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[Tennis] Topic: Olga Savchuk vs Su-Wei Hsieh |
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TennisCapper |
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#1 Posted: 9/16/2009 9:06:17 AM
The odds are way off in this one.
The extremely talented Taiwanese needed a win in order to bring her confidence level back up after dropping countless positions in the rankings (she was number 78 in the world just 10 months ago and now she is not even in the Top 350) and the win came against Zi Yan in straight sets for her first round match.
I remember her playing in Aus Open in 2008 and she was a pleasure to watch, good serve, fantastic movement around the court, overall very solid ground strokes and nice mental approach to the game of Tennis, typical from Oriental fellows I would say who are very honest and hard workers.
Olga Savchuk rallied to victory winning against a semi-injured Srebotnik who has been out of the courts for most of 2009 due to a very bad shoulder injury. The match saw Srebotnik up 6-3 5-4 but most likely her not overall cured injury bothered her late in the match as she lost 7-5 6-2 the 2nd and the 3rd set. Clearly there was something wrong with her shoulder since she won just 25% of the points behind 2nd ball and since she lost 9 of the last 11 games played in that match after winning the first 11 of 18.
On this fast surface, Hsieh flat and quick strokes should have the advantage against Savchuk who has very ample movements for her strokes as she grew up on the Clay courts and today that still is her favorite surface (not a surprise she is just 23-27 on Hard Courts for her last 50 matches and she has a 50% Record for her career, while she does have a pretty good record on Clay).
I would expect the Taiwanese girl to be extremely motivated to make a run in this tournament in order to come back to the Tennis that she deserves, which would see her at least in the Top 100 and despite the pitiful run she has been in lately she gave some sort of life in US Open qualification Rounds losing to Barbora Zahalova Strycova a tight one, 6-4 7-6 saving 10 of 14 Break Points and winning a good amount of points behind 1st ball.
Great stats for her first round match against Chinese Zi Yan as well.
Su-Wei Hsieh is the underdog for I don't know what reason and she should take this match in easy fashion if she keeps her 1st serve % up like she did in her last 2 matches.
Too bad I didn't have video coverage for 1st round matches, I might have slammed this match pretty hard.
Su-Wei Hsieh (+122)
To win 3 Units
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Jarrett75 |
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#2 Posted: 9/16/2009 9:30:17 AM good luck, my book doesn't offer lines on this tourney.  |
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lordkaervek |
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#3 Posted: 9/16/2009 9:40:26 AM I see her at even money right now...already starting to drop? |
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Jarrett75 |
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#4 Posted: 9/16/2009 9:43:34 AM well seeing as how it was +122 and now you see it at even. What do you think?  |
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rod_steel |
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#5 Posted: 9/16/2009 9:47:34 AM T-Capper where are you from?
Good luck with this wager  |
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TennisCapper |
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#6 Posted: 9/16/2009 9:48:35 AM
Betfair is still +118
I know most of the people here are Americans and don't have the privilege of either one... Sorry! 
Even money is not a good deal.
Maybe play it for 1 unit only.
Thanks guys.
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TennisCapper |
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#7 Posted: 9/16/2009 9:49:42 AM
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#8 Posted: 9/16/2009 10:45:29 AM
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Mad_Skillz123 |
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#9 Posted: 9/16/2009 10:48:11 AM  girl Tetreault V+5 against Safarova???
i like her with the +5 games
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TennisCapper |
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#10 Posted: 9/16/2009 1:11:58 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123: TC what do you think about our girl Tetreault V+5 against Safarova???
i like her with the +5 games
Hey there big guy.
Tough to go against Safarova these days.
Please also be aware that Tetreault is 2-4 career against lefties and in the 4 losses she covered a spread of 5 games only once and that was back in 2006.
I wouldn't bet that.
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CRBlades2 |
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#11 Posted: 9/16/2009 2:18:40 PM i tailed you on this but cant find a score anywhere...any ideas? |
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TennisCapper |
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#12 Posted: 9/16/2009 2:19:15 PM
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CRBlades2 |
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#13 Posted: 9/16/2009 2:21:18 PM haha woops...on my betting site it said 11:00PST...must be PM. thanks. u feel confident about this one? |
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TennisCapper |
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#14 Posted: 9/16/2009 2:25:25 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by CRBlades2: haha woops...on my betting site it said 11:00PST...must be PM. thanks. u feel confident about this one?
Confident enough to bet it to win 3 Units. 
What price did you buy her at though?
If it is below +110 I would advice it for just a 1 Unit play and if the odds are between +110 and +120 I would advice to bet to win 2 Units.
Good Luck to us mate.
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CRBlades2 |
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#15 Posted: 9/16/2009 2:26:57 PM got her at +110 |
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caglarue |
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#16 Posted: 9/16/2009 4:48:42 PM Good luck TC  As I saw your thrad and read your write-up, I quickly decided to tail you. Hope we cash it...  |
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TennisCapper |
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#17 Posted: 9/16/2009 5:38:59 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by CRBlades2: got her at +110
Even though +122 and +110 look "similar" for one single wager the difference is that at +122 in a 100 matches scenario you need 3 less wins to break even (44.80 out of 100 instead of 47.62 out of 100).
This means that you can have a higher margin of error.
I know that on one single play it doesn't look like much but in the long run if you bet 1000 matches that would look like 30 matches and if you bet 1000$ per game that's 30 grands. 
I know you just care about this one now (!), but for future reference
This is why I advised a smaller wager with the odds dropping.
I give her 55% chance of winning which is -122 so at +122 it's a large wager for me however it would have become smaller as the odds drop (now she is at +115 almost everywhere I think) and as my % margin becomes smaller.
Hopefully this match wins and we won't care about this for this time! 
I hope this made some sense.
[Quote: Originally Posted by caglarue] Good luck TC As I saw your thrad and read your write-up, I quickly decided to tail you. Hope we cash it...
Thanks buddy. You are a good guy.
I am happy if you made some money betting my plays.
Since I started posting again and since I know some of you good guys are tailing me, I am more nervous during the matches 
Hopefully our girl will do what she is supposed to do!!!
I probably will be asleep tomorrow for the match so I hope to wake up in a good mood! 
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AACHEN2000 |
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#18 Posted: 9/17/2009 1:24:11 AM There are just forty minutes ahead from the S.W.Hseih game to start and the odds just increase to +132..in pinny
what do you think?? the strategy is still the same??
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tammy1234_56 |
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#19 Posted: 9/17/2009 1:27:33 AM Thanks for the pick TC! I got half a unit earlier today at +119. Saw it drop to +109, but has climbed to +132 now at pinny. Will wait to see if it keeps rising before I add to my bet. Good luck to all of us! Keep p the good work! |
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clepto |
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#20 Posted: 9/17/2009 1:36:36 AM Tailed you at +113 for $100. Let's get this |
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burley |
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#21 Posted: 9/17/2009 1:43:22 AM
pinnacle now at -152 line has been taken down just as i type
all other books have raised it more
bet 365 was -137 now -187.
hsieh is 2-0 over savchuk all recent matches...what gives ...injury???
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burley |
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#22 Posted: 9/17/2009 1:51:21 AM
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tammy1234_56 |
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#23 Posted: 9/17/2009 1:52:47 AM Haha, it just keeps on going up at +140 now..  |
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burley |
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#24 Posted: 9/17/2009 2:01:33 AM
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burley |
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#25 Posted: 9/17/2009 2:03:11 AM
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