I've shown some inconsistency lately which I hope can turn into a good stretch soon. This feels like a very good opportunity to have a very "green" day. Shared thoughts below. _____________________
Astreas Tripolis - RoPs
Astreas Tripolis, a solid organized team particularly strong at home where they finished with 10-6-1 in the Greek league and they beat teams such as PAOK, Olympiakos and Panathinaikos in front of their crowd. Playing in Greece is an experience, no matter the size of the club, the atmosphere is always something extra. Looking at the first leg, RoPs stood up (barely) and managed 1-1 at home, which means Astreas have the advantage with their away goal in hand. The result is acceptable but the quality gap is much wider than the scoreline showed.
RoPs are a team that belongs on the bottom half in Finland, a small club who mainly collect their points at home. But this is a long flight trip on about 5 hours to Greece, where the wether is incredibly humid (something that is a big clash of differences in terms of environment changes for RoPs). Expect a very defensive minded RoPs side, who will rely on occasional counter attacks. Astreas on home soil are not an easy task for any team in the Europa League competition. The home advantage, along with the quality of the squad that dominated even in the first leg in Finland, makes me lean heavily towards a -1 Asian Handicap option at very decent 1.83 and also "Both teams to Score" - NO @ 1.73, not seeing the low scoring RoPs score on the road in a difficult environment. _____________________
Zimbru - CSKA Sofia
Two similar teams squaring off, located not far from each other as the trip from Bulgaria to Moldova is not awfully far. The first leg was a close one, finishing 1-1 in Bulgaria which means the Moldovans Zimbru got the better out of that game by carrying home an away goal to build on, and CSKA Sofia should be disappointed with the score, because the road game in Zimbru is not a walk in the park. The squads are equal in terms of strenght, even if Bulgaria is a better league with more competition, Zimbru and Sheriff are two powerhouses in Moldova. They comfortably beat Shkendija in the first round, a team from Macedonia (neighbours to Bulgaria) - so they have gotten a grip of the Balkan football by know, so there is no surprises with how CSKA will play.
In the first match it was Zimbru who played the better game, and CSKA never reached their full potential. While I expect CSKA to push the gas from the very start, I do not see Zimbru going on the defense to keep their away goal lead. A draw and home victory is not out of sight, unless CSKA stun me and put up their best performance in a very long time. But while CSKA push the offense, spaces and opportunities will appear for Zimbru to punish, just like they did in Bulgaria. I am liking the 1X option to a very solid price too - 1.83 is taken. _____________________
Inter Baku - Elfsborg
As I was rambling on about in the first leg between these teams, I highlighted the dog price on Inter Baku which was set at around +400 when they were on the road, and they won by 0-1 which is the result they bring back to Azerbaidzjan to build on. The price was crazy in the first leg, I expected something like +200 on Baku, and now, at home in Azerbaidzjan, we get +138 for the straight up win which I like a lot, especially on home soil.
As a Swede myself, our league and teams are often very overrated (we are worse than we appear odds wise) as there was no reason Elfsborg should have been favored at 1.55 in the first match against this kind of opponent. The only reason for that favoring price is because people tend to think "I can't even point out Azerbaidzjan on the map, so their football league must be awful, I can't even name a player" .. well, if you dig a little deeper, most clubs are very wealthy in that region, way more money than i.e a team from Sweden, and in fact the teams are made up by majority of foreign players who sit on big salaries - which effectively makes them able to compete on this level. Regardless of what the first leg showed, I still believe the price is too big on Inter Baku once again (even if they might appear a little more careful this time), I was expecting something like 1.80 for the straight up win. The Elfsborg team traveled this morning, so they have only had about one day to adjust to the 4-hour time zone difference, and schedule a practice session before the game. Moreover, they travel without Jon Jönsson (most experienced and solid center back in the team). I like Baku here much because of the price and the fact that Elfsborg have a very long trip in the bodies and rarely thrive on road games. Hit me up with the home win. _____________________
Siroki Brijeg - Mlada Boleslav
Even though the Czechs Mlada Boleslav won the first leg by narrow 2-1, the Bosnians Siroki Brijeg got the cruical away goal for the home leg where they are incredibly strong (13 straight clean sheets).. they were 12-3-0 at home with an incredible goal differential of 44-7, and this is their time to shine if they want to keep their hopes alive in Europe.
Mlada Boleslav went 3-6-6 on the road in their domestic league, which reveals that they are not extremely comfortable. A road trip to Bosnia, in the environment that they offer there - huge patriotism, is always a factor to consider. How Mlada are favorites on the road here is beyond me, as they were not overly superior at their own turf which was also reflected in the 2-1 score line. The Bosnians Siroki are far from clueless in this game, and we get a massive Draw No Bet price at +100 / 2.00 which I happily take. Their home record is to be taken serious, and Mlada are not better than the Bosnian domestic teams, value odds considering we will see a very offensive Siroki team chasing that one goal that can be enough to qualify. With the game in mind, Siroki only needs 1-0 or more to qualify, which is very possible to me. I am therefor also throwing some on "Siroki to Qualify" at +220 / 3.20, too high to skip. _____________________
Summary of the menu and plays
1. Astreas Tripolis -1 AH @ 1.83 (1/10) 2. Astreas Tripolis v Rops: BTTS - NO @ 1.73 (1/10) 3. Zimbru 1X @ 1.83 (1/10) 4. Inter Baku @ 2.38 (1/10) 5. Sirki Brijeg DnB @ 2.00 (1/10) 6. Siroki Brijeg to qualify @ 3.20 (1/10)
I've shown some inconsistency lately which I hope can turn into a good stretch soon. This feels like a very good opportunity to have a very "green" day. Shared thoughts below. _____________________
Astreas Tripolis - RoPs
Astreas Tripolis, a solid organized team particularly strong at home where they finished with 10-6-1 in the Greek league and they beat teams such as PAOK, Olympiakos and Panathinaikos in front of their crowd. Playing in Greece is an experience, no matter the size of the club, the atmosphere is always something extra. Looking at the first leg, RoPs stood up (barely) and managed 1-1 at home, which means Astreas have the advantage with their away goal in hand. The result is acceptable but the quality gap is much wider than the scoreline showed.
RoPs are a team that belongs on the bottom half in Finland, a small club who mainly collect their points at home. But this is a long flight trip on about 5 hours to Greece, where the wether is incredibly humid (something that is a big clash of differences in terms of environment changes for RoPs). Expect a very defensive minded RoPs side, who will rely on occasional counter attacks. Astreas on home soil are not an easy task for any team in the Europa League competition. The home advantage, along with the quality of the squad that dominated even in the first leg in Finland, makes me lean heavily towards a -1 Asian Handicap option at very decent 1.83 and also "Both teams to Score" - NO @ 1.73, not seeing the low scoring RoPs score on the road in a difficult environment. _____________________
Zimbru - CSKA Sofia
Two similar teams squaring off, located not far from each other as the trip from Bulgaria to Moldova is not awfully far. The first leg was a close one, finishing 1-1 in Bulgaria which means the Moldovans Zimbru got the better out of that game by carrying home an away goal to build on, and CSKA Sofia should be disappointed with the score, because the road game in Zimbru is not a walk in the park. The squads are equal in terms of strenght, even if Bulgaria is a better league with more competition, Zimbru and Sheriff are two powerhouses in Moldova. They comfortably beat Shkendija in the first round, a team from Macedonia (neighbours to Bulgaria) - so they have gotten a grip of the Balkan football by know, so there is no surprises with how CSKA will play.
In the first match it was Zimbru who played the better game, and CSKA never reached their full potential. While I expect CSKA to push the gas from the very start, I do not see Zimbru going on the defense to keep their away goal lead. A draw and home victory is not out of sight, unless CSKA stun me and put up their best performance in a very long time. But while CSKA push the offense, spaces and opportunities will appear for Zimbru to punish, just like they did in Bulgaria. I am liking the 1X option to a very solid price too - 1.83 is taken. _____________________
Inter Baku - Elfsborg
As I was rambling on about in the first leg between these teams, I highlighted the dog price on Inter Baku which was set at around +400 when they were on the road, and they won by 0-1 which is the result they bring back to Azerbaidzjan to build on. The price was crazy in the first leg, I expected something like +200 on Baku, and now, at home in Azerbaidzjan, we get +138 for the straight up win which I like a lot, especially on home soil.
As a Swede myself, our league and teams are often very overrated (we are worse than we appear odds wise) as there was no reason Elfsborg should have been favored at 1.55 in the first match against this kind of opponent. The only reason for that favoring price is because people tend to think "I can't even point out Azerbaidzjan on the map, so their football league must be awful, I can't even name a player" .. well, if you dig a little deeper, most clubs are very wealthy in that region, way more money than i.e a team from Sweden, and in fact the teams are made up by majority of foreign players who sit on big salaries - which effectively makes them able to compete on this level. Regardless of what the first leg showed, I still believe the price is too big on Inter Baku once again (even if they might appear a little more careful this time), I was expecting something like 1.80 for the straight up win. The Elfsborg team traveled this morning, so they have only had about one day to adjust to the 4-hour time zone difference, and schedule a practice session before the game. Moreover, they travel without Jon Jönsson (most experienced and solid center back in the team). I like Baku here much because of the price and the fact that Elfsborg have a very long trip in the bodies and rarely thrive on road games. Hit me up with the home win. _____________________
Siroki Brijeg - Mlada Boleslav
Even though the Czechs Mlada Boleslav won the first leg by narrow 2-1, the Bosnians Siroki Brijeg got the cruical away goal for the home leg where they are incredibly strong (13 straight clean sheets).. they were 12-3-0 at home with an incredible goal differential of 44-7, and this is their time to shine if they want to keep their hopes alive in Europe.
Mlada Boleslav went 3-6-6 on the road in their domestic league, which reveals that they are not extremely comfortable. A road trip to Bosnia, in the environment that they offer there - huge patriotism, is always a factor to consider. How Mlada are favorites on the road here is beyond me, as they were not overly superior at their own turf which was also reflected in the 2-1 score line. The Bosnians Siroki are far from clueless in this game, and we get a massive Draw No Bet price at +100 / 2.00 which I happily take. Their home record is to be taken serious, and Mlada are not better than the Bosnian domestic teams, value odds considering we will see a very offensive Siroki team chasing that one goal that can be enough to qualify. With the game in mind, Siroki only needs 1-0 or more to qualify, which is very possible to me. I am therefor also throwing some on "Siroki to Qualify" at +220 / 3.20, too high to skip. _____________________
Summary of the menu and plays
1. Astreas Tripolis -1 AH @ 1.83 (1/10) 2. Astreas Tripolis v Rops: BTTS - NO @ 1.73 (1/10) 3. Zimbru 1X @ 1.83 (1/10) 4. Inter Baku @ 2.38 (1/10) 5. Sirki Brijeg DnB @ 2.00 (1/10) 6. Siroki Brijeg to qualify @ 3.20 (1/10)
It was a 0-0 game in Georgia when Zestafoni were playing as hosts, but the match did not lack excitement or scoring chances - most of them for Zestafoni who were closer to the leading goal but were not sharp in front of goal. Trnava did what they could and threatened sometimes but overall, a fair 0-0 score line. Ahead of the return in Slovakia, Zestafoni come with a full team without any injuries which is positive news, their best striker Gelashvili was rested in the last game due to some pain as he only played for 65 minutes. Trnava are a bigger and more physical team who tend to play goal-galore games at home, even though the team have two consecutive 0-0 games (both on the road).
Both teams have shown quite bad accuracy in front of goal lately, especially Trnava as I noticed in their last league game against the newcomers (0-0) despite having the command throughout the match. The Trnava coach said ahead of this game that it is "50/50" against Zestafoni, not sure where he got that from because Trnava should be clear favorites, but perhaps not as big favorites as they are here (1.57), because Zestafoni are not that shabby on the road either and can put up a good fight. The odds keep increasing on Zestafoni which I am glad for because that generates a good price on the +1 AH @ 1.81 currently which I locked in.
Two teams with inability to score, but Trnava have really seen some goal-orgies at home recently, perhaps it will explode here for both sides, non of them are harmless up front, so the over 2.5 is worth a look too, and the BTTS is quite interesting too. However, as I like - backing a road dog with the asian is good enough, especially two teams who will play a quite tactical game - if Zesta scores first, expect more goals. If Trnava scores first, might be stingy rest of the game.
Summary of the menu and plays
1. Astreas Tripolis -1 AH @ 1.83 (1/10) 2. Astreas Tripolis v Rops: BTTS - NO @ 1.73 (1/10) 3. Zimbru 1X @ 1.83 (1/10) 4. Inter Baku @ 2.38 (1/10) 5. Sirki Brijeg DnB @ 2.00 (1/10) 6. Siroki Brijeg to qualify @ 3.20 (1/10)
It was a 0-0 game in Georgia when Zestafoni were playing as hosts, but the match did not lack excitement or scoring chances - most of them for Zestafoni who were closer to the leading goal but were not sharp in front of goal. Trnava did what they could and threatened sometimes but overall, a fair 0-0 score line. Ahead of the return in Slovakia, Zestafoni come with a full team without any injuries which is positive news, their best striker Gelashvili was rested in the last game due to some pain as he only played for 65 minutes. Trnava are a bigger and more physical team who tend to play goal-galore games at home, even though the team have two consecutive 0-0 games (both on the road).
Both teams have shown quite bad accuracy in front of goal lately, especially Trnava as I noticed in their last league game against the newcomers (0-0) despite having the command throughout the match. The Trnava coach said ahead of this game that it is "50/50" against Zestafoni, not sure where he got that from because Trnava should be clear favorites, but perhaps not as big favorites as they are here (1.57), because Zestafoni are not that shabby on the road either and can put up a good fight. The odds keep increasing on Zestafoni which I am glad for because that generates a good price on the +1 AH @ 1.81 currently which I locked in.
Two teams with inability to score, but Trnava have really seen some goal-orgies at home recently, perhaps it will explode here for both sides, non of them are harmless up front, so the over 2.5 is worth a look too, and the BTTS is quite interesting too. However, as I like - backing a road dog with the asian is good enough, especially two teams who will play a quite tactical game - if Zesta scores first, expect more goals. If Trnava scores first, might be stingy rest of the game.
Summary of the menu and plays
1. Astreas Tripolis -1 AH @ 1.83 (1/10) 2. Astreas Tripolis v Rops: BTTS - NO @ 1.73 (1/10) 3. Zimbru 1X @ 1.83 (1/10) 4. Inter Baku @ 2.38 (1/10) 5. Sirki Brijeg DnB @ 2.00 (1/10) 6. Siroki Brijeg to qualify @ 3.20 (1/10)
Thanks for the write-ups Sweem, definitely liking the Inter Baku price at first loook, might be a play for me...GL to you
Definately a good price on Baku, they're a better team technically than Elfsborg, the only thing that goes "against" the pick is that they already have an away goal to build on and wont come off as desperate hunting for goals, but Elfsborg aren't that good of a team, Swedish teams struggle big time in Europe, so liking the price a lot :)
Thanks for the write-ups Sweem, definitely liking the Inter Baku price at first loook, might be a play for me...GL to you
Definately a good price on Baku, they're a better team technically than Elfsborg, the only thing that goes "against" the pick is that they already have an away goal to build on and wont come off as desperate hunting for goals, but Elfsborg aren't that good of a team, Swedish teams struggle big time in Europe, so liking the price a lot :)
Irritating day, while I am happy for Elfsborg being a swede, it was very undeserved ^^ Siroki made their worst performance in years, first home loss in ages. Astreas did their job, except keeping a clean sheet. Zimbru kept CSKA out of reachand played a 0.0 game, while Zesta lost all confidence after Trnavas quick goal after 4 minutes and then another one just before halftime.
Shoutout to my Georgian heroes Chikhura though, even though I did not pick them - It's a favorite of mine aside, the only Georgian team to advance after beating...Bursaspor(!) huge upset. Great team to back because they're always underdogs but always cause upsets. Count on me to be on Chikhura in the future.
The day did not go as planned, would've wished to see the fairness go my way based on performances, but in EL - everything happens, literally, that's the charm of it as well.
Tomorrow's menu looks rather dead, so a gambling-free day.
Irritating day, while I am happy for Elfsborg being a swede, it was very undeserved ^^ Siroki made their worst performance in years, first home loss in ages. Astreas did their job, except keeping a clean sheet. Zimbru kept CSKA out of reachand played a 0.0 game, while Zesta lost all confidence after Trnavas quick goal after 4 minutes and then another one just before halftime.
Shoutout to my Georgian heroes Chikhura though, even though I did not pick them - It's a favorite of mine aside, the only Georgian team to advance after beating...Bursaspor(!) huge upset. Great team to back because they're always underdogs but always cause upsets. Count on me to be on Chikhura in the future.
The day did not go as planned, would've wished to see the fairness go my way based on performances, but in EL - everything happens, literally, that's the charm of it as well.
Tomorrow's menu looks rather dead, so a gambling-free day.
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