though didnt post, started off the day with a tiny play on China/Finland womens over. either thats gonna be an omen or a "+" sign of things to come. hope its the latter.
Europe WCQ:
Serbia/Wales over 2 @-128, over 2.5 @+146 - at first glance, I felt this was going to be a tight, low-scoring draw. And without Bale, I have a hard time try to figure out just how/where Wales will even score here. but then I looked further into Serbia, theyve conceded a goal in practically every home match, 11 out of their last 12 in all competitions vs quite a few teams weaker than Wales too (they were even LOSING in Georgia 0-1 in their last qualifier). So, the visitors being able to find the back of the net isnt as far-fetched as it seems. Wales is 4 pts behind in WC qualifying, so they can ill-afford to drop pts here.
All 12 of Serbias home matches since 2014 have seen at least 2 goals. the O/U 2 is a strong play for me.
Italy/Liecht over 2.5 halftime @+112 - reverse fixture back in November, on the road, Azzuri were leading 4-0 at the break. now they are at home in front of their own fans. If ya go back to previous years you'll notice Italians havent really covered large spreads; but Ventura has them playing much much different style than Conte. not interested in game total as they may very well just use the 2nd half as a defensive practice session.
Womens Friendly:
USA -1 @+110 - any time I see USA gals getting less than -200 juice vs a non-power it catches my attention. i feel this is an over-reaction to their recent performance. they should thump Norway today. yes, they played god-awful vs Pia's (USA's former coach) Sweden team a few days ago. that same Sweden team which booted them from the Olympics and made it all way to the final only to lose to Germany. USA featured a lineup whom never played together (actually, just got together as they all played for their club teams on June 3rd) & threw in a bunch of young gals as HC Ellis experimented. they were outshot, 2-10 in corners, and sweden controlled most of the possession. yet STILL won 1-0. USA still has the deepest bench in the world and for this match according to what Im reading, Ellis is putting in a few more of the regulars and with a couple days of reviewing film, and listening to how poorly they played; doesnt matter whom their opponent is.
Norway is a decent side in womens soccer, a longtime power many years ago and trying to get back to elite status, they have bunch of nice wins this year but just feel they are going to be overmatched with the lineup Ellis is expected to put out. womens soccer is different than the mens in the sense that theres fewer opportunities to have meaningful tournaments/games, so every Friendly is taken seriously. Common opponent: Norwegians barely beat Switz 2-1 at home in April, the same Switz team the USA destroyed twice 6 months ago 4-0, 5-1 with almost the same lineup as what's expected today.
scr*w it, plunking a little more on this one. against all common sense, and ignoring the fact that -- up until yesterday --- ive totally s*cked all week long.
though didnt post, started off the day with a tiny play on China/Finland womens over. either thats gonna be an omen or a "+" sign of things to come. hope its the latter.
Europe WCQ:
Serbia/Wales over 2 @-128, over 2.5 @+146 - at first glance, I felt this was going to be a tight, low-scoring draw. And without Bale, I have a hard time try to figure out just how/where Wales will even score here. but then I looked further into Serbia, theyve conceded a goal in practically every home match, 11 out of their last 12 in all competitions vs quite a few teams weaker than Wales too (they were even LOSING in Georgia 0-1 in their last qualifier). So, the visitors being able to find the back of the net isnt as far-fetched as it seems. Wales is 4 pts behind in WC qualifying, so they can ill-afford to drop pts here.
All 12 of Serbias home matches since 2014 have seen at least 2 goals. the O/U 2 is a strong play for me.
Italy/Liecht over 2.5 halftime @+112 - reverse fixture back in November, on the road, Azzuri were leading 4-0 at the break. now they are at home in front of their own fans. If ya go back to previous years you'll notice Italians havent really covered large spreads; but Ventura has them playing much much different style than Conte. not interested in game total as they may very well just use the 2nd half as a defensive practice session.
Womens Friendly:
USA -1 @+110 - any time I see USA gals getting less than -200 juice vs a non-power it catches my attention. i feel this is an over-reaction to their recent performance. they should thump Norway today. yes, they played god-awful vs Pia's (USA's former coach) Sweden team a few days ago. that same Sweden team which booted them from the Olympics and made it all way to the final only to lose to Germany. USA featured a lineup whom never played together (actually, just got together as they all played for their club teams on June 3rd) & threw in a bunch of young gals as HC Ellis experimented. they were outshot, 2-10 in corners, and sweden controlled most of the possession. yet STILL won 1-0. USA still has the deepest bench in the world and for this match according to what Im reading, Ellis is putting in a few more of the regulars and with a couple days of reviewing film, and listening to how poorly they played; doesnt matter whom their opponent is.
Norway is a decent side in womens soccer, a longtime power many years ago and trying to get back to elite status, they have bunch of nice wins this year but just feel they are going to be overmatched with the lineup Ellis is expected to put out. womens soccer is different than the mens in the sense that theres fewer opportunities to have meaningful tournaments/games, so every Friendly is taken seriously. Common opponent: Norwegians barely beat Switz 2-1 at home in April, the same Switz team the USA destroyed twice 6 months ago 4-0, 5-1 with almost the same lineup as what's expected today.
scr*w it, plunking a little more on this one. against all common sense, and ignoring the fact that -- up until yesterday --- ive totally s*cked all week long.
Asane to win @-133, Asane/Arendal over 3 @+118 - nice little gem here. Asane currently in mid-table (10th of 16 teams), in large part due to their poor away record. at home they are unbeaten (2-3-0, 10/5 goals); and theyve played 4 teams currently in the top half of the table. so this is a pretty decent home team.
In a normally high scoring league, visitors Arendal, newcomers to this division are in 15th place & are at/near the bottom in most offensive categories. expecting a solid home win.
Bolivia:
Bolivar -1.5 @-125 - when opposites collide. 1st place Bolivar @ home: 9-0-0, 33/3 goals; and theyve scored AT LEAST 3 goals in all but 1 of their 9 matches. 10th place Wilstermann on road: 0-2-7, 4/17 goals. and in a league where goals come in bunches theyve been doing it with defense of late with just 5 total goals in their past 3 roadies. the reason for their poor showing in league is their Copa Lib involvement where they suprisingly have advanced out of Group stage. dont see the visitors scoring here so im not touching the O/U.
San Jose/Blooming over 3.5 @+145 - just going to continue riding Bloomings road woes. 6 of the past 7 roadies have seen 4+ goals. and the last H2H resulted in a 3-3 draw.
back later with USA/Mex thoughts.... not saying a d*mn thing till I am 100% certain of Arenas lineup.
Asane to win @-133, Asane/Arendal over 3 @+118 - nice little gem here. Asane currently in mid-table (10th of 16 teams), in large part due to their poor away record. at home they are unbeaten (2-3-0, 10/5 goals); and theyve played 4 teams currently in the top half of the table. so this is a pretty decent home team.
In a normally high scoring league, visitors Arendal, newcomers to this division are in 15th place & are at/near the bottom in most offensive categories. expecting a solid home win.
Bolivia:
Bolivar -1.5 @-125 - when opposites collide. 1st place Bolivar @ home: 9-0-0, 33/3 goals; and theyve scored AT LEAST 3 goals in all but 1 of their 9 matches. 10th place Wilstermann on road: 0-2-7, 4/17 goals. and in a league where goals come in bunches theyve been doing it with defense of late with just 5 total goals in their past 3 roadies. the reason for their poor showing in league is their Copa Lib involvement where they suprisingly have advanced out of Group stage. dont see the visitors scoring here so im not touching the O/U.
San Jose/Blooming over 3.5 @+145 - just going to continue riding Bloomings road woes. 6 of the past 7 roadies have seen 4+ goals. and the last H2H resulted in a 3-3 draw.
back later with USA/Mex thoughts.... not saying a d*mn thing till I am 100% certain of Arenas lineup.
back later with USA/Mex thoughts.... not saying a d*mn thing till I am 100% certain of Arenas lineup.
GL to all
It was nice to get rid of Klinsman, but the fact that Arena is still calling up Zusi tells you all you need to know. There's no doubt he's a better "coach" aka leader than Klinsman, but he's not any better tactically. He's being romanticized a bit for his 2002 run, but the reality is he was fired with good reason because of his stubborn insistence on sticking to a system instead of adapting to his players. 0-2-1 witha fluky draw vs. the Azurri and an embarrassing performance in the opening game.
That said, if he does somehow or another play Fabian Johnson at left back instead of Vilafaña, and use the other midfielders he has, I might be ready to sit up and take notice. If Villafaña is in a left back, it will be open season down his side. He can hold his own vs. Venezuela or T&T but Mexico will embarrass him.
back later with USA/Mex thoughts.... not saying a d*mn thing till I am 100% certain of Arenas lineup.
GL to all
It was nice to get rid of Klinsman, but the fact that Arena is still calling up Zusi tells you all you need to know. There's no doubt he's a better "coach" aka leader than Klinsman, but he's not any better tactically. He's being romanticized a bit for his 2002 run, but the reality is he was fired with good reason because of his stubborn insistence on sticking to a system instead of adapting to his players. 0-2-1 witha fluky draw vs. the Azurri and an embarrassing performance in the opening game.
That said, if he does somehow or another play Fabian Johnson at left back instead of Vilafaña, and use the other midfielders he has, I might be ready to sit up and take notice. If Villafaña is in a left back, it will be open season down his side. He can hold his own vs. Venezuela or T&T but Mexico will embarrass him.
if thats the future of USA womens............ we are in trouble. gone are those years where all we need to do is show up.
boof, when in doubt.... head to bolivia
Loose, nice dialogue on Arena, totally agree. havent made up my mind but hanging a +500 is tempting as h*ll for one of the top 5 rivalries on the planet.
"There's no doubt he's a better "coach" aka leader than Klinsman, but he's not any better tactically." ive been critical of Arena a long time. everyone has an opinion abt Klinnsmannn, just never had the right type of players for the system he wanted to employ.
when we went up 2-0 last thursday, without any real threat, USA had 3-4 players whom had yellows (if they picked up 1 more theyd miss the game today); Arena left them all in. i mean, thts just stupid/risky. but its that halftime interview, you catch that?:
Arena shaking his head saying something along the lines of he's "mad that USA didnt show a sense of urgency to begin the game with". excuse me.......... ur the HC, i thought that was YOUR job to ensure that happens.
i think Wood should be paired with Pulisic, we freaking need pace up front. and Bradley needs to play higher up.... dont even get me started with him. what good is it when the man whom is spposed to direct your offense is always back there alongside the defenders?
i think fabian is getting the nod tonight. havent looked yet.
if thats the future of USA womens............ we are in trouble. gone are those years where all we need to do is show up.
boof, when in doubt.... head to bolivia
Loose, nice dialogue on Arena, totally agree. havent made up my mind but hanging a +500 is tempting as h*ll for one of the top 5 rivalries on the planet.
"There's no doubt he's a better "coach" aka leader than Klinsman, but he's not any better tactically." ive been critical of Arena a long time. everyone has an opinion abt Klinnsmannn, just never had the right type of players for the system he wanted to employ.
when we went up 2-0 last thursday, without any real threat, USA had 3-4 players whom had yellows (if they picked up 1 more theyd miss the game today); Arena left them all in. i mean, thts just stupid/risky. but its that halftime interview, you catch that?:
Arena shaking his head saying something along the lines of he's "mad that USA didnt show a sense of urgency to begin the game with". excuse me.......... ur the HC, i thought that was YOUR job to ensure that happens.
i think Wood should be paired with Pulisic, we freaking need pace up front. and Bradley needs to play higher up.... dont even get me started with him. what good is it when the man whom is spposed to direct your offense is always back there alongside the defenders?
i think fabian is getting the nod tonight. havent looked yet.
Mexico/USA over 2.5 @-103, draw @+320 - back in November Mexico went off as slight favorites and beat USA 2-1 on road. tonight some places have them in the -200's & USA a massive +550 dog; as tempting as it appears, I cannot see the Yanks winning here. but the ONE thing im focusing on is the flow of the match. trying not to overanalyze everything but one of teh USA biggest weaknesses (Pulisic is exempt) is the fact that they CANNOT RUN & THINK with the ball at their feet, and they are terrible with pressure; and when you play Mexico you need to be quick thinking cuz they are gonna come at you 200 mph all over the field. especially at home. Bradley is in deep sh*t tonight.
As much as Id LOVE to see the Yanks pull it off, Id rather err on the side of caution: look at the standings:
Mex -13
CR - 8
USA -7
Pan -6
if im not mistaken, 1st tiebreaker goes to the total points in the H2H's between the teams involved. As much as this rivalry is heated, Osorio isnt an idiot, 1st place is important, he's NOT going to risk throwing the kitchen sink forward if this match is close with 15-20 mins remaining. get the draw, and further on down the road if theres a tie scenario theyd have 4 pts to USA's 1. if the Yanks win, theyre 3 pts behind and suddenly ALL of Mexicos remaining matches become important again. thats my thinking.
and for the USA, grabbing a pt here is as good as a win. either way, ONE of these hits and a 2-2 draw is not out of the question either.
this should be a good one, what we saw vs Trinidad will not be the same tonight, thats one thing Im fairly certain of besides the goal scoring chances each team is expected to have.
1st half over 1.5 @+175 - i feel this is going to be a pretty open match to start with. nice price too.
Mexico/USA over 2.5 @-103, draw @+320 - back in November Mexico went off as slight favorites and beat USA 2-1 on road. tonight some places have them in the -200's & USA a massive +550 dog; as tempting as it appears, I cannot see the Yanks winning here. but the ONE thing im focusing on is the flow of the match. trying not to overanalyze everything but one of teh USA biggest weaknesses (Pulisic is exempt) is the fact that they CANNOT RUN & THINK with the ball at their feet, and they are terrible with pressure; and when you play Mexico you need to be quick thinking cuz they are gonna come at you 200 mph all over the field. especially at home. Bradley is in deep sh*t tonight.
As much as Id LOVE to see the Yanks pull it off, Id rather err on the side of caution: look at the standings:
Mex -13
CR - 8
USA -7
Pan -6
if im not mistaken, 1st tiebreaker goes to the total points in the H2H's between the teams involved. As much as this rivalry is heated, Osorio isnt an idiot, 1st place is important, he's NOT going to risk throwing the kitchen sink forward if this match is close with 15-20 mins remaining. get the draw, and further on down the road if theres a tie scenario theyd have 4 pts to USA's 1. if the Yanks win, theyre 3 pts behind and suddenly ALL of Mexicos remaining matches become important again. thats my thinking.
and for the USA, grabbing a pt here is as good as a win. either way, ONE of these hits and a 2-2 draw is not out of the question either.
this should be a good one, what we saw vs Trinidad will not be the same tonight, thats one thing Im fairly certain of besides the goal scoring chances each team is expected to have.
1st half over 1.5 @+175 - i feel this is going to be a pretty open match to start with. nice price too.
Loose, when I saw that starting lineup? i get inserting Wood & Yedlin, but Beasley & Ream?? was thinking Arena is "either going to look like a genius or an idiot in a few hours"
well, nice end to the day with that draw & over. well deserved point for Yanks with a little luck involved.
Loose, when I saw that starting lineup? i get inserting Wood & Yedlin, but Beasley & Ream?? was thinking Arena is "either going to look like a genius or an idiot in a few hours"
well, nice end to the day with that draw & over. well deserved point for Yanks with a little luck involved.
I loved that lineup, and thought the same thing as you - certainly had Mexico thinking and Osorio had to make a sub in the 1st half to adjust. What a gooolaaazo from Bradley!
I have no idea why Beasley was a better choice than Fabian Johnson at left back (because he's not) but it worked out I guess, and he didn't play poorly by any stretch. Arriola was another head scratcher but that Acosta kid - if Jermaine Jones ever plays again, then well...and when I saw Zusi come on as a sub arggghhhhh. Stop calling that slow old man into camp fcol.
I used to write for a website in the 00's that followed US soccer players abroad and talked to Beasley after the Lyon-PSV Champions league game in Lyon in 2005 (1-1) when he came in for the last 20 minutes. He had passed through the neutral zone and I missed him, but the PSV press guy went and told him that I was out there and he got off the bus and came back to talk to me. He was fantastic. Told me that he was faster than LD no matter what LD said, and he was faster than Frankie Hedjuk too in a sprint, but not if they ran around the block lol He's still at it at 35 and acquitted himself well I thought. I'm guessing it was a trust/familiarity issue
What made me laugh after the game was that Arena said they played to win, they didn't play not to lose. That was BS - Mexico outpossessed them 75-25 and they barely made any attempt to get forward for the last 30 minutes. I laid a nugget on the money line and should've played the draw too but alas.
There is talent on that US team these days, and he's got the depth to use 20 players over a tournament like he did SO well in 2002 but not so much in 2006 - hopefully Arena can put it to good use.
I loved that lineup, and thought the same thing as you - certainly had Mexico thinking and Osorio had to make a sub in the 1st half to adjust. What a gooolaaazo from Bradley!
I have no idea why Beasley was a better choice than Fabian Johnson at left back (because he's not) but it worked out I guess, and he didn't play poorly by any stretch. Arriola was another head scratcher but that Acosta kid - if Jermaine Jones ever plays again, then well...and when I saw Zusi come on as a sub arggghhhhh. Stop calling that slow old man into camp fcol.
I used to write for a website in the 00's that followed US soccer players abroad and talked to Beasley after the Lyon-PSV Champions league game in Lyon in 2005 (1-1) when he came in for the last 20 minutes. He had passed through the neutral zone and I missed him, but the PSV press guy went and told him that I was out there and he got off the bus and came back to talk to me. He was fantastic. Told me that he was faster than LD no matter what LD said, and he was faster than Frankie Hedjuk too in a sprint, but not if they ran around the block lol He's still at it at 35 and acquitted himself well I thought. I'm guessing it was a trust/familiarity issue
What made me laugh after the game was that Arena said they played to win, they didn't play not to lose. That was BS - Mexico outpossessed them 75-25 and they barely made any attempt to get forward for the last 30 minutes. I laid a nugget on the money line and should've played the draw too but alas.
There is talent on that US team these days, and he's got the depth to use 20 players over a tournament like he did SO well in 2002 but not so much in 2006 - hopefully Arena can put it to good use.
Loose, similar thoughts. loved that lineup as he matched speed with speed I thought Yedlin had an outstanding game and his runs down the side kept their defense honest.
speed is always overrated, especially if your defense is organized and uses the offside trap effectively. so inserting Beasely and his experience worked out for USA. he isnt big enuff to knock players off the ball but Mexicos front line isnt exactly imposing.
Arena ruined a "perfect" night for himself with that comment. right at the start of the 2nd half Wood was all alone up front, Pulisic & Bradley were both backed up 10-15 yards as USA parked the bus. I wonder what Arena had in that bottle of water he was sipping from?
talent?? - h*ll yes. one thing I always supported Klinns. on was he wanted the best players to stay in Europe to develop. dont "come back home" to the US to play, and listen to all that BS 'ur not loyal' comments. Dempsey, Bradley, & Altidore coudnt hack it over there in Europe for reasons we could save for another thread someday. cuz if I get started on those 3 we'll be here all day long. LOL
Loose, similar thoughts. loved that lineup as he matched speed with speed I thought Yedlin had an outstanding game and his runs down the side kept their defense honest.
speed is always overrated, especially if your defense is organized and uses the offside trap effectively. so inserting Beasely and his experience worked out for USA. he isnt big enuff to knock players off the ball but Mexicos front line isnt exactly imposing.
Arena ruined a "perfect" night for himself with that comment. right at the start of the 2nd half Wood was all alone up front, Pulisic & Bradley were both backed up 10-15 yards as USA parked the bus. I wonder what Arena had in that bottle of water he was sipping from?
talent?? - h*ll yes. one thing I always supported Klinns. on was he wanted the best players to stay in Europe to develop. dont "come back home" to the US to play, and listen to all that BS 'ur not loyal' comments. Dempsey, Bradley, & Altidore coudnt hack it over there in Europe for reasons we could save for another thread someday. cuz if I get started on those 3 we'll be here all day long. LOL
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