2012-2013 Soccer Record: 196-169 +53.19 units
2013-14 YTD: Soccer Record: 101-81.5 +29.31 units
Been on a nice little 9-1-2 run on the twitter plays since Saturday but haven’t had the time to post in both spots (covers). As I’ve said from the outset, all plays will be kept together in one log. Let's see if we can keep it going tonight. I finally found some time to do some write ups so here are my two plays for tonight in Brazil. I will analyze the rest of the card and report back or tweet any late additions.
Cortiba v Santos over 2.25 -111 2 units
The over is 7-2 in the last 9 head to head meetings between these two clubs. Santos has seen the over go 8-2 in their last 10 road games against teams that sit in the bottom 6 of the table. Going back even further, this angle has seen the over go 15-5 in Santos’ last 20 ROAD games against teams in the bottom 6 of the table.
When looking at how teams do against teams in various forms of the table, then it is notable that Cortiba is also trending over against clubs sitting in the middle third of the table as they have gone 7-3 ‘over’ in their last 10 against teams in the middle third of the table.
Santos is 5-1 ‘over’ 2.5 in their last 6 away games in the league. Cortiba has seen them allow 6 goals in their last 3 home games (2 goals in each game) but at the same time of those 3 games there were two that ended in 2-2 draws so you can see their home form is slipping defensively while they are still able to score.
Santos has seen the total go over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 games overall in the league while Cortiba has also been trending over of late going 6-3 ‘over’ 2.5 in their last 9 games overall in the league.
So, we have situational, current form and head to head data pointing to a higher scoring match that bookmakers anticipate and my spreadsheets also concur, with a cumulative rating of 3.56 for this match implying we should see at least 3 goals.
When reading the headlines I also noted that Santos has added 3 forwards to their list of available players for this match and based on the anticipated starters, look to be pressing and attacking from the get go. I’m expecting an open match with a lot of goals.
Nautico v Botafogo over 2.5 +105 2 units
Nautico sits at the bottom of the table. Most importantly, their recently appointed manager has stated he "MUST" AND "WILL" play attacking football the rest of the season. More on that later. First a look at the data.
Two teams with high trending over numbers in their home away categories.
The over is 4-3 in the last 7 head to head meetings however of late, they have been seeing high scoring results. With two of the last three head to head meetings seeing 4 or more goals. What makes this more important is recent form of the clubs.
Nautico has seen the over go 5-2 in their last 7 games. Their defense looks horrid coming off a 4-1 beating at the hands of Cruzeiro. As for the visitors Botafogo, their away form has started to trend over as evidenced by the fact that 5 of their last 7 road games have also gone over the total. So, we have a recent form probability of 71% pointing to the over right out of the gate.
Overall, Nautico has seen the over prevail in 8 of their last 13 home matches while Botafogo has gone over in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
Looking at trends vs. the table, Nautico who currently sits in the bottom 6 have seen the over go 4-1 in their last 5 home games against top 6 clubs. Botafogo who sits in the top 6 of the table has seen the over go 5-5 in their last 10 against bottom 6 clubs but they have scored 2 or more goals in 7 of those 10 games. This is significant when we look at the fact that Nautico has conceded 2 or more in 7 of their 13 home games. Greater weight is given to these numbers because Nautico have by far the worst home defense in the league, allowing 23 goals and the worst defense in the entire league overall. Botafogo is the second best goal producing team on the road in Brazil.
Statistically, the numbers point to Botafogo scoring at minimum 2 goals tonight. So where's the rest going to come from? Botafogo, despite being in 4th place, has managed to keep only 1 clean sheet in 13 road games so with their new brand of all out attack minded football, I figure that Nautico should find the back of the net in this one.
Back to the recent Nautico coaching change. New manager Marcelo Martelotte has stated that he will play attacking football until the end of the season because they need to win the majority of their remaining games in order to avoid relegation. They have nothing to lose, sitting at the bottom of the table and must win. This attack minded football coupled with their weak defense means that while they might be scoring, they will be conceding goals as well.