I have been contacted by a lot of good guys I didn't even know were monitoring the Tennis Forum because I have never seen them posting. I have therefore realized that my information and selections are appreciated by more people I thought and I have decided to start a daily thread for this tournament.
My few "friends" that kindly requested my picks for the first 2 days know both of them were very profitable so please be aware that a losing day is right around the corner given the last couple of weeks I had. I would appreciate if when that happens you would at least try to feel sorry for a fellow poster who is losing money rather
than make fun of him!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello
I have been contacted by a lot of good guys I didn't even know were monitoring the Tennis Forum because I have never seen them posting. I have therefore realized that my information and selections are appreciated by more people I thought and I have decided to start a daily thread for this tournament.
My few "friends" that kindly requested my picks for the first 2 days know both of them were very profitable so please be aware that a losing day is right around the corner given the last couple of weeks I had. I would appreciate if when that happens you would at least try to feel sorry for a fellow poster who is losing money rather
I don't think I can recall a more solid player than Marcos Daniel given his restricted skills but his fantastic attitude towards the game. He is a true professional that always gives 110% in the court and never leaves without trying to do what he came for, win the match. Despite being part of that old generation of claycourters (just like Acasuso) he never really had a lot of issues in playing on Hard Courts:
Marcos Daniel is a career 77-71 on Hard Courts
Jose Acasuso is a career 36-53 on Hard Courts.
This is because while Acasuso gives a lot of top spin to his strokes, Marcos Daniel has a more solid, flat stroke which gives him a small advantage when he is playing on this surface, especially against another claycourter.
Last year Juan Carlos Ferrero said "whenever you hit the ball with topspin here, it feels like the balls are dead". The balls this event is being played with are the same ones
Both players' serves aren't a weapon and I would expect a lot of breaks in this match, however Jose Acasuso is carrying this out of whack price due to his great run last week and because Marcos Daniel is not a very fashionable name that attracts money.
I don't need to remind you that Jose Acasuso was a +180 Underdog at the beginning of this Hard Court swing against Lukasz Kubot...
Marcos Daniel has a 10-1 TieBreak record for 2009 and he has historically been very good in tight matches, he doesn't choke and he isn't scared of winning, proof is he has under his belt a few important wins on this surface (Dent, Trociki and Wawrinka to name a few).
This would be Jose Acasuso's 9th match in the last 2 weeks and the last time he played as much was in February 2009 and I would expect some fatigue from the Argentinean especially since this is a Best of 5 match and his Best of 5 matches career record is an ugly 14-33.
At +340 I am happily placing some money on the Brazilian who is more than capable of pulling up a fight.
Risk 1 unit to win 3.4 Units.
Will add more later, I am going through the matches now.
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Marcos Daniel vs Jose Acasuso
I don't think I can recall a more solid player than Marcos Daniel given his restricted skills but his fantastic attitude towards the game. He is a true professional that always gives 110% in the court and never leaves without trying to do what he came for, win the match. Despite being part of that old generation of claycourters (just like Acasuso) he never really had a lot of issues in playing on Hard Courts:
Marcos Daniel is a career 77-71 on Hard Courts
Jose Acasuso is a career 36-53 on Hard Courts.
This is because while Acasuso gives a lot of top spin to his strokes, Marcos Daniel has a more solid, flat stroke which gives him a small advantage when he is playing on this surface, especially against another claycourter.
Last year Juan Carlos Ferrero said "whenever you hit the ball with topspin here, it feels like the balls are dead". The balls this event is being played with are the same ones
Both players' serves aren't a weapon and I would expect a lot of breaks in this match, however Jose Acasuso is carrying this out of whack price due to his great run last week and because Marcos Daniel is not a very fashionable name that attracts money.
I don't need to remind you that Jose Acasuso was a +180 Underdog at the beginning of this Hard Court swing against Lukasz Kubot...
Marcos Daniel has a 10-1 TieBreak record for 2009 and he has historically been very good in tight matches, he doesn't choke and he isn't scared of winning, proof is he has under his belt a few important wins on this surface (Dent, Trociki and Wawrinka to name a few).
This would be Jose Acasuso's 9th match in the last 2 weeks and the last time he played as much was in February 2009 and I would expect some fatigue from the Argentinean especially since this is a Best of 5 match and his Best of 5 matches career record is an ugly 14-33.
At +340 I am happily placing some money on the Brazilian who is more than capable of pulling up a fight.
Risk 1 unit to win 3.4 Units.
Will add more later, I am going through the matches now.
Sergiy Stakhovsky is crafty enough to trouble Petzschner.
Solid serve, good ground strokes and decent return abilities.
His problem is that he is inconsistent but maybe most of you recall the best Stakhovsky troubling Andy Murray in February where he actually managed to win the first set in a TieBreak, lost the second 6-3 and suffered from cramps in the third set which led to a questionable retirement on 5-3 30-15 in the third set.
Bottom line is that Stakhovsky has a decent overall record on Hard Courts and Petszchner is not a reliable player you want to lay chalk on for obvious reasons, including he is prone to commit a lot of unforced errors and his questionable approach towards the match if it isn't going his way. He is the typical player that if Plan A doesn't work he will try to do Plan A even harder.
I was considering a 2 Units play on this one but Stakhovsky's form is questionable and this is a gamble therefore will keep my stakes small and will bet this at +280 to win 2 Units so risking less than 1 unit.
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Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Philipp Petzschner
Sergiy Stakhovsky is crafty enough to trouble Petzschner.
Solid serve, good ground strokes and decent return abilities.
His problem is that he is inconsistent but maybe most of you recall the best Stakhovsky troubling Andy Murray in February where he actually managed to win the first set in a TieBreak, lost the second 6-3 and suffered from cramps in the third set which led to a questionable retirement on 5-3 30-15 in the third set.
Bottom line is that Stakhovsky has a decent overall record on Hard Courts and Petszchner is not a reliable player you want to lay chalk on for obvious reasons, including he is prone to commit a lot of unforced errors and his questionable approach towards the match if it isn't going his way. He is the typical player that if Plan A doesn't work he will try to do Plan A even harder.
I was considering a 2 Units play on this one but Stakhovsky's form is questionable and this is a gamble therefore will keep my stakes small and will bet this at +280 to win 2 Units so risking less than 1 unit.
capper- I like the daniel pick and the info and also thats good stuff on Sergiy but and thats a iffy but i think Ptsz has been playing well and eithe push this to an over or win it as a short fav..... but im still deciding... Ivanovic and ivo killed me (oh well) a new day awaits.......... take care
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capper- I like the daniel pick and the info and also thats good stuff on Sergiy but and thats a iffy but i think Ptsz has been playing well and eithe push this to an over or win it as a short fav..... but im still deciding... Ivanovic and ivo killed me (oh well) a new day awaits.......... take care
capper- I like the daniel pick and the info and also thats good stuff on Sergiy but and thats a iffy but i think Ptsz has been playing well and eithe push this to an over or win it as a short fav..... but im still deciding... Ivanovic and ivo killed me (oh well) a new day awaits.......... take care
Yeah, mate. Sorry about those losses, I don't think I recall Karlovic losing two tiebreaks in the same match against a weaker opponent. Too bad.
About those picks, those are just pure value. Of course both guys can get slammed, I mean, look at the odds! but if just one of them wins, well it's a great day. I think both of them can outperform the given odds and I am ready to risk my money on them, but make no mistake Petzschner is very unreliable as a favorite. Regardless of the outcome of this match, believe me, not the guy that will make profit in the long run betting him as a favorite. Much more dangerous as the underdog.
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Quote Originally Posted by tj13:
capper- I like the daniel pick and the info and also thats good stuff on Sergiy but and thats a iffy but i think Ptsz has been playing well and eithe push this to an over or win it as a short fav..... but im still deciding... Ivanovic and ivo killed me (oh well) a new day awaits.......... take care
Yeah, mate. Sorry about those losses, I don't think I recall Karlovic losing two tiebreaks in the same match against a weaker opponent. Too bad.
About those picks, those are just pure value. Of course both guys can get slammed, I mean, look at the odds! but if just one of them wins, well it's a great day. I think both of them can outperform the given odds and I am ready to risk my money on them, but make no mistake Petzschner is very unreliable as a favorite. Regardless of the outcome of this match, believe me, not the guy that will make profit in the long run betting him as a favorite. Much more dangerous as the underdog.
problemy s angliskim, TennisCapper cto dumaes pro santoro, mne kazitsa u nego bolse sansov na upset. mnogije budut dumat cto nepovtoritsa australien open...a eti dvoje dumaju nadelajut problem, no do pobedy ne doidut...tut mozet byt na over mozno lutce podumat, ili cto ne budet 3-0, chote nasciot acasuso mozet byt i 3-0...
s uvazenijem
p.s. a dengi ja dumaju safin+Yen-Hsun Lu
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problemy s angliskim, TennisCapper cto dumaes pro santoro, mne kazitsa u nego bolse sansov na upset. mnogije budut dumat cto nepovtoritsa australien open...a eti dvoje dumaju nadelajut problem, no do pobedy ne doidut...tut mozet byt na over mozno lutce podumat, ili cto ne budet 3-0, chote nasciot acasuso mozet byt i 3-0...
problemy s angliskim, TennisCapper cto dumaes pro santoro, mne kazitsa u nego bolse sansov na upset. mnogije budut dumat cto nepovtoritsa australien open...a eti dvoje dumaju nadelajut problem, no do pobedy ne doidut...tut mozet byt na over mozno lutce podumat, ili cto ne budet 3-0, chote nasciot acasuso mozet byt i 3-0...
s uvazenijem
p.s. a dengi ja dumaju safin+Yen-Hsun Lu
Is that Belarusian? Because if it is I don't understand a word of it Please write in english
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Quote Originally Posted by Vycka:
problemy s angliskim, TennisCapper cto dumaes pro santoro, mne kazitsa u nego bolse sansov na upset. mnogije budut dumat cto nepovtoritsa australien open...a eti dvoje dumaju nadelajut problem, no do pobedy ne doidut...tut mozet byt na over mozno lutce podumat, ili cto ne budet 3-0, chote nasciot acasuso mozet byt i 3-0...
s uvazenijem
p.s. a dengi ja dumaju safin+Yen-Hsun Lu
Is that Belarusian? Because if it is I don't understand a word of it Please write in english
problemy s angliskim, TennisCapper cto dumaes pro santoro, mne kazitsa u nego bolse sansov na upset. mnogije budut dumat cto nepovtoritsa australien open...a eti dvoje dumaju nadelajut problem, no do pobedy ne doidut...tut mozet byt na over mozno lutce podumat, ili cto ne budet 3-0, chote nasciot acasuso mozet byt i 3-0...
s uvazenijem
p.s. a dengi ja dumaju safin+Yen-Hsun Lu
problems with english... TC what do you think of santoro, IMO he has a greater chance for an upset... public thinks that australian open match will not repeat here... your two picks (stakhovsky + daniel) should cause problems to favorites but will fail to win.... perhaps 'Over' is a better option, or betting against 3-0 scoreline... acasuso might actually win 3-0... regards p.s. my money bet is Safin and Yen-Hsun Lu
- italics were added by the interpreter - message is in russian - constructive and polite tone is sustained, so IMO this post does not deserve any bashing
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Quote Originally Posted by Vycka:
problemy s angliskim, TennisCapper cto dumaes pro santoro, mne kazitsa u nego bolse sansov na upset. mnogije budut dumat cto nepovtoritsa australien open...a eti dvoje dumaju nadelajut problem, no do pobedy ne doidut...tut mozet byt na over mozno lutce podumat, ili cto ne budet 3-0, chote nasciot acasuso mozet byt i 3-0...
s uvazenijem
p.s. a dengi ja dumaju safin+Yen-Hsun Lu
problems with english... TC what do you think of santoro, IMO he has a greater chance for an upset... public thinks that australian open match will not repeat here... your two picks (stakhovsky + daniel) should cause problems to favorites but will fail to win.... perhaps 'Over' is a better option, or betting against 3-0 scoreline... acasuso might actually win 3-0... regards p.s. my money bet is Safin and Yen-Hsun Lu
- italics were added by the interpreter - message is in russian - constructive and polite tone is sustained, so IMO this post does not deserve any bashing
Wow, I was looking at the matches and a whole lot went on in here. Thanks for the help Muggsy
For future reference, I am not from Belarus but only the girl in my picture, Victoria Azarenka, the only true love of my life is. Once we will get married (she doesn't know it yet, but that's a smaller issue) I will be willing to learn her native language!
Until then, Vycka, I gave a long look at Santoro as well, but on a best of 5 match I can not back the man. He didn't show me enough while Ferrero has been good lately, I think the odds are right and my money won't be seen in that match.
Safin, I don't bet that guy ever. Sorry. I could write a book about Marat Safin but let's just end it by saying I don't wager on that guy under any circumstance.
Bellucci cruised through qualification rounds and that match is a coin flip according to me, so the odds are fair. No bet for me.
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Wow, I was looking at the matches and a whole lot went on in here. Thanks for the help Muggsy
For future reference, I am not from Belarus but only the girl in my picture, Victoria Azarenka, the only true love of my life is. Once we will get married (she doesn't know it yet, but that's a smaller issue) I will be willing to learn her native language!
Until then, Vycka, I gave a long look at Santoro as well, but on a best of 5 match I can not back the man. He didn't show me enough while Ferrero has been good lately, I think the odds are right and my money won't be seen in that match.
Safin, I don't bet that guy ever. Sorry. I could write a book about Marat Safin but let's just end it by saying I don't wager on that guy under any circumstance.
Bellucci cruised through qualification rounds and that match is a coin flip according to me, so the odds are fair. No bet for me.
No time for writeup, but main reason is that this should be tight. Korolev knows how to play on Hard (48-40 record) while Beck (18-10) has recorded most of the wins on the Challenger circuit or on the Juniors tour. Both are unforced errors machines and I am betting on Beck to explode before Korolev.
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Adding:
Korolev +185
risk 1 Unit
No time for writeup, but main reason is that this should be tight. Korolev knows how to play on Hard (48-40 record) while Beck (18-10) has recorded most of the wins on the Challenger circuit or on the Juniors tour. Both are unforced errors machines and I am betting on Beck to explode before Korolev.
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