Messages

Forum Index : Pro Golf : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: BOGEY @ TPC BOSTON
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#1
Posted: 8/28/2012 12:38:03 AM
Hello guys I am glad to see some of us are getting started a bit early this week. Personally I need the early start and more time to study because the last 2 weeks  results have been far from what I have been used to the last 30+ months.

One thing I noticed last years top 10 was peppered with guys who were ranked really high in the all around in 2011. Simpson Sned Donald Van Pelt Day Mahan Scott Stanley were ranked 11th or better on the season.

I would suggest using course form and all around stats 2012 as part of handicapping this week to go along with the obvious birdie avg avg and GIR.

I found this info below on the net and thought I would share.


There are seven guys with multiple top 10s at TPC Boston over the last three stops. They are Brandt Snedeker, Steve Stricker, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Luke Donald, Geoff Ogilvy and Jim Furyk. The majority of those guys are much better at putting and scrambling than they are bombing and ball-striking.



quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#2
Posted: 8/28/2012 12:56:17 AM
My long shot picks at a first round leader, a combination of guys who have led after round one mixed in with a few good putters and scramblers with a few more solid first round avg picks. I will copy and paste this because I hate typing things out with my 2 index fingers.



quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#3
Posted: 8/28/2012 12:56:27 AM
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281027

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3604) Jason Dufner 22/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 15.00US$ 330.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281026

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3692) Johnson Wagner 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 3.00US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281025

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3652) Scott Piercy 100/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 5.00US$ 500.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281024

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3662) Brendon De Jonge 125/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 5.00US$ 625.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281023

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3673) Roberto Castro 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 4.00US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281022

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3678) Jonas Blixt 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 4.00US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281021

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3644) Graham Delaet 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 6.00US$ 480.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281020

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3637) Ryan Moore 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 6.00US$ 480.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM

Single #261281019

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3677) Ken Duke 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 4.00US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM

Single #261281018

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3689) Michael Thompson 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 3.00US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM

Single #261281017

Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline

If a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT RULES APPLY

PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship

(3632) Vijay Singh 66/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a

WebUS$ 15.00US$ 990.00
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#4
Posted: 8/28/2012 1:00:32 AM
LEANS SO FAR

SCOTT OVER ROSE
DONALD OVER DUFNER
WOODS OVER RMAC
DAY OVER FOWLER
MOORE OVER HOLMES

THOSE WERE FT, THE BELOW ARE HYPOTHETICAL RD 1 MATCHUPS

SNED OVER WATNEY
DUFF OVER RMAC IF I CAN GET +125
DUFF OVER ZJ

MUCH MORE TO FOLLOW ONCE MY SITES POST LINES

ANY INPUT IS APPRECIATED GUYS
quote
KenniS1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Betfair |
KenniS1
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 248
Location: Denmark
#5
Posted: 8/28/2012 7:16:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBogey:

LEANS SO FAR

SCOTT OVER ROSE
DONALD OVER DUFNER
WOODS OVER RMAC
DAY OVER FOWLER
MOORE OVER HOLMES

THOSE WERE FT, THE BELOW ARE HYPOTHETICAL RD 1 MATCHUPS

SNED OVER WATNEY
DUFF OVER RMAC IF I CAN GET +125
DUFF OVER ZJ

MUCH MORE TO FOLLOW ONCE MY SITES POST LINES

ANY INPUT IS APPRECIATED GUYS

Doesn't look like we have the same FT matchups, but I like the possible play on Dufner vs Rory. Dufner tends to start well leading 1st round scoring average and he has had an extra week to prepare and just has way better and more history at the course than rory.
quote
blairaj send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
blairaj
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 969
Location:
#6
Posted: 8/28/2012 10:08:36 AM

I ran the correlations for last year's tournament:

         Slope   R2    Rank
par5   0.76   0.34     1
pa      0.68   0.24     2
PB     0.65   0.28     3
BA     0.57   0.26    4
ppr      0.53   0.15    5
par4    0.51   0.17    6
dd       0.43   0.04    7
gir       0.42   0.09    8
sc        0.41   0.16    9
da        0.32   0.10    10
par3     0.25   0.04    11

Judging by the fact that:  dd, da, gir, and sc are all more tightly bunched than most other tournaments, I'd think that you're spot-on with looking at all around.  Additionally, you have to:   kill the par 5's, make a lot of putts, and not be afraid to get low.

quote
blairaj send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
blairaj
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 969
Location:
#7
Posted: 8/28/2012 11:59:44 AM

Last week we had a guy break through that hasn't "played to the back of his baseball card" all year in Watney.  I'm kind of thinking we could see another this week in Jason Day - who's finished top3 here the last 2 years, has had some time to settle into being a new dad, and played 3 of 4 rounds last week good enough to be in contention.  I'm hoping (betting at 50:1) that familiar surroundings here help him to the consistency he needs for all 4 rounds.

 

quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#8
Posted: 8/28/2012 1:36:54 PM
KenniS1 that was my exact thinking with Dufner. Where do you get your matchups from?


Blairaj thanks for posting that, I was curious about what other stats were important.

The way Day has played this year you would think he would be 100/1. Being set 50/1 I think the oddsmakers know his potential is very high this week.

Golf is so funny like that, one week someone just comes out of nowhere, that is one reason I do not mind making the small bets on guys that have won before but are struggling.

I am hating that Dufner is down to 20/1 at my futures outlet. Got him at 22/1 to lead round 1.

Blairaj I know you never bet futures really but who are some of the 50/1 or higher guys that you think have a chance?
quote
KenniS1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Betfair |
KenniS1
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 248
Location: Denmark
#9
Posted: 8/28/2012 1:51:26 PM
@MrBogey

I shop around mainly between bet365, ladbrokes and unibet and play most of my futures at betfair. 

I also think that the bookmakers have figured out Jason Day's potential and I think 50-1 is too low of a number with all of the question marks in mind. 
quote
KenniS1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Betfair |
KenniS1
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 248
Location: Denmark
#10
Posted: 8/28/2012 1:54:45 PM
@blairaj

Good info. I have upgraded the importance of the allround stat in my research for the week:)
quote
blairaj send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
blairaj
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 969
Location:
#11
Posted: 8/28/2012 1:57:00 PM

I do bet the occasional future, I'm just so bad at it that I don't usually post them when I do, because I'd never recommend anybody playing them.  And, my book only goes up to 50:1 and lumps the rest in the "field", so I don't bother spending much time looking at them.

A couple guys with real good recent form are coming in around 50:1 in Clark and Pettersson.  JB Holmes is coming in around 100.  Those are just first glance though, I haven't done much homework yet.

quote
blairaj send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
blairaj
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 969
Location:
#12
Posted: 8/28/2012 1:58:54 PM
I'm also thinking the way Stanley played early in the year, he's just too good to play as bad as he has been for too much longer.
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#13
Posted: 8/28/2012 3:45:00 PM
Nick Watney after a win, 13th, MC, t-22, MC.

It does not seem like he is the kind of player who can follow up a win with another great week. I will definitely look to fade him this week.


quote
HMoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HMoney
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 1055
Location: California
#14
Posted: 8/29/2012 8:45:10 PM
I was thinking about Day as well.  He was a favorite of mine last year.  Scott and Snedeker are good bets as well   but going with G-Mac at 40-1.  he seems to be in the mix alot.  still can't believe Watney won last week. 
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#15
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:47:27 PM
yea not many people thought Watney would pull it off Sunday. I admit I was one of them.

Gmac just needs to improve his final round average, he could have 3 wins this year.


only a matter of time before Day explodes onto the scene again. I just hope I am on him when he does.
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#16
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:49:40 PM
someone should create a site that keeps track of when PGA players have a new kid  because they definitely struggle with their ability to perform for a few weeks after.
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#17
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:16:46 PM

MU
[7018] B VAN PELT -140
(N WATNEY vrs B VAN PELT)

420 / 300

MU
[7031] C PETTERSON -115
(C PETTERSON vrs I POULTER)

345 / 300

MU
[7041] B HARMAN -165
(B HARMAN vrs C HOFFMAN)

495 / 300

MU
[7027] Z JOHNSON -135
(Z JOHNSON vrs B HAAS)

371 / 275

MU
[7050] K DUKE -125
(K NA vrs K DUKE)

344 / 275
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#18
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:18:56 PM
those are a few FT picks and I also added these early tee times to lead after first round

the swartz
paddy
scott
english
crane

these pay 600-792 each
quote
clepto
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
clepto
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 32701
Location: Ontario
#19
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:23:47 PM
Love the Dufner and Delaet 1st Rnd Leader plays. Also have them both for the win.

 
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#20
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:24:21 PM
all FT, added on to a few earlier plays and went big with one due to the supposed advantage on tee times, the difference in all around stats, course history and the fact that the guy is all over NYC this week doing charity work and publicity stops.


MU
[7034] V SINGH -115
(E ELS vrs V SINGH)

575 / 500

MU
[7002] T WOODS -105
(R MCILROY vrs T WOODS)

210 / 200

MU
[7003] L DONALD -115
(L DONALD vrs B WATSON)

230 / 200

MU
[7006] D JOHNSON +115
(J DUFNER vrs D JOHNSON)

100 / 115

MU
[7014] K BRADLEY -115
(J FURYK vrs K BRADLEY)

115 / 100

MU
[7015] W SIMPSON -120
(W SIMPSON vrs J DAY)

240 / 200

MU
[7018] B VAN PELT -160
(N WATNEY vrs B VAN PELT)

320 / 200

MU
[7025] G MCDOWELL -125
(G MCDOWELL vrs P HARRINGTON)

125 / 100

MU
[7040] S STALLINGS +125
(G CHALMERS vrs S STALLINGS)

100 / 125

MU
[7045] J TEATER -115
(J TEATER vrs T GILLIS)

230 / 200

MU
[7048] S O`HAIR EV
(C HOWELL III vrs S O`HAIR)

100 / 100

MU
[7034] V SINGH -115
(E ELS vrs V SINGH)

1150 / 1000

quote
clepto
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
clepto
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 32701
Location: Ontario
#21
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:38:55 PM
Surprised you don't have Delaet in any match. He's going to play well this week. Have him -130 1st Rnd v Kirk and -135 72 hole.

 
quote
clepto
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
clepto
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 32701
Location: Ontario
#22
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:41:06 PM
Tiger to win FedEx Cup and secure player of the year +340 looks tasty as well...

 Any thoughts on that Bogey?
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#23
Posted: 8/31/2012 12:10:47 AM
didn't have any options on Delaet

Tiger who knows Clepto, I don't lol
quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#24
Posted: 8/31/2012 12:16:14 AM
a few of my smaller plays on Bovada's match ups FT

Aug 28, 2012 11:32:38 PM

Single #261333010

Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline

Players listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the Tournament.

PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head

(3017) Steve Stricker -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a

Competitor: (3016) Brandt Snedeker

WebUS$ 115.00US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 10:44:03 PM

Single #261331863

Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline

Players listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the Tournament.

PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head

(3020) Zach Johnson -120 Aug 30/12@08:00a

Competitor: (3021) Carl Pettersson

WebUS$ 120.00US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 10:43:37 PM

Single #261331857

Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline

Players listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the Tournament.

PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head

(3024) Geoff Ogilvy -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a

Competitor: (3025) Jason Day

WebUS$ 115.00US$ 100.00

quote
MrBogey send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
MrBogey
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 3042
Location: Florida
#25
Posted: 8/31/2012 12:16:56 AM
Aug 28, 2012 01:54:21 PM

Single #261297223

Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline

Players listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the Tournament.

PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head

(3010) Adam Scott -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a

Competitor: (3011) Lee Westwood

WebUS$ 115.00US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 01:49:50 PM

Single #261297036

Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline

Players listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the Tournament.

PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head

(3014) Luke Donald -125 Aug 30/12@08:00a

Competitor: (3015) Dustin Johnson

WebUS$ 250.00US$ 200.00
quote
Forum Index : Pro Golf : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.