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[Pro Golf] Topic: BOGEY @ TPC BOSTON |
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MrBogey |
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#1 Posted: 8/28/2012 12:38:03 AM
One thing I noticed last years top 10 was peppered with guys who were ranked really high in the all around in 2011. Simpson Sned Donald Van Pelt Day Mahan Scott Stanley were ranked 11th or better on the season.
I would suggest using course form and all around stats 2012 as part of handicapping this week to go along with the obvious birdie avg avg and GIR.
I found this info below on the net and thought I would share.
There are seven guys with multiple top 10s at TPC Boston over the last
three stops. They are Brandt Snedeker, Steve Stricker, Jason Day, Adam
Scott, Luke Donald, Geoff Ogilvy and Jim Furyk. The majority of those
guys are much better at putting and scrambling than they are bombing and
ball-striking.
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MrBogey |
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#2 Posted: 8/28/2012 12:56:17 AM 
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MrBogey |
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#3 Posted: 8/28/2012 12:56:27 AM | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281027 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3604) Jason Dufner 22/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 15.00 | US$ 330.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281026 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3692) Johnson Wagner 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 3.00 | US$ 600.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281025 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3652) Scott Piercy 100/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 5.00 | US$ 500.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281024 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3662) Brendon De Jonge 125/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 5.00 | US$ 625.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281023 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3673) Roberto Castro 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 4.00 | US$ 600.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281022 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3678) Jonas Blixt 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 4.00 | US$ 600.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281021 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3644) Graham Delaet 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 6.00 | US$ 480.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281020 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3637) Ryan Moore 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 6.00 | US$ 480.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM | Single #261281019 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3677) Ken Duke 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 4.00 | US$ 600.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM | Single #261281018 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3689) Michael Thompson 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 3.00 | US$ 600.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM | Single #261281017 Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship (3632) Vijay Singh 66/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a | Web | US$ 15.00 | US$ 990.00 |
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MrBogey |
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#4 Posted: 8/28/2012 1:00:32 AM
SCOTT OVER ROSE
DONALD OVER DUFNER
WOODS OVER RMAC
DAY OVER FOWLER
MOORE OVER HOLMES
THOSE WERE FT, THE BELOW ARE HYPOTHETICAL RD 1 MATCHUPS
SNED OVER WATNEY
DUFF OVER RMAC IF I CAN GET +125
DUFF OVER ZJ
MUCH MORE TO FOLLOW ONCE MY SITES POST LINES
ANY INPUT IS APPRECIATED GUYS
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KenniS1 |
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#5 Posted: 8/28/2012 7:16:33 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBogey:
LEANS SO FAR
SCOTT OVER ROSE
DONALD OVER DUFNER
WOODS OVER RMAC
DAY OVER FOWLER
MOORE OVER HOLMES
THOSE WERE FT, THE BELOW ARE HYPOTHETICAL RD 1 MATCHUPS
SNED OVER WATNEY
DUFF OVER RMAC IF I CAN GET +125
DUFF OVER ZJ
MUCH MORE TO FOLLOW ONCE MY SITES POST LINES
ANY INPUT IS APPRECIATED GUYS
Doesn't look like we have the same FT matchups, but I like the possible play on Dufner vs Rory. Dufner tends to start well leading 1st round scoring average and he has had an extra week to prepare and just has way better and more history at the course than rory. |
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blairaj |
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#6 Posted: 8/28/2012 10:08:36 AM I ran the correlations for last year's tournament:
Slope R2 Rank
par5 0.76 0.34 1
pa 0.68 0.24 2
PB 0.65 0.28 3
BA 0.57 0.26 4
ppr 0.53 0.15 5
par4 0.51 0.17 6
dd 0.43 0.04 7
gir 0.42 0.09 8
sc 0.41 0.16 9
da 0.32 0.10 10
par3 0.25 0.04 11
Judging by the fact that: dd, da, gir, and sc are all more tightly bunched than most other tournaments, I'd think that you're spot-on with looking at all around. Additionally, you have to: kill the par 5's, make a lot of putts, and not be afraid to get low. |
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blairaj |
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#7 Posted: 8/28/2012 11:59:44 AM Last week we had a guy break through that hasn't "played to the back of his baseball card" all year in Watney. I'm kind of thinking we could see another this week in Jason Day - who's finished top3 here the last 2 years, has had some time to settle into being a new dad, and played 3 of 4 rounds last week good enough to be in contention. I'm hoping (betting at 50:1) that familiar surroundings here help him to the consistency he needs for all 4 rounds.
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MrBogey |
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#8 Posted: 8/28/2012 1:36:54 PM
Blairaj thanks for posting that, I was curious about what other stats were important.
The way Day has played this year you would think he would be 100/1. Being set 50/1 I think the oddsmakers know his potential is very high this week.
Golf is so funny like that, one week someone just comes out of nowhere, that is one reason I do not mind making the small bets on guys that have won before but are struggling.
I am hating that Dufner is down to 20/1 at my futures outlet. Got him at 22/1 to lead round 1.
Blairaj I know you never bet futures really but who are some of the 50/1 or higher guys that you think have a chance?
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KenniS1 |
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#9 Posted: 8/28/2012 1:51:26 PM
I shop around mainly between bet365, ladbrokes and unibet and play most of my futures at betfair.
I also think that the bookmakers have figured out Jason Day's potential and I think 50-1 is too low of a number with all of the question marks in mind. |
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KenniS1 |
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#10 Posted: 8/28/2012 1:54:45 PM
Good info. I have upgraded the importance of the allround stat in my research for the week:) |
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blairaj |
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#11 Posted: 8/28/2012 1:57:00 PM I do bet the occasional future, I'm just so bad at it that I don't usually post them when I do, because I'd never recommend anybody playing them. And, my book only goes up to 50:1 and lumps the rest in the "field", so I don't bother spending much time looking at them.
A couple guys with real good recent form are coming in around 50:1 in Clark and Pettersson. JB Holmes is coming in around 100. Those are just first glance though, I haven't done much homework yet. |
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blairaj |
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#12 Posted: 8/28/2012 1:58:54 PM |
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MrBogey |
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#13 Posted: 8/28/2012 3:45:00 PM
It does not seem like he is the kind of player who can follow up a win with another great week. I will definitely look to fade him this week.
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HMoney |
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#14 Posted: 8/29/2012 8:45:10 PM  |
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MrBogey |
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#15 Posted: 8/29/2012 11:47:27 PM
Gmac just needs to improve his final round average, he could have 3 wins this year.
only a matter of time before Day explodes onto the scene again. I just hope I am on him when he does.
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MrBogey |
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#16 Posted: 8/29/2012 11:49:40 PM
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MrBogey |
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#17 Posted: 8/30/2012 11:16:46 PM | | |
MU
| [7018] B VAN PELT -140
(N WATNEY vrs B VAN PELT)
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420 /
300
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MU
| [7031] C PETTERSON -115
(C PETTERSON vrs I POULTER)
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345 /
300
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MU
| [7041] B HARMAN -165
(B HARMAN vrs C HOFFMAN)
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495 /
300
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MU
| [7027] Z JOHNSON -135
(Z JOHNSON vrs B HAAS)
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371 /
275
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MU
| [7050] K DUKE -125
(K NA vrs K DUKE)
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344 /
275 |
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MrBogey |
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#18 Posted: 8/30/2012 11:18:56 PM
the swartz
paddy
scott
english
crane
these pay 600-792 each
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clepto |
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#19 Posted: 8/30/2012 11:23:47 PM
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MrBogey |
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#20 Posted: 8/30/2012 11:24:21 PM
| | |
MU
| [7034] V SINGH -115
(E ELS vrs V SINGH)
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575 /
500
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MU
| [7002] T WOODS -105
(R MCILROY vrs T WOODS)
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210 /
200
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MU
| [7003] L DONALD -115
(L DONALD vrs B WATSON)
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230 /
200
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MU
| [7006] D JOHNSON +115
(J DUFNER vrs D JOHNSON)
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100 /
115
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MU
| [7014] K BRADLEY -115
(J FURYK vrs K BRADLEY)
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115 /
100
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MU
| [7015] W SIMPSON -120
(W SIMPSON vrs J DAY)
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240 /
200
| | | |
MU
| [7018] B VAN PELT -160
(N WATNEY vrs B VAN PELT)
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320 /
200
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MU
| [7025] G MCDOWELL -125
(G MCDOWELL vrs P HARRINGTON)
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125 /
100
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MU
| [7040] S STALLINGS +125
(G CHALMERS vrs S STALLINGS)
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100 /
125
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MU
| [7045] J TEATER -115
(J TEATER vrs T GILLIS)
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230 /
200
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MU
| [7048] S O`HAIR EV
(C HOWELL III vrs S O`HAIR)
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100 /
100
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MU
| [7034] V SINGH -115
(E ELS vrs V SINGH)
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1150 /
1000 |
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clepto |
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#21 Posted: 8/30/2012 11:38:55 PM
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clepto |
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#22 Posted: 8/30/2012 11:41:06 PM
 Any thoughts on that Bogey? |
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MrBogey |
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#23 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:10:47 AM
Tiger who knows Clepto, I don't lol
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MrBogey |
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#24 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:16:14 AM
| Aug 28, 2012 11:32:38 PM | Single #261333010 Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament. PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head (3017) Steve Stricker -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a Competitor: (3016) Brandt Snedeker | Web | US$ 115.00 | US$ 100.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 10:44:03 PM | Single #261331863 Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament. PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head (3020) Zach Johnson -120 Aug 30/12@08:00a Competitor: (3021) Carl Pettersson | Web | US$ 120.00 | US$ 100.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 10:43:37 PM | Single #261331857 Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament. PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head (3024) Geoff Ogilvy -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a Competitor: (3025) Jason Day | Web | US$ 115.00 | US$ 100.00 |
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MrBogey |
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#25 Posted: 8/31/2012 12:16:56 AM | Aug 28, 2012 01:54:21 PM | Single #261297223 Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament. PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head (3010) Adam Scott -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a Competitor: (3011) Lee Westwood | Web | US$ 115.00 | US$ 100.00 | | Aug 28, 2012 01:49:50 PM | Single #261297036 Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament. PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head (3014) Luke Donald -125 Aug 30/12@08:00a Competitor: (3015) Dustin Johnson | Web | US$ 250.00 | US$ 200.00 |
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