WEDNESDAY SOCCER PLAYS

2012-13 Covers Posted Soccer: 166-138 +56.79 units

Brazil v Mexico over 3 +117 2 units

Going to take the odds on this one given the relative probability of at least 3 goals in this one and considering that two of my models give me 4 total goals while the other 2 landed on 3.

My projections gave me Brazil 3-1, 3-1, 2-2 and 2-1 in this match and it is important to note that Mexico cannot risk sitting back in this one given that they must get a result out of this game in order to advance.

Brazil v Italy in my opinion will determine who finishes 1-2 in this group and it is important for the teams to finish first in the group to avoid a clash with Spain in the knock out stage.  As a result, expect Brazil to attack the goal in search of a few goals here, especially if they get the lead so that they can be in the driver’s seat if it should come down to the tie-break.

I’m not confident in Julio Ceasar playing in goalfor Brazil.  While he is capable, he is still a bit slower than he was a couple of years ago and in my view, can be had.  Brazil is not know for outstanding defensive football and their tendency to play a high back line at times could provide opportunity for Hernandez who will be supported today in what should be an offensive minded game plan by the Mexicans in this almost must win game for them.

Concacaf teams are not known for goal scoring however, this team does have the potential to score goals and it really makes me scratch my head as to why they aren’t clicking up front.  The fat that Hernandez knows David Luiz well from playing against him in the Premier League should allow the striker to find ways to exploit him.  He is good but is prone to making some man marking errors that Mexico should try to exploit.

All 5 of Brazil’s last 5 international games have seen at least 3 total goals and are now in a match in which both teams seek the full 3 points.

Mexico can score against Brazil and my  view they will attack the net to try to open up a Brazil team that is still lacking on the defensive side of the ball. 

The play is over 3 +117 for a nice payout. Expect 4 goals in this one but given that Mexico’s need for a win and in a game that I expect them to pressure the Brazilian net in, I am reluctant to lay anything more than 1 goal with Brazil. If there is to be a first round upset, this game might be it.  Not confident enough to bet it though.  Remember, Mexico recently beat Brazil 2-0 in a friendly and beat them 2-1 in the Olympics.  This team CAN beat them given that they have beaten Brazil in 6 of the last 11 head to head matchups. 

Mexico is no slouch boasting 8 players with 50 or more international caps.  Hernandez and dos Santos will create chances up front in this game and I expect an entertaining, open affair.

My final power rating for this total comes in a 4.22 and considering my spreadsheet results, I will play the over and leave the side bet alone.

Keep in mind that as the host country and because they are Brazil, the line is somewhat inflated towards the home team. The fact is that they have struggled coming into this tournament and Scolari is still trying to find his best group of players for the World Cup. 

Good luck everyone.  Back later with Italy write-up.

ITALIA V JAPAN

Italy -130 v Japan to win 2 units

Over 2.5 +136 2 units

This is an Italian side that has the ability to play like world beaters one game and look classless in their next. However, friendly matches aside, when the games actually count they always come to play.  This game will feature Mario Balotelli again in the lone striker role but the positive for Italy is that El Shaawaray, Balotelli’s teammate at Milan is available and could be inserted into the game. 

I am not happy about hearing the news that Abate will not start for  this game as I feel it somewhat weakens the defense.  Italy has a knack for somehow conceding a goal and I would not put it past the Japanese to score one in this game given that they have the speed up front to create some chances and trouble the Italian goal.  Consider too that the Italians have come off grueling domestic league campaigns and have recently played a qualifier and a couple friendlies in which they started to look tired near the end of the match.  Despite beating Brazil late in their 2-1 victory, the Italian squad looked tired at the end of the game and Japan might be able to net a late goal which is why it is vitally important the Azzurri get off to a good start in this game.

Remember, Italy wants this win today to avoid having to need a result against Brazil.  Second place for Italy will do just fine so that they avoid Japan but don’t think for a moment that the team doesn’t know the implications of leaving the door open having to play Brazil for a result in their final game so they will look to get it done today.

Japan knows that a result today will give them a good shot v Mexico to gain points and perhaps sneak in depending on how the results fall.  They will attack in this game and Italy will play on the counter.   What I like about this game is that Italy spends so much time in their friendlies experimenting formations and players which is why their friendly games can often be deceiving.  Prandelli usually builds his teams to be able to have the right personnel on the pitch to easily move to a 4-3-3 when needed.

Both teams are expected to go with offensive minded formations in this game playing a 4-2-3-1 with Italy having the option depending on who is on the pitch to go to a 4-3-3 which would make sense if El Sha enters the game, especially with support from Montolivo in the midfield.  They still managed to score 2 goals against Mexico considering they went with a defensive 4-3-2-1 formation which shows you the depth and abilities of this squad.

I would prefer to see El Sha alongside Milan teammate Balotelli instead of Giaccherini  considering 40% of Italy’s attacks were focussed on the left side of the pitch where El Sha would normally play.  I would be willing to see how long prandelli waits before making a switch if need be, perhaps even putting in Gilardino and Balotelli to give the Italians the size advantage up front against the undersized Japanese defense.  One thing is for sure, Prandelli is more offensive minded than the Italian coaches of old and it shows in how he builds his squads.

The over 2.5 has gone 4-2 in Japan’s last 6 international games.  Over 2.5 is 4-1 in Italy’s last 5 international games.

Italy had 16 shots in an entertaining game against Mexico and conceded 10.  Japan managed to get 11 shots off v Brazil and allowed 13.

Projections for this game are all in Italy’s favor; 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and 2-1.  I make the total for this game 3.77 and will go with the over 2.5 foregoing the odd associated with the 2.25 line which IS available if you want a safer option. 

I'll outta here and should be home at about the 15' mark of the Brazil game.  I won't be in the forums but will be tweeting throughout the matches.  Good luck everyone.

Remember, MLS games tonight.  I've isolated 3 plays that meet initial criteria and will run the numbers between the Brazil and Italy games and will post the plays.

Cheers and good luck to everyone today

"dude" is all pumped up because he called the OT last night in South Beach

keep on truckin' Fever!