Copa América Day #1
Chile vs. Ecuador
1.55 - 4.36 - 7.30
Anything but a victory for Chile would be extremely surprising in the opening match of Copa América. Bettors also feel the same way. This match opened mid May with Chile as 1.75 favourite. Since then, La Roja has been bet down to a much steeper price of 1.55.
The steady stream of money bet on Chile went a long way in bringing this line down, but the injuries to Ecuador have certainly played their part as well.
La Tri announced earlier in the month that Felipe Caicedo, Antonio Valencia, Angel Mena and Michel Arroyo would all be out, but news late Wednesday that attacker Jaime Ayovi will also be out with injury adds another blow to the already decimated offence.
New Ecuador head coach Gustavo Quinteros said in a press conference Wednesday night that he is confident his team can counter the Chilean attack and come out of the opening match with three points. With his offence in shambles, he really has no other choice but to sit back and wait, but I don't see his first game as Ecuador head coach one he will want to remember.
Chile has an elite midfield featuring Arturo Vidal, Jorge Valdiva and Matias Fernandez. Behind them, the best goalkeeper in the tournament, Claudio Bravo. Ecuador and their backup laden offence simply do not have the ability to create space and score against this experienced Chile back half.
Ecuador has lost 9 consecutive Copa América matches dating back to 2001. Thursday evening will see that streak extend to 10 consecutive matches. It may take time, but Alexis Sanchez, Eduardo Vargas and this dynamic Chilean attack we have grown accustomed to seeing will be too much for Ecuador to handle.
Chile at 1.55 for 5pts
Copa América Day #1
Chile vs. Ecuador
1.55 - 4.36 - 7.30
Anything but a victory for Chile would be extremely surprising in the opening match of Copa América. Bettors also feel the same way. This match opened mid May with Chile as 1.75 favourite. Since then, La Roja has been bet down to a much steeper price of 1.55.
The steady stream of money bet on Chile went a long way in bringing this line down, but the injuries to Ecuador have certainly played their part as well.
La Tri announced earlier in the month that Felipe Caicedo, Antonio Valencia, Angel Mena and Michel Arroyo would all be out, but news late Wednesday that attacker Jaime Ayovi will also be out with injury adds another blow to the already decimated offence.
New Ecuador head coach Gustavo Quinteros said in a press conference Wednesday night that he is confident his team can counter the Chilean attack and come out of the opening match with three points. With his offence in shambles, he really has no other choice but to sit back and wait, but I don't see his first game as Ecuador head coach one he will want to remember.
Chile has an elite midfield featuring Arturo Vidal, Jorge Valdiva and Matias Fernandez. Behind them, the best goalkeeper in the tournament, Claudio Bravo. Ecuador and their backup laden offence simply do not have the ability to create space and score against this experienced Chile back half.
Ecuador has lost 9 consecutive Copa América matches dating back to 2001. Thursday evening will see that streak extend to 10 consecutive matches. It may take time, but Alexis Sanchez, Eduardo Vargas and this dynamic Chilean attack we have grown accustomed to seeing will be too much for Ecuador to handle.
Chile at 1.55 for 5pts
Copa América Day #2
SB: $21,200
CB: $21,475
Mexico vs. Bolivia
1.60 - 4.15 - 6.60
Former Mexico striker Francisco Fonseca told reporters yesterday that Mexican fans should be modest and not expect much from this squad as they are backups and do not have the talent to compete for the title.
Although not supportive, Fonseca is correct in his assessment. Mexico is without a combined 247 caps and 54 goals represented by Javier Hernandez, Giovanni Dos Santos, Hector Herrera and keeper Guillermo Ochoa…just to name a few.
The expected lineup for El Tri on Friday will feature Real Madrid reserve Raul Jimenez, Rafael Marquez and Javier Aquino from Rayo Vallecano. The remainder of the squad are all domestic Liga MX players.
The biggest weakness of Mexico will be their midfield which should put a ton of pressure on the defence led by veteran Marquez to step up and hold the back line. While Bolivia is not known for their ability to stretch defences and find the back of the net, they should not have to in order to keep competitive with this Mexican side and their lacklustre offence.
All eyes on Bolivia will be watching 27 year old Marcelo Moreno, El Verde´s main goal scoring threat. But leadership on this team comes from captain Ronald Raldes who has 85 caps at defence for Bolivia.
I am hoping midfielder Pablo Escobar gets a fair chance on the field. At 36, Pablo is coming off a fantastic showing in Copa Libertadores and the domestic Bolivian league. He is very crafty and a ton of fun to watch. If this unknown Mexican midfield gives him time, he can make them pay.
The majority of bettors won on Thursday night with Chile and undoubtedly the majority will be eager to back the big favourite again on Friday night. The price on Mexico opened at 1.40 but has since risen to 1.60. This is due to all the squad adjustments. I expect this price to drop back down as Mexico money comes in throughout Friday.
With Chile and Ecuador up ahead, I expect this to be a very cautiously played match by both sides. Neither side has an offence to be feared and both have their experienced players on defence. I will gladly put a goal from the handicap in my back pocket and fade Mexico, something I plan to do all tournament.
Bolivia +1 at 1.95 for $175
Copa América Day #2
SB: $21,200
CB: $21,475
Mexico vs. Bolivia
1.60 - 4.15 - 6.60
Former Mexico striker Francisco Fonseca told reporters yesterday that Mexican fans should be modest and not expect much from this squad as they are backups and do not have the talent to compete for the title.
Although not supportive, Fonseca is correct in his assessment. Mexico is without a combined 247 caps and 54 goals represented by Javier Hernandez, Giovanni Dos Santos, Hector Herrera and keeper Guillermo Ochoa…just to name a few.
The expected lineup for El Tri on Friday will feature Real Madrid reserve Raul Jimenez, Rafael Marquez and Javier Aquino from Rayo Vallecano. The remainder of the squad are all domestic Liga MX players.
The biggest weakness of Mexico will be their midfield which should put a ton of pressure on the defence led by veteran Marquez to step up and hold the back line. While Bolivia is not known for their ability to stretch defences and find the back of the net, they should not have to in order to keep competitive with this Mexican side and their lacklustre offence.
All eyes on Bolivia will be watching 27 year old Marcelo Moreno, El Verde´s main goal scoring threat. But leadership on this team comes from captain Ronald Raldes who has 85 caps at defence for Bolivia.
I am hoping midfielder Pablo Escobar gets a fair chance on the field. At 36, Pablo is coming off a fantastic showing in Copa Libertadores and the domestic Bolivian league. He is very crafty and a ton of fun to watch. If this unknown Mexican midfield gives him time, he can make them pay.
The majority of bettors won on Thursday night with Chile and undoubtedly the majority will be eager to back the big favourite again on Friday night. The price on Mexico opened at 1.40 but has since risen to 1.60. This is due to all the squad adjustments. I expect this price to drop back down as Mexico money comes in throughout Friday.
With Chile and Ecuador up ahead, I expect this to be a very cautiously played match by both sides. Neither side has an offence to be feared and both have their experienced players on defence. I will gladly put a goal from the handicap in my back pocket and fade Mexico, something I plan to do all tournament.
Bolivia +1 at 1.95 for $175
Copa América Day #3
Uruguay vs. Jamaica
1.36 - 5.06 - 11.25
The words “defending champions” typically carry a lot of weight, however, this Uruguay side has some key differences from the squad that hoisted the trophy in 2011.
First up front on offence, where Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez will both be absent from the lineup. Suarez (83 caps and 42 goals) is forced to sit this one out after his biting incident a year ago and Forlan (112 caps and 36 goals) retired from international play after the World Cup.
The absence of these two starts leaves Uruguay quite inexperienced on offence. Aside from PSG striker Edinson Cavanni, (72 caps and 27 goals) the next biggest representation of goals for Uruguay comes from Abel Hernandez who has 9 in 19 caps.
If La Celeste are going to be successful this Copa América it is going to start from the defence. Although Diego Lugano was left off the squad, they still have captain Diego Godin and Maxi Pereira who both have a ton of experience to lead the way.
Jamaica enters this tournament as the long shot. On paper they appear in great form but a closer look reveals the lack of competition they have beaten.
There is no point making a case about the talent Jamaica has and why they might upset, Uruguay, because it is quite unlikely. However, at the highest level, the gap between talent level is often greatly over estimated, as is the case here.
The truth is that this Uruguay team has a lot of adjusting to do and a lot of goals to make up for. There has been a ton of money coming in on Uruguay since the lines opened in May, but this line has gone the opposite way to Jamaica. At one point, Jamaica +1.5 was available at 2.10. Currently, Jamaica +1.5 can be found as low as 1.65.
Until Uruguay shows me that they can make up for the goals lost, I will fade them from blowing out opponents. I see Jamaica keeping this match closer than expected.
Jamaica +1.5 at 1.80 for 1.5pts
Copa América Day #3
Uruguay vs. Jamaica
1.36 - 5.06 - 11.25
The words “defending champions” typically carry a lot of weight, however, this Uruguay side has some key differences from the squad that hoisted the trophy in 2011.
First up front on offence, where Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez will both be absent from the lineup. Suarez (83 caps and 42 goals) is forced to sit this one out after his biting incident a year ago and Forlan (112 caps and 36 goals) retired from international play after the World Cup.
The absence of these two starts leaves Uruguay quite inexperienced on offence. Aside from PSG striker Edinson Cavanni, (72 caps and 27 goals) the next biggest representation of goals for Uruguay comes from Abel Hernandez who has 9 in 19 caps.
If La Celeste are going to be successful this Copa América it is going to start from the defence. Although Diego Lugano was left off the squad, they still have captain Diego Godin and Maxi Pereira who both have a ton of experience to lead the way.
Jamaica enters this tournament as the long shot. On paper they appear in great form but a closer look reveals the lack of competition they have beaten.
There is no point making a case about the talent Jamaica has and why they might upset, Uruguay, because it is quite unlikely. However, at the highest level, the gap between talent level is often greatly over estimated, as is the case here.
The truth is that this Uruguay team has a lot of adjusting to do and a lot of goals to make up for. There has been a ton of money coming in on Uruguay since the lines opened in May, but this line has gone the opposite way to Jamaica. At one point, Jamaica +1.5 was available at 2.10. Currently, Jamaica +1.5 can be found as low as 1.65.
Until Uruguay shows me that they can make up for the goals lost, I will fade them from blowing out opponents. I see Jamaica keeping this match closer than expected.
Jamaica +1.5 at 1.80 for 1.5pts
Argentina vs. Paraguay
1.31 - 5.65 - 12.50
The entire world is on Argentina and the handicap, and it is no surprise with the firepower they possess offensively. Normally, that is reason enough to make me want to back the underdog. Add in the fact that the underdog in this case has veterans on defence in at keeper, I am almost surprising myself I am passing.
However, as I said in my preview, this Paraguay side is broken. Ever since current Argentina coach, Geradro Martino left them four years ago after a runner up finish to Uruguay, they have been in a downward spiral. Coming in to this tournament, they have won just 2 of their previous 14 matches and finished last in CONMEBOL qualifying. They lack leadership and any sign of the Paraguayan football we came to enjoy during their surprise run at the 2010 World Cup.
Argentina won all six of their World Cup matches a year ago by one goal and have quite the recent history of not blowing opponents out in international competition. I would be weary of backing them to win by multiple goals, especially today with the large amount of money bet on them having such little affect on the market.
Good match to sit and enjoy, but not a good match for betting.
Argentina vs. Paraguay
1.31 - 5.65 - 12.50
The entire world is on Argentina and the handicap, and it is no surprise with the firepower they possess offensively. Normally, that is reason enough to make me want to back the underdog. Add in the fact that the underdog in this case has veterans on defence in at keeper, I am almost surprising myself I am passing.
However, as I said in my preview, this Paraguay side is broken. Ever since current Argentina coach, Geradro Martino left them four years ago after a runner up finish to Uruguay, they have been in a downward spiral. Coming in to this tournament, they have won just 2 of their previous 14 matches and finished last in CONMEBOL qualifying. They lack leadership and any sign of the Paraguayan football we came to enjoy during their surprise run at the 2010 World Cup.
Argentina won all six of their World Cup matches a year ago by one goal and have quite the recent history of not blowing opponents out in international competition. I would be weary of backing them to win by multiple goals, especially today with the large amount of money bet on them having such little affect on the market.
Good match to sit and enjoy, but not a good match for betting.
Copa América Day #2
SB: $21,200
CB: $21,475
Mexico vs. Bolivia
1.60 - 4.15 - 6.60
Former Mexico striker Francisco Fonseca told reporters yesterday that Mexican fans should be modest and not expect much from this squad as they are backups and do not have the talent to compete for the title.
Although not supportive, Fonseca is correct in his assessment. Mexico is without a combined 247 caps and 54 goals represented by Javier Hernandez, Giovanni Dos Santos, Hector Herrera and keeper Guillermo Ochoa…just to name a few.
The expected lineup for El Tri on Friday will feature Real Madrid reserve Raul Jimenez, Rafael Marquez and Javier Aquino from Rayo Vallecano. The remainder of the squad are all domestic Liga MX players.
The biggest weakness of Mexico will be their midfield which should put a ton of pressure on the defence led by veteran Marquez to step up and hold the back line. While Bolivia is not known for their ability to stretch defences and find the back of the net, they should not have to in order to keep competitive with this Mexican side and their lacklustre offence.
All eyes on Bolivia will be watching 27 year old Marcelo Moreno, El Verde´s main goal scoring threat. But leadership on this team comes from captain Ronald Raldes who has 85 caps at defence for Bolivia.
I am hoping midfielder Pablo Escobar gets a fair chance on the field. At 36, Pablo is coming off a fantastic showing in Copa Libertadores and the domestic Bolivian league. He is very crafty and a ton of fun to watch. If this unknown Mexican midfield gives him time, he can make them pay.
The majority of bettors won on Thursday night with Chile and undoubtedly the majority will be eager to back the big favourite again on Friday night. The price on Mexico opened at 1.40 but has since risen to 1.60. This is due to all the squad adjustments. I expect this price to drop back down as Mexico money comes in throughout Friday.
With Chile and Ecuador up ahead, I expect this to be a very cautiously played match by both sides. Neither side has an offence to be feared and both have their experienced players on defence. I will gladly put a goal from the handicap in my back pocket and fade Mexico, something I plan to do all tournament.
Bolivia +1 at 1.95 for $175
Copa América Day #2
SB: $21,200
CB: $21,475
Mexico vs. Bolivia
1.60 - 4.15 - 6.60
Former Mexico striker Francisco Fonseca told reporters yesterday that Mexican fans should be modest and not expect much from this squad as they are backups and do not have the talent to compete for the title.
Although not supportive, Fonseca is correct in his assessment. Mexico is without a combined 247 caps and 54 goals represented by Javier Hernandez, Giovanni Dos Santos, Hector Herrera and keeper Guillermo Ochoa…just to name a few.
The expected lineup for El Tri on Friday will feature Real Madrid reserve Raul Jimenez, Rafael Marquez and Javier Aquino from Rayo Vallecano. The remainder of the squad are all domestic Liga MX players.
The biggest weakness of Mexico will be their midfield which should put a ton of pressure on the defence led by veteran Marquez to step up and hold the back line. While Bolivia is not known for their ability to stretch defences and find the back of the net, they should not have to in order to keep competitive with this Mexican side and their lacklustre offence.
All eyes on Bolivia will be watching 27 year old Marcelo Moreno, El Verde´s main goal scoring threat. But leadership on this team comes from captain Ronald Raldes who has 85 caps at defence for Bolivia.
I am hoping midfielder Pablo Escobar gets a fair chance on the field. At 36, Pablo is coming off a fantastic showing in Copa Libertadores and the domestic Bolivian league. He is very crafty and a ton of fun to watch. If this unknown Mexican midfield gives him time, he can make them pay.
The majority of bettors won on Thursday night with Chile and undoubtedly the majority will be eager to back the big favourite again on Friday night. The price on Mexico opened at 1.40 but has since risen to 1.60. This is due to all the squad adjustments. I expect this price to drop back down as Mexico money comes in throughout Friday.
With Chile and Ecuador up ahead, I expect this to be a very cautiously played match by both sides. Neither side has an offence to be feared and both have their experienced players on defence. I will gladly put a goal from the handicap in my back pocket and fade Mexico, something I plan to do all tournament.
Bolivia +1 at 1.95 for $175
Copa América Day #4
SB: $21,200
CB: $21,765
Colombia vs. Venezuela
1.48 - 4.40 - 8.45
A year ago, the excitement about the Colombian national team reached an all time high here in Medellin. The atmosphere for those two weeks in Brazil was unlike anything I have witnessed in my life, and I am glad the entire world got to share in our excitement. Now that Colombia is back in the discussion of World Football, it is time for them to make a statement, and winning this Copa América could be exactly what they were looking for.
This team has a lot going for them. They have an absolutely terrifying smorgasbord of offensively weapons, including all time Colombian leading scorer Falcao and golden boot winner James Rodriguez. They also have Carlos Bacca and Jackson Martinez who are coming off extremely impressive seasons over in Europe. If that wasn't enough, they also have Teo Gutierrez from River Plate. Simply put, finding the back of the net wont be an issue for this club.
If there is an area of concern, it is the defence, who will be without long time leader Mario Yepes after he retired from international play after 102 caps. Juan Camillo Zuniga of Napoli and Pablo Armero of Flamengo in Brazil lead what is a fairly untested and inexperienced back four. David Ospina, keeper from Arsenal will have to work double time in net as well as keeping the defence in check.
Luckily for the Colombian defence, they open vs. a Venezuela side who have the worst offence in all of South America. During their 16 World Cup qualifying matches, Venezuela mustered just 14 goals. In their past 10 matches, they have been held to one goal or less 5 times.
I will be curious to see how the offence holds up in the weather on Sunday. During the press conferences on Saturday, numerous Venezuelan players and media personnel were talking about how cold they were while out in Rancagua. The average temperature at Venezuelan training grounds is in the low to mid 20’s, while in Rancagua, it is currently winter, with an average temperature for game time of just 10 degrees.
Thankfully this is not an isolated game so a lot of the money is spread out between the two favourites, with more money being bet on Brazil than Colombia, leaving some value in the line. The most notable movement was immediately after open when Colombia was bet down from 1.583 to 1.40 and Venezuela was driven up from 8.50 to 10.30. In the past month the market has settled down in the middle and I see this as a fair price.
While Venezuela is improving year after year, they are not currently on a level to compete with Colombia and Brazil. This team still has a long way to go. I think this will be a good match for the Colombian defence to get their footing, but the space they create on offence and skill they have in the midfield should generate too many opportunities for Venezuela to handle.
Colombia at 1.48 for $565
Copa América Day #4
SB: $21,200
CB: $21,765
Colombia vs. Venezuela
1.48 - 4.40 - 8.45
A year ago, the excitement about the Colombian national team reached an all time high here in Medellin. The atmosphere for those two weeks in Brazil was unlike anything I have witnessed in my life, and I am glad the entire world got to share in our excitement. Now that Colombia is back in the discussion of World Football, it is time for them to make a statement, and winning this Copa América could be exactly what they were looking for.
This team has a lot going for them. They have an absolutely terrifying smorgasbord of offensively weapons, including all time Colombian leading scorer Falcao and golden boot winner James Rodriguez. They also have Carlos Bacca and Jackson Martinez who are coming off extremely impressive seasons over in Europe. If that wasn't enough, they also have Teo Gutierrez from River Plate. Simply put, finding the back of the net wont be an issue for this club.
If there is an area of concern, it is the defence, who will be without long time leader Mario Yepes after he retired from international play after 102 caps. Juan Camillo Zuniga of Napoli and Pablo Armero of Flamengo in Brazil lead what is a fairly untested and inexperienced back four. David Ospina, keeper from Arsenal will have to work double time in net as well as keeping the defence in check.
Luckily for the Colombian defence, they open vs. a Venezuela side who have the worst offence in all of South America. During their 16 World Cup qualifying matches, Venezuela mustered just 14 goals. In their past 10 matches, they have been held to one goal or less 5 times.
I will be curious to see how the offence holds up in the weather on Sunday. During the press conferences on Saturday, numerous Venezuelan players and media personnel were talking about how cold they were while out in Rancagua. The average temperature at Venezuelan training grounds is in the low to mid 20’s, while in Rancagua, it is currently winter, with an average temperature for game time of just 10 degrees.
Thankfully this is not an isolated game so a lot of the money is spread out between the two favourites, with more money being bet on Brazil than Colombia, leaving some value in the line. The most notable movement was immediately after open when Colombia was bet down from 1.583 to 1.40 and Venezuela was driven up from 8.50 to 10.30. In the past month the market has settled down in the middle and I see this as a fair price.
While Venezuela is improving year after year, they are not currently on a level to compete with Colombia and Brazil. This team still has a long way to go. I think this will be a good match for the Colombian defence to get their footing, but the space they create on offence and skill they have in the midfield should generate too many opportunities for Venezuela to handle.
Colombia at 1.48 for $565
Brazil vs. Peru
1.34 - 5.47 - 10.71
I want to bet on Peru…but my mind tells me better.
Lets be honest, no one knows what Brazil really is. Yes, their run in friendlies since the World Cup has been great, but those were…friendlies. Dunga is back and he is pushing a defence first mentality, but he has to deal with an inexperienced goaltender. There have been a number of roster moves and a lot remains to be seen.
I think the absence of Oscar is devastating. Without the playmaker in the lineup, the midfield is led by…Willan (26 caps)? The amount of pressure this puts on Neymar could prove too much to handle. We have all heard, it takes a team to win a tournament, but quite frankly, Neymar is the team. He represents 43 of the 95 goals on this Brazilian squad. If he has a down game, or heaven forbid cant be on the pitch as we saw last year, this team is in trouble.
Brazil has taken a ton of money in the past month from bettors, yet the market has moved against them considerably. This match opened a month ago with Brazil installed as 1.20 favorites. Currently they are up to 1.34 and can be found as high as 1.41. The handicap has faded significantly as well going from Brazil -1.5 (1.60) at open to the current price of Brazil -1.5 (2.05).
As I said, I would love to bet against Brazil, but any value with Peru is already gone. I will definitely be watching, but I wont be betting this match.
Brazil vs. Peru
1.34 - 5.47 - 10.71
I want to bet on Peru…but my mind tells me better.
Lets be honest, no one knows what Brazil really is. Yes, their run in friendlies since the World Cup has been great, but those were…friendlies. Dunga is back and he is pushing a defence first mentality, but he has to deal with an inexperienced goaltender. There have been a number of roster moves and a lot remains to be seen.
I think the absence of Oscar is devastating. Without the playmaker in the lineup, the midfield is led by…Willan (26 caps)? The amount of pressure this puts on Neymar could prove too much to handle. We have all heard, it takes a team to win a tournament, but quite frankly, Neymar is the team. He represents 43 of the 95 goals on this Brazilian squad. If he has a down game, or heaven forbid cant be on the pitch as we saw last year, this team is in trouble.
Brazil has taken a ton of money in the past month from bettors, yet the market has moved against them considerably. This match opened a month ago with Brazil installed as 1.20 favorites. Currently they are up to 1.34 and can be found as high as 1.41. The handicap has faded significantly as well going from Brazil -1.5 (1.60) at open to the current price of Brazil -1.5 (2.05).
As I said, I would love to bet against Brazil, but any value with Peru is already gone. I will definitely be watching, but I wont be betting this match.
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