2012-2013 Soccer Record: 196-169 +53.19 units
2013-14 YTD: Soccer Record: 109-90.5 +24.97 units
Had a chance to update the logs to include the 3 straight twitter losses and the 1-1 world cup qualifying day yesterday.
So far for tonight, one game locked in
Brazil Serie A 8:00 PM EST
Criciuma v Portuguesa over 2.5 -110 (2 units)
A couple of teams floating in the bottom half of the table hook up tonight in a game that should see at least 3 goals scored.
Let’s start with the home side Criciuma first. They have seen the over go 7-3 in their last 10 home games in the league Portuguesa has gone 6-4 over 2.5 goals in their last 10 road games in the league including 4 of the last 6. Overall, Portuguesa is on a 4-1 “over" 2.5 run in their last 5 games played including 2 of those 4 hitting 4 goals. Criciuma has seen the over go 5-2 in their last 7 games overall and are coming off a 5 goal game that saw them beat Vasco da Gama 3-2.
But down to the heart of the matter. These two teams are two of the highest “over” probability teams in the league.
- Criciuma for example have gone 20-8 “over” 2.5 this season
- In Criciuma’s 14 home games the over has gone 10-4
- Portuguesa have gone 18-10 “over” in their 28 league games.
- Portuguesa has seen the over go 8-6 in their 14 road games
Criciuma has only kept 2 clean sheets in 14 home games and on the season have allowed 2 or more goals in 15 of their 28 games. Granted that Portuguesa has only scored 2 or more goals in 2 of their 14 road games the fact that the hosts tonight have only 3 clean sheets gives them a good probability of netting at least a goal. As for the home side scoring it helps that Portuguesa also has only 2 away clean sheets and have conceded 2 or more in 8 of their 14 road games.
Criciuma is tied for 2nd last in the league in most home goals conceded on the season and has allowed the 2nd most goals overall in the league giving the visitors hope of scoring tonight. Portuguesa is 5th worst in goals against in the entire league so as you can see we have to woeful defenses playing each other tonight.
Only 2 points separate these two teams in the table and both teams are in relegation battles which force them to have to open up and attack to get the full 3 points given that the league is now 28 games in and time is quickly running out. A draw really does nothing for these teams at this time so with two teams forced to attack each other leaving gaps exposed on two already horrible defenses, we should see goals tonight.
Reading the Brazilian press, I note that the Portuguesa head coach is trying to calm his team by not trying to make this a must win game but considering they are only 2 points ahead of Criciuma, he did say that the team must look for goals early and try to secure the points early, not wanting to leave it late. To me that sounds like he will attack the hosts from the start.
Both these teams are averaging 15 shots conceded per game. We should see plenty of chances tonight and my power ratings have 3.98 as the handicap with 2-2 the most likely score.
There's my handicap of the game. Feel free to pass, fade or tail. I leave that up to you.
Good luck.
I'm looking at the rest of the card and will post any qualifying plays if I find them.