better is OBLIGATION sir


haha since when is Nadal in good health???? He's 25 yes but he's already past his prime.

Federer is going to get it done and will be waiting for revenge against Novak.

7-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3
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Posted: 1/26/2012 12:45:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jarrett75:

well the good thing is if Fed wins, we won't have to hear from the fuckface anymore.


flattery will get you nowhere, son 
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