Monday Confederations Cup

The line makers have made Nigeria a 3 goal favorite for a reason.  Tahiti is out of their league in this tournament.  They will need to try to keep up with Chelsea's Mikel and other quality players like Akpala (Werder Bremen),  Ideye (Dynamo Kiev) and Musa (CSKA Moscow) but will be without Onazi (Lazio) who is nursing a knee injury.

Tahiti doesn't have one player who plays outside of their domestic league. Not one. They are all domestic league players. Semi-pro at best with 4 players actually being family.

Tahiti lost 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualifiers in the Oceana region and comes in to this tournament in poor form.  They fluked their way into this tournament and I don't look forward to the day they play Spain.  We may see a possession record for the Spanairds in that game considering they held the ball for 70% of the match v Uruguay.

Tahiti recently lost a friendly vs Chile's under 20 team by a 7-0 margin. They also lost a prep match friendly to Brazilian second division squad America Mineiro who fielded mainly reserves in that game.

Motivation is one item I often turn to when handicapping a team's desire to "run up the score". The top two teams of this division qualify for the elimination round. Spain has already beaten Uruguay. Spain will win this division by beating Nigeria and Tahiti. 9 points are about as close to a sure bet as it comes.

Uruguay is almost assured 3 points against Tahiti as is Nigeria. Therefore, 2nd place is between Nigeria and Uruguay. IF that game is drawn, goals will be the difference in the tie-break so, assuming Uruguay will slap around Tahiti when they play (as is expected), THIS is Nigeria's chance to make Uruguay hot under the collar and add some heat to the 2nd place fight. (Nigeria has been in great form lately while Uruguay has been all over the place) As a result, I expect Nigeria to be on the front foot from the opening whistle and look for as many goals as they can.

Put it to you this way, even if Tahiti parks the bus and tries to defend all game, eventually Nigeria will let them come forward to open up space for their counter attack.

When all is said and done, I think Tahiti will try to defend but won't be able to. This game should open up and provide some goals.

The Reason I am not backing Nigeria laying the 3 goals is that Tahiti has said in their press releases they are going to play their best not to win but not get embarrassed. Also, Nigeria’s youngsters at times might be too eager to attack and open up a hole or two.  IF Tahiti is going to score, this is the game they are going to probably have the most chance scoring in.  Although this game can end up finishing 5-0 or 7-0, I want the bookies to give me a better price if I have to lay 3 goals in a football match.  Nigeria arrived late to the tournament due to financial bonus issues. Should they get off to a big lead, they may park the bus to give some players rest.

In any event, having to win by 4 goals is always asking a lot in a big tournament no matter the opponent so I will back the over in this match.

Good luck.

Remember, my spreadsheets are based on potential starting lineups and even after stripping out many of Nigeria's veterans and inputting their younger squad that is likely to start today, my model still spit out a 3-1 final in that scenario.

Cheers and good luck.  I will be in meetings the rest of the day but should be home in time for kick-off.

Thanks, fever. FWIW though, I took Nigeria -3 at +108. I don't think Tahiti will score.