Friend asked me to post this, I understand this tourney wont probably be on many peoples radars with the bulk of European countries swinging back into action. Though the quality of play leaves a lot to be desired; from a capping standpoint, it's been quite profitable. Used to be of high scoring matches, it has evolved. I cannot pinpoint exactly why --- it's africa.
So I thought i'd put some stuff out for the casual onlooker whom might not be familiar with this tourney to maybe even the experienced veteran whom might have overlooked angles or whatever.
This years tournament is being hosted in Gabon. 16 teams will be participating in 4 host cities. Decided to take some time to post some facts, thoughts, fun stuff, and general outlook of a tournament which tends to offer some value.
Some tidbits/angles:(please understand that in all reality none of this has any bearing on the outcomes of the matches)
1. 7 host countries (Ghana 1978), Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, South Africa,Tunisia, Egypt (2006), in past 20 tourneys have won the whole thing.
2. using the 20 tourney example in #1, the host country has made it to the semifinals in 14 out of the last 20 tourneys.
Gabon is currently a piss poor 110th FIFA rankings - dont get me started on FIFA - they're not even in the top 20 in their entire continent. just some food for thought. I made a nice payday with Equitorial Guinea in 2015, but backing Gabon is gonna take some steel cajones.
of those 14 hosts to make it to the semis, 7 of them had won their Group outright.
3. if you are an "over" capper like myself, and considering the 'over' in any of the group matches the lines are gonna be tempting. If you must, perhaps playing the O/U 2.0. Just be prepared to pay a lot of juice.
IN 2015, using the 2.5 over/under, the under was 19-5 in Group matches.
IN 2013, using the 2.5 over/under, the under was 16-8 in Group matches.
IN 2012, using the 2.5 over/under, it was even at 12-12 in Group matches.
The qualifications leading to this tournament, the under 2.5 hit at an 82-62 clip. (57%)
4. In 2015 13 out of the 24 Group stage matches resulted in a draw.(55%)
In 2013 13 out of the 24 Group stage matches resulted in a draw. (55%)
In 2012 it turned out to be a blip in the radar as there were just 6 draws.
In both 2010, 2008 14 of the 24 Group matches resulted in a draw. (59%)
During qualifications, 64 of the 144 matchesresulted in draws (45%)
compared to any of the other major Intl tourneys, my point is: draws in Africa tend to happen a lot more than anywhere else. by a wide margin.
who knows... maybe this 2017 version will reflect a "correction" and ALL the matches will go 'over' the total and there will be an outright winner in each match; hey..... it's Africa. we will see, but generally, like most major tournaments ......expect some low scores to start out with.
5. 'over-addicts' like myself should wait until the knockout stages. this is usually when all hell breaks loose.
This is also a tourney where the underdogs bark loudly:
- In 2015 hosts Equitorial Guinea and their 120th ranking --- whom were the lowest seeded team --- made it all the way to the semis. If anyone watched their Qtr-final matchup with Tunisia, that was a spectacle beyond your craziest imagination. FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS. including a brawl on the field. The next match they lost to Ghana where the refs had to halt play so that they can pick up the bottles from the field. reminds me of a Boca-River Plate match. hey..... its Africa.
In 2013 Burkina Faso pulled a "Portugal" on everyone winning just one game the entire tournament and advancing to the Finals.
In 2012 80th ranked Zambia pulled a "Greece", came out of nowhere and won the whole bloody thing. (i think they just had one European player on their squad)
hey............. its Africa. but your guess is as good as mine trying to figure out which team has the glass slipper this year. no matter which team you pick, i'd reply "good choice!!!"